Virtual reality reality?

One astronomer said, now that our telescope has seen hundreds of millions of light-years, the Milky Way can be seen very clearly. Now we can say that there is no God. "Did your telescope see the air?" said a devout lady. "Not seen." "Then, without seeing, does the air exist?" Another example is that you cannot prove that a person will eventually die, although in the past 50,000 years, the 100 billion people who have appeared on Earth have died, but no one can prove that the nth person died, and the first n+1 will die.

The need for this thing proves it to be easy, as long as there are many people who can buy it. Prove it to be none, very difficult. No one buys today, no one buys tomorrow, the technical conditions have changed, and sometimes a small adjustment can detonate the market. Before the iphone, Motorola did a touch-screen phone without a keyboard, and Nokia also made a similar product, tepid. Apple makes the touch feel better, so the touch screen instantly explodes the market.

From a cautious point of view, for what is not generally do not talk nonsense, said also proved not, also not many people believe, also fell a pessimist's reputation carrying, bad! However, it is necessary to try a new thing without a play, to spend silver and to make a judgment.

Recently, VR (virtual reality), AR (augmented reality) is very hot, Google, Microsoft, Samsung are engaged in, and as a focus on the promotion of things, there are many large and small companies are also engaged in the development of various equipment and applications. I'm going to give it a pulse.

The so-called "do" means that there are more users to buy, and a considerable number of users will re-purchase. Although Apple Watches sell millions of, more than most traditional watch companies sell more, with Apple's influence, this number is still too small. In addition, many people who bought the Apple Watch felt useless, and then threw it aside. Four years ago, Google, in addition to a pair of glasses, also fire for a while, users buy, play a few days will not play, such products are no vitality, I also define it as a No. Some things the market has been small, but sustainable, I also define it as a product, such as most luxury, high-end audio and so on.

We can only introduce circumstantial evidence to analyze whether virtual reality has a play. In the past few years, things that have proved to be hopeless include:

Higher resolution of the phone. For some time, the phone has been configured with a higher resolution screen in order to show off. But this resolution has to hold a magnifying glass to see its Sydney level, and for some time died down.

More realistic Conference TV. Conference TV is an old thing, the market has not been big. About 10 years ago, Cisco engaged in a high-simulation of the conference TV system, sound and image better, in the specially renovated conference room put a lot of terminals, remote people on a separate screen appear, as if people do in the conference room. The results are still out of the way, people should do the plane to the meeting or fly.

3D TV. For a while, the real market is the bigger TV instead of the 3D.

3D movies. This thing is hot in the Avatar and inception space. Later, many films in order to cheat more money, are made into the big, although there are some, but the audience is very disgusted.

Video UGC. Despite the popularity of mobile phones, anytime, anywhere can be filmed video, but by user-generated content of the video is a break, only professional video has the market.

Camera. Without young children, it is difficult to get into the home market, and all the cameras are mostly for toddlers.

There are things that are:

Faster CPU for mobile phones. August 2011, Mobile phone release for the first time to play the rabbit-run, only 10,000 points, now has a hundred thousand of points, its performance has long exceeded the needs of people, but the CPU race has not stopped signs. Many years ago, the CPU performance of the computer exceeded the user's need, and the more expensive CPU was still sold.

The metal shell of the cell phone. From the practical point of view, the metal shell heavy, cool, prone to plastic deformation, shielding electromagnetic signals, not easily designed to facilitate the removal of the rear cover. These are shortcomings, the metal shell is obviously inferior to the plastic shell, but it is really popular. According to statistics, in 2015, the metal shell accounted for 10%, it is speculated that in 2016, the metal shell can reach 38%.

Multi-wing aircraft. Commonly known as unmanned aerial vehicles, this thing used for aerial shooting, in fact, nothing aerial racket dry what? But it was really hot and lasted a lot of time.

What are the rules of these messy facts? Each product has its own reasons for success or failure. I think the failure product has one thing in common-trying to deceive the eyes.

Why are people willing to pay for the excess CPU capacity and unwilling to pay for the extra screen resolution? Probably because the former is fuzzy evaluation, it is easy to believe that newer, faster CPUs are better. It is hard to be deceived by the fact that people are "seeing the truth" in the resolution beyond the eye's ability.

The high-definition conference TV is not as good as on-the-spot, general communication conference is enough. In the cracks in the conference TV market has been very small, and the main is that users even deployed a conference TV, and rarely used. Virtual reality is not a new concept, nearly 30 years ago, the computer has just started, virtual reality is a bright spot for the future imagination. Ball-raising movies have view features that are not really hot.

The scenario of virtual reality hypothesis is mainly game, and some people develop the application based on sex. Most people think that the biggest obstacle to virtual reality is that there is no good application, once the good application is developed, the trend is hot. I think this killer application may never be developed, and virtual reality tries to deceive the eyes once more, it will never come true. Just as high-definition meetings cannot replace the scene, the latter's needs are determined by the social animal attributes of the human being, and virtual substitution is not an actual gathering requirement.

"Seeing is believing" means that hearsay is not possible and is likely to be exaggerated by others. With the image and video age, seeing is actually replaced by a picture of the truth. I found another implication of this old adage, that the eye only believes what it sees, that virtual is virtual, and that it does not become a reality.

Virtual reality reality?