Are you going to be robbed of your job by a machine?

1 I often say to students in class: "When you look for a job in the future, you must avoid doing jobs that are easily replaced by computers or robots." The word computer, the first to refer to a profession, is the kind of people who do computational work. It's already been eliminated, no one knows. When I was in college in the 90 's, students in finance and economics wanted to graduate, and they had to pass the ' Abacus Six ' exam, spent a lot of time learning, and now think about it. The era of intelligent robots will soon come, and if the work you do cannot be complementary to them, instead of being replaced by them, you will certainly lose your job. Don't think I alarmist, now big City College graduates of starting salary, than the street to send courier, than the restaurant washing dishes, rather than do domestic aunt, what do you think is the reason? "2 3 4 For more than more than 200 years after the Industrial Revolution, machines have slowly replaced many of the human manual labor, such as loading and unloading, which is the "first machine age". Now we are in the network and digital "The second Machine Age", the machine will slowly replace human's various mental work. 5 6 7 people usually think that machines can only do repetitive and simple work, and the human brain can do more complicated things. Not so. It is not suitable for machines to do, no matter how simple it may seem, the machine does not work well, such as tidying the room. Although there is now a sweeping robot, but the robot still difficult to fold clothes, wash cloth, change bed sheets. The size of the clothes is not fixed, each time the clothes are not fixed, so it is difficult for the robot to find clothes and fold it, at least for now. 8 9  　　 Ten and for machines to do, no matter how complex it seems, as long as you can follow certain rules, the machine will do better than people. Take stock analysts as an example, most of the stock analysts are noise, rambling bits of information, coupled with a number of false personal assumptions and interpretations, known as "judgment." It might be more informative and accurate if the machine were to do it. The machine can directly deal with the stock market data and the company's historical data, after the analysis of the model calculation, give a summary and forecast, the truth and the weather forecast is similar. Now on the Forbes homepage, there is a "science narrative" (narrativescience) section, full of various financial reports and analyses written by robots. For example, the "expected increase in Nike revenue" article at the end of 2014 is a machine that automatically generates text after analyzing various data. There is no machine written, except for the statement at the end of the article: "Through the unique artificial intelligence platform, the scientific narrative transforms the data into stories and insights." " One  　　  A  - In 2014, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Eric Kest Brencholsen and Andrew Maikfield, published the book "The Second Machine Age: work, progress and prosperity in the age of smart Technologies", a bestseller. The author asked three questions: Why is the second machine age, the intelligent machine age, unstoppable? How does this affect people's work and life? What are we going to do?  -  　　  the  - The most interesting part of the book is the first, which explains the three major features of technological progress in this era: Moore's law or exponential growth, digital information, combined innovation. Moore's law and exponential growth, to the effect that over the past 40 years, the same cost can buy the ability to calculate every year doubled. Doubling every year, from 1 to 2, from 2 to 4, from 4 to 8 ... It may not be anything, but the pace of growth is constant, accumulating to a certain stage, from 200 million to 400 million, 400 million to 800 million ... What people feel is the overwhelming, ever-changing technological progress.  -  　　  -  + For example, after 20 years seems to slow development, 2006 suddenly had a smartphone, and then everything changed, a variety of mobile services, internet finance, 3D printing and so on, concentrated together, this is the result of a number of levels of growth. Motorola's "mobile phone" in the early 90, in addition to as a brick defense, can only call, text messages can not be sent, the price is nearly 20,000 yuan, equivalent to 5000 pounds of pork. Now 20,000 dollars can only buy 2000 pounds of pork, but can buy 4 iPhone6 or 10 "millet", these phones can do countless things previously unimaginable. And in just more than 10 years, don't say Motorola mobile phone, even replace Motorola's Nokia phone, have vanished.  -  　　  +  A We've all seen the power of information digitalization. Once the information is digitized, it is possible to change our lives completely with exponential growth of computing power and storage capacity. When I was in primary school, a genuine tape to 10 yuan, imported more expensive. In high school, the original CD to 60 yuan, the import price is doubled, are more than 10 songs packaged to sell, can not be split. How many CDs can a billionaire buy? Now I use NetEase cloud music, unlimited amount, free.  at  　　  -  - The information will eventually be digitized. In a few years, children may not know what is called "book", the paper media may be extinct, will be digitized, so easy to carry, easy to retrieve. Costs can also fall sharply as a result of exponential growth. More importantly, after digitization, can be zero-cost accurate replication, easy to spread. Think of a childhood copy of a music tape, to high-quality blank tape, high-quality dual-card recorder, in order to ensure the effect, can not be played quickly, so it takes one hours ... -  　　  -  - In the face of endless information, modular innovation emphasizes the more effective combination and use of existing information, such as taxi software. Taxi service supply and demand are old problems, GPS positioning technology is also old, but coupled with mobile payment and social network friends in the circle of red envelopes to promote each other, combined is revolutionary. There are a lot of these links between the service provided by the car and the needs of the car people.  in  　　  -  toIf jobs and wages are categorized according to the skills required, there is a "two-high, middle-low" phenomenon in big cities in the United States and China. High-tech occupations and low-tech services (such as nannies and restaurant attendants) are rising and rising, while the average wage level in the middle is stagnant. High-tech practitioners, with technological advances, increased productivity and higher incomes, have driven their demand for low-tech services and increased incomes for low-skilled service providers. For example, many young couples working in big cities often hire nannies, and the wages of nannies are rising every year. And in the middle of the technical level of a lot of work, including a lot of nothing technical content of so-called white-collar work, may be in and machine competition, obvious disadvantage, lack of demand. Not only that, many of today's work is "outsourced" through the network, such as the need to buy computers and equipped with technical staff can rent the cloud, do not hire people can use the remote secretary and so on. People who know how to make better use of technology will have a rapid growth in productivity, serve and occupy an increasingly large market, and squeeze out a lot of people's jobs. In such times, education resources will become cheaper. Online education has risen and the diploma will continue to depreciate. Only those who take the initiative to obtain information and lifelong self-education have the ability to solve the endless problems and handle more work. Only those who are active in learning will be able to win in the competition of analyzing and dealing with a huge amount of information. If it's just passive adaptation, what's the difference between that and the machine? Machine work 24 hours a day, work 7 days a week, not lazy, no leave, not social security, not complaining about the boss, do not hate colleagues, do not look at the "Du Lala promotion in mind", and every year "wages" are lower than the previous year half, and it competition, you won?

Are you going to be robbed of your job by a machine?

Are you going to be robbed of your job by a machine?