Huang Tiantian: Who is the main speculative force in the property market?

Recently, the National Real Estate Market has been cool, and the "Golden nine" landscape is no longer, and the industry forecast "Silver ten" will not change much. The real estate market that once started from the storm seems to be calm again. Recently Stock Market Even worse, since May, "falling continuously" not only broke the "diamond bottom", but also fell below the 2000 mark not long ago.

It can be seen that speculative capital is indeed the driving force behind the rapid rise in house prices. Because the central government strictly controlled speculative capital, house prices did not enter the rising track as quickly as they used in the past, but rose slightly at a low speed above the rising or falling critical point.

In the real estate market, the main speculative force that decides a sharp rise or fall in house prices is complicated. One is the capital of all types of real estate speculators engaged in speculative trading at the front end of the market, and the other is the real estate trust and usury that provide financial support to buyers and sellers behind the market. Finance Intermediary capital. Without the financing support of financial intermediary capital, real estate companies that rely mainly on loans cannot hold down their prices, nor can they rely on the long-term leverage of mortgage loans to increase profits.

Compared with the property market with just-needed support, the stock market is not just in need. Shares in the secondary market are not as valuable as houses, but are typical speculative or investment demands. Therefore, stock market investors are most vulnerable to the impact of various expectations.

In addition, stocks can be eaten in large quantities in an instant, or can be immediately sold out, while housing transactions are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Therefore, the effect of information on the stock market is far greater than that on the property market. Because speculative capital in the stock market has a faster response to information, there is no time-delay effect on the property market, and there is no demand for support, real estate regulation and control is not relaxed, and may even be overweight, this absolute negative news immediately caused the stock market to fall continuously, but the property market was excited due to the need to relax the monetary policy, it was not until it was just the first time that the trend had declined.

Impact in Stock Market Dashboard The main speculative capital that has risen and fallen sharply is financial speculative capital represented by various highly active investment funds. These financial institutions borrow funds from financial institutions by raising funds or other means.

Why are I discussing the main Speculative forces in the property market and the stock market? This is because the funds are the same, and the final owners of these funds are often the same person, group, enterprise or financial institution, and even international hot money. These micro-economic entities that make profits in the currency issuance economy have a large amount of funds, but because of the low investment efficiency of the real economy, they must find other ways to make money. Financial Market It becomes its first choice.

If these speculative financial capital is dispersed into a single fund owner, the scale is not terrible, but the organization is very large. The above yuan is enough to shake the entire Chinese economy. As long as they make speculative profits, their organizations are various investment funds, collective trusts, and usury.

In the property market and stock markets, it is precisely because of the agitation of these large-scale financial speculative capital that other low-activity large capital and retail capital will follow suit to pursue growth or fall, this forms a periodic trend of stock index and house price. In a word, highly active speculative financial capital is the decisive force that often puzzles us.