In September, the inflow of hot money was mostly speculative capital.

[Financial and Economic Network report] Reporter Li YuOn September 19, September 20, Li youhuan, director of Guangdong Social Science Integrated Development Research Center, which monitors underground capital flows in China, said in a telephone interview that the inflow of hot money in China hit a new high level in September, both the flow rate and flow rate are higher than that in January. According to its monitoring data, most of the incoming hot money is speculative capital inflows, which is not closely related to changes in foreign exchange reserves.

Li youhuan believes that the rise in interest rates and the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, the double rise in volume and price shows the failure of real estate regulation and control, leading to the inflow of speculative hot money. Substantive macro-control policies, including real estate, are likely to be introduced in the fourth quarter of this year, increasing the uncertainty of hot money flows.

Since September, the trend of RMB appreciation has been obvious. On the 20th day, the central price of the renminbi against the US dollar was 6.7117, an increase of 1.6%. The cumulative appreciation since the reform of the exchange rate has exceeded 20%.

According to data released by the People's Bank of China in September 19, China's new foreign currency account for August yuan in 243 billion, which will increase by 42.2% in the previous month, hitting a new high in the last four months. The sum of foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade surplus is about 185.4 billion yuan. According to the general formula of "hot money = increment of foreign exchange reserves-trade surplus-foreign direct investment", the inflow of hot money is About 57.6 billion RMB. This is the first net inflow of hot money after three consecutive months.

Li youhuan is currently the only Chinese scholar commissioned to investigate underground money village activities. His report on hot money and underground money houses is an important reference for China's official exchange rate policies.

 

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In fact, the author has estimated it in August when the stock market was Changyang. Equivalent to a month's stock market increase