How to predict the performance of a bank

Old shareholder asked a question about prediction. How do we calculate the indicators for the second half of the year during the overall livelihood assessment and prediction? What are the predicted values of deposit and loan in the second half of the year before calculating other indicators? Can you explain your prediction method for your learning? Thank you!

※It is difficult to predict the operating performance of a listed company. Basically, it is impossible to accurately predict the operating performance of a listed company. It can be satisfied if there is a chance that the business performance will be no more than ten. Of course, the more you know, the more detailed the analysis, the higher the accuracy rate. More importantly, it is not accurate or accurate computing. Therefore, this task requires experience, experience, and judgment. I think it is not very difficult to predict this problem. It is a well-developed factor and a constant error correction factor.
Compared with other industries, the short-term performance of the banking industry is difficult to predict, but the long-term performance prediction is more convenient, because the banking industry is relatively stable. In other industries, short-term performance is easy to predict, and long-term performance is difficult to predict. This is because the banking industry has many factors that affect its business performance in the short term and is difficult to judge. For example, how many bad accounts are allocated for backup? What is the management fee? How does the spread change during the period? It is difficult to judge the benefits of capital services. Therefore, there is a lot of room for smooth banking performance.
Therefore, we can only make a rough estimate and cannot make it accurate. It can be said that it is quite good if it is within the error range of 10%. Fortunately, we can use the changes in this trend to predict the business performance for the next quarter.
I generally use two methods to predict the performance of banking stocks: one is to predict the growth of total assets in the next quarter, and the other is to calculate the net interest income based on the total asset spreads (which is a big share ), then, we can estimate other indicators based on the trend of business performance, and then obtain a net profit estimate. Another way is to predict and determine the loan balance for the next quarter, and use deposit and loan spreads to calculate the net interest income. Other indicators are the same as the gross estimates.
Of course, if you want to make predictions carefully and accurately as much as possible, you need to calculate one item for each project. In general, professionals are doing this by carefully calculating models. I am not willing to calculate predictions seriously. More is judgment. Ultimately, it is a rough estimate.