Deming series (1) -- driving only the rearview mirror

 

Problem:

When a business manager is asked to make plans for future business, he will propose a number that he thinks is good, and the board of directors often hopes to gain more benefits and negotiate with him multiple times. The business manager is not a newbie in this regard. He has many available reports. Why cannot we make the business planning process more scientific-for example, based on facts/numbers rather than people's feelings.

Let's take a look at the monthly report:

1) Compare the current value with the planned value or average value

2) Compare the values of the current and last year in the same month

3) Compare the current and current values of this year.

Do you think business managers can effectively manage and plan business goals through these monthly reports?

Driving only the rearview mirror: Imagine your windshield is filled with paper-last week, last month and last year's management report meant to look at the past.

There is a famous saying: "using past monthly reports to manage a company is like driving a car by looking at the yellow lines in the rearview mirror ".

One major drawback of monthly reports is its limitations. Let's simply show all the values in the following table. How can we see it?

It is useful, but not enough to provide a complete analysis and insight. The data on a runtime chart or a control chart can help us predict the future. However, it is incomplete and risky. Of course, we should at least observe what the system will do in the future to facilitate targeted planning.

Lessons learned

In other cases, we can also use the customer service hotline. We can use the runtime chart/Control Chart to help us predict the future. However, I rarely see a control chart used by a service company. Many decisions or plans are based on personal experiences ".

Bibliography: understanding variation the key to managing chaos understanding changes-key management confusion

Donald J. Wheeler

Deming series (1) -- driving only the rearview mirror