Chapter 4 Project Risk Management

ArticleDirectory

• 11.1 planning Risk Management
• 11.2 identify risks
• 11.3 conduct qualitative risk analysis
• 11.4 carry out quantitative risk analysis
• 11.5 plan risk response
• 11.6 Monitoring risks

Chapter 4 Project Risk Management

 
Resolution:The project manager should know that most risks (or even 90% of risks) in the project can be predicted and managed. Through rational risk management, project risks will be greatly reduced, and the possibility of project success will be greatly improved.
 

 
Resolution:In the early stages of the project life cycle, there were a large number of project uncertainties, a large number of types of risks, and a high possibility of risk occurrence, but the consequences of risk occurrence were relatively light. In the late stages of the project lifecycle,
 

 
There are few types of risks, and there is a small possibility of risk occurrence (less uncertainty). However, in case of occurrence, the consequences will be severe.
 

11.1 planning Risk Management

 
Citation: Planning risk management is the process of defining how to implement project risk management activities.
 

 
Resolution:In people's daily terms, risks are generally limited to uncertain events or conditions that will lead to negative consequences, excluding uncertain events or conditions that will lead to positive consequences. As defined in the PMBOK guide, threats are
 

 
Risks and opportunities are also risks-a "good" risk. PMI stipulates that opportunities and threats are always linked together, just like both sides of a coin.
 

Citation: Participants can include project managers, project team members and stakeholders, personnel responsible for managing risk planning and response activities in the Organization, and other related personnel.
 

 
Citation: The risk management plan includes the following content: methodology. Budget. Schedule. Risk category. Definitions of risk probability and impact. Probability impact matrix. The stakeholders of the revision are responsible. Report format. Tracking.
 

11.2 identify risks

 
Citation: Identifying risks is the process of determining which risks will affect the project and record its features.
 

 
Resolution:All stakeholders must be involved in risk identification. Under normal circumstances, the project team should first identify risks and then be conducted by other stakeholders. Generally, only a few stakeholders cannot fully identify items.
 

 
Project risk. If you omit one or more important risks, the project may fail smoothly or even completely.
 

 
Citation: You can comprehensively consider the analysis results and the risk endurance of stakeholders to quantify the required cost and time emergency reserve.
 

 
Resolution:Generally, only a few stakeholders cannot fully identify a project risk. Missing one or some important risks may lead to a project failure or even complete failure.
 

 
Resolution:You must have the following words: risk type. Such as technical risks, project management risks, organizational risks, internal risks, external risks, etc., can help people identify risks (risk categories can be used as the starting point of risk identification)
 

 
. Business risks and pure risks. The former is a risk closely related to business activities. The probability and consequence of occurrence are closely related to the operator's level and effort. Generally, insurance cannot be bought.
 

Buy insurance. Of course, the boundaries between the two are not very clear. Risk trigger factors. It is also called a risk symptom or warning signal. Depending on the situation, the risk trigger factors can indicate that the risk is about to happen, the risk is happening or the risk
 

 
Risk has occurred. Assuming conditional analysis. It is assumed that, despite the high possibility of implementation, the conditions still have certain risks. In case of failure to implement the conditions, the consequences are very serious. Therefore, we need to analyze and determine the existence of the assumptions.
 

 
Efficiency. Known-known risks. Risks that have been identified and analyzed, people know what risks they are, and the likelihood and consequences of occurrence. Generally, the calculated amount of risks is included in the cost of a specific project.
 

 
Known-unknown risk. Risks that have been identified but their occurrence probability or consequences are unclear can usually be handled by emergency reserves (including emergency time and funds. Unknown-unknown risk. Never met before
 

 
Completely unknown risks. For example, SARS is a risk before the occurrence of the first non-invasive pneumonia. In case of occurrence, management reserves should be used to cope with the situation. Management of unknown-unknown risks, usually not a project
 

 
Responsibilities. If "unknown-unknown risk" is mentioned in the question, it should generally be understood as "unknown-unknown risk" that needs to be paid by the management reserve ".
 

 
Citation: risk Illustration technology can include: cause. It is also called a Ishikawa chart or a fish bone chart to identify the cause of the risk. System or process flow chart. Displays the associations between various elements of the system and the causal transmission mechanism. Impact chart. Diagram
 

 
The form method indicates the causal relationship between the variable and the result, the event time sequence, and other relationships.
 

Citation: the initial risk register contains the following information: a list of identified risks. List of potential countermeasures.
 

11.3 conduct qualitative risk analysis

 
Citation: The implementation of qualitative risk analysis is to assess and comprehensively analyze the probability and impact of risks, and prioritize risks to provide a basic process for subsequent analysis or action.
 

 
Resolution:Qualitative risk analysis. This is a subjective analysis of the risk probability and consequence. Even if some numbers are used, subjective analysis is required. Therefore, in a strict sense, it cannot be determined whether or not numbers are used.
 

 
Quantitative or qualitative analysis.
 

 
Resolution:Qualitative analysis is required for all identified risks, but not for all identified risks.
 

 
Resolution:According to PMI, objective quantitative analysis is more accurate than qualitative analysis. Of course, it takes more time to collect more data.
 

 
Resolution:PMP may be used to calculate the expected monetary value and decision tree. Therefore, you must understand the 11-15 content in the PMBOK Guide (version 4th.
 

 
Citation: The risk probability assessment aims to investigate the likelihood of each specific risk occurrence. The risk impact assessment aims to investigate the potential impact of risks on project objectives (such as progress, cost, quality, or performance), including the negative impact caused by threats.
 

 
This also includes the positive effects of opportunities.
 

 
Citation: risk data quality analysis is a technique used to evaluate the usefulness of risk data for risk management.
 

Resolution:Risk data quality assessment. Qualitative risk analysis is not very reliable. If the basic data on which it is based is not reliable, the qualitative analysis results will be meaningless. Therefore, we need to confirm the quality of basic materials.
 

 
Resolution:Assuming conditional analysis. This is also in the scope of "risk data quality assessment", because the assumption that it is "true" is one of the important bases for risk analysis. All the prerequisites for project planning are assumed.
 

 
Certain risks are hidden to different degrees. In qualitative analysis, we need to test the stability and authenticity of some important prerequisites. If one or more of the prerequisites cannot be met
 

 
Project impact.
 

 
Citation: the risk register can be updated as follows: the relative ranking or priority list of project risks. Risks by category. The cause of risk or project areas that require special attention. The cause of risk or project areas that require special attention. Enter
 

 
Step-by-step analysis and response risk list. Low-priority risk observation list. Trend of qualitative risk analysis results.
 

11.4 carry out quantitative risk analysis

 
Citation: The implementation of quantitative risk analysis is a process of quantitative analysis on the impact of identified risks on the overall objectives of the project.
 

 
Resolution:Quantitative risk analysis. This is a quantitative analysis of the risk probability and consequence. Compared with qualitative analysis, it is an objective analysis method. It is usually aimed at more serious (based on qualitative analysis results) and quantifiable risks.
 

 
. After qualitative analysis, you can directly plan the risk response process without going through the quantitative analysis process.
 

Resolution:When quantitatively analyzing the risk of a construction period, you also need to consider the path convergence problem in the network diagram. Path convergence refers to the convergence of several paths to the same tight activity.
 

 
Resolution:Common techniques for quantitative analysis include data collection and presentation. Such as interviews, probability distribution, and expert judgment. Sensitivity analysis. Used to determine the potential impact of risks on the project. Expected currency value analysis. Considering various possibilities
 

 
Calculate the weighted average value based on the occurrence. Decision tree analysis. A common method for calculating the expected monetary value, so that you can choose between two or more options. Decision tree analysis is intended for future events.
 

 
Make a decision. The sum of probabilities of the same-level branches of a decision tree must be 1.
 

 
Citation: some common distributions require collecting information about the most optimistic (low), pessimistic (high), and possible situations.
 

 
Citation: beta distribution and triangular distribution are often used for quantitative risk analysis.
 

 
Citation: common technologies include event-oriented and project-oriented analysis methods: sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis helps determine which risks have the greatest potential impact on the project. Fix all other uncertainties to the benchmark value,
 

 
Then, we will examine the impact of changes in each factor on the target. Expected currency value analysis. Multiply the values of each possible result and the probability of occurrence, and then add all the products to calculate the project.
 

 
EMV.
 

11.5 plan risk response

 
Citation: Planning risk response is a process of developing programs and measures to improve opportunities and reduce threats for the project objectives.
 

 
Citation: withdrawal. Risk Avoidance refers to changing the project management plan to completely eliminate threats.
 

Citation: transfer. Risk Transfer refers to transferring part or all of the negative effects of a risk together with the corresponding responsibilities to a third party.
 

 
Citation: mitigated. Risk mitigation refers to reducing the probability and/or impact of adverse risk events to an acceptable critical value.
 

 
Citation: accepted. Because it is almost impossible to eliminate all of the project's threats, a risk acceptance strategy is required.
 

 
Citation: the risk register should include identified risks and their descriptions, affected project areas (such as WBS factors), risk causes (such as RBS factors ), and potential impact on project objectives; risk owner and
 

 
Its responsibilities; outputs of the qualitative analysis process, including the project risk priority list; agreed response policies; specific actions required to implement the above response policies; trigger, sign, and warning signals of risk occurrence; implement the above
 

 
Budget and schedule activities required for coping strategies, contingency plans and triggers for initiating contingency plans, and bounce back plans to be used when risks occur and the primary response measures are ineffective; it still exists after a predetermined response
 

 
Residual risks, as well as risks that have been intentionally accepted; secondary risks directly caused by implementation of risk response measures; emergency reserves calculated based on the quantitative risk analysis of the project and the risk critical value of the Organization.
 

 
Resolution:Differences between bounce plans, contingency plans and contingency measures. A bounce plan is a standby response plan for a risk that can be used when the primary response plan (usually contingency plan) is ineffective. Contingency Plan
 

 
The plan is a pre-developed risk response plan, and the contingency measures are emergency measures for the occurrence of bad risks, which were not previously planned. Both the bounce plan and emergency plan can target threats or opportunities, while the contingency plan
 

 
Application can only target threats.
 

11.6 Monitoring risks

Citation: the reserve analysis is to compare the remaining emergency reserve and residual risk at any time point of the project, so as to determine whether the remaining reserve is still reasonable.
 

 
Citation: recommended corrective actions include contingency plans and contingency measures. The latter is an unanticipated response to past risks that have not been identified or passively accepted.
 

 
Resolution:Activities that may be performed by risk monitoring include (not limited to): Pay attention to the risk triggering factors. Track identified risks. Implement risk response measures. Monitor residual risks, pay attention to secondary risks, and identify new risks. Risk Assessment
 

 
Effectiveness of the Plan (Measures. Communicate with stakeholders about project risks. If necessary, a change request (including corrective and preventive measures) should be submitted to develop new countermeasures. Collect risk information to improve user experience
 

 
Risk Register, project management plan and assets in the organizational process.
 

From http://pmpmap.com/