Analysis Summary of soybean meal early tray in August 22, 2014

Overnight CBOT volatility was strong, maintaining the near strong and far weak pattern.

On the fundamentals, the US will announce the crop inspection results tonight. Currently, soybean growth in most States is optimistic, and this will continue to put pressure on the November contract. In recent months, contracts have remained firm due to supply shortage.

In addition, the weekly crop report was released last night. As of the week ending in August 14, the U.S. soybean sales in 13/14 were 86.3 thousand tons, net sales were-89.6 thousand tons, new sales in 14/15 were 1.4806 million tons, and net sales were 1.4206 million tons. The sales volume in the New Year is higher than market expectation, so the current price is very attractive to international buyers.

Offshore discounts remain stable, import costs remain in the current range, and domestic profits have improved somewhat from the early stage.

Yesterday's soybean meal spot price steadily fell 10-20 yuan/ton, the market turnover is light. However, there is not much pressure on the factory inventory and continuous downstream recovery will support soybean meal. The quote of rapeseed meal is stable, the transaction is very light, and there is no speculation motivation in the market.

Oil and fat rose steadily and small yesterday, mainly due to the boosting effect of the ephemeral disks. However, the overall demand for Grease is still weak, and under high inventory pressure, the short-term rise cannot stimulate downstream buyers to pick up the goods, and the deal is light.

Yesterday, most of the agricultural products in the market closed up, leading to a rebound in oil and fat.

In terms of meal category, the soybean meal was pulled up low yesterday and the warehouse was reduced. It showed that it was not optimistic about the space below. At the same time, the main funds were too many, and the Bulls concentrated and strong. Combined with the disk action, the low order was obvious, it is expected that soybean meal will become stronger later. Rapeseed meal is relatively weak. Although it is also increased, it is difficult to achieve good performance in the absence of attention due to the outflow of main funds.

Oil and fat rebounded sharply yesterday, but the price is still in a low position and should not be overly optimistic. In addition, there is no obvious support in the capital structure. We suggest you wait and see.

Corn continues to be adjusted at a high level, and the price is temporarily supported at the cost line in the early stage, so stay tuned.

Conclusion: The structure of CBOT spot shortage and long term pressure remains unchanged, so the disk area will continue to be close, strong, and weak. The crop inspection results will be announced tonight. Previous reports show that soybean production is good, however, the market has been expected, and it is not expected that there will be too many unexpected changes. The domestic market lacks bright spots in the short term, but the demand for meal classes is much stronger than that for oil products. The relationship between oil meal and meal classes will not change substantially. However, in the absence of direction guidance from external disks, it is recommended that the packages be smaller and shorter, and the grease can be smaller and shorter, all of which are short-term transactions. In addition, we recommend that you focus on the support of corn in the short-term cost line.

Analysis Summary of soybean meal early tray in August 22, 2014