Auction AD system-Traffic forecast

Flow forecast

There are three basic techniques in contract ads mentioned in the previous contract ad,1. Audience orientation,2. Click Forecast,3. Traffic forecast. Online Allocation can only be done on the basis of these three technologies , and this section focuses on flow forecasts.

In the case of the relatively coarse directional conditions, the flow prediction is relatively simple, such as only the crowd divided into dozens of classes, then only need to carry out simple statistics can be used to predict the flow. However, in the actual network, an ad delivery of a more directional conditions (that is, the DNF in the previous section ), and the conditions have or relations, may also have a relationship.

There are many ways to predict traffic, and there are some fancy, but here is a simple, but instructive, way to do this. This approach is to treat the query as A, and the document set is a reverse-retrieval process (U,C). In contrast to the ad retrieval process, the query is (U,C) and the document set is a. This method retrieves the U or C, and the retrieved quantity is the size of the traffic. The reason for this is that there are a lot of possible combinations of ad targeting conditions that cannot be done with simple statistics.

this is not necessary because the combined space (U,C) is too large to deal directly with the joint space. So you need to deal with both U and C separately. That is, to index the audience and the page, with ads to index, you can meet the target audience and the number of pages.

Take the context page (c) As an example:

C #impressionc pc (ECPM)

Contextual page ecpm distribution of this page traffic

The content of the index is all the pages, that is, the above C, the number of rows in the table two is the flow of the page and the page ECPM distribution, which can be obtained from the past history. The prediction process is:1. For a specified , a, through the index of C to find all the set of eligible C,2. For each c estimate of its ECPM, it is important to note that this is in the bidding system, Not necessarily all traffic is your own advertising system can be obtained, so also need to be based on ECPM to win a in C percentage p (a,c), and finally the flow of a cumulative p (a,c) * #impression.

Auction AD system-Traffic forecast