Interview with Sun's chief technology officer: only five computers are needed in the world?

Author: CNET Technology Information Network
Cnetnews.com.cn 2006-12-11 09:31:19 AM

 

CNET technology news network December 11 International report former IBM Chairman Thomas J. Watson also made the wrong judgment that "the world only needs five computers.

But Greg Papadopoulos, sun's chief technology officer, believes that one idea will eventually become a reality. He wrote in his blog: the world only needs five computers.

However, he then listed seven computers, including Google, eBay, Amazon.com, Microsoft, Yahoo, salesforce.com, and the so-called "great computer of China", which we don't have to worry about. He means that there will be about five super-large global broadband computing service giants in the world.

Sun wants to provide technology to ultra-large scale customers around the world, so it is not surprising that its CTO uses data center colored glasses to see the world. In a recent CNET News.com interview, Greg elaborated on his ideas.

Q: First, let's talk about the theme you are talking about today. Do you think that five or six computers will be needed in the world one day in the future? Can this meet the needs of the world?

A: I think there will be large-scale mergers in the industry. Scale and efficiency are also important. Once the scale reaches the critical point, manufacturers will "attract" low-efficiency vendors into their own systems. This will be a large-scale distributed system.

Q: What is your definition of a computer? Most people think that computers are PCs or servers, but I think that computers are rarely considered as 8000 or more servers in the data center operated by eBay.

A: I am referring to a computer where Google is running. It integrates 100,000 processors and millions of hard disks, but it is a computer. The important difference is that the system has a console that determines which software to run and collaborate to provide some services.

Q: according to this definition, do you think the world only needs four, five, or six computers?

A: Just like five or six multinational energy companies, I think the world only needs five or six computers. There are hundreds of energy companies in the world, but only five or six companies are required to achieve efficient operation. If a company is 10 times the size of other companies, it can invest more money in R & D and technology to improve the efficiency of business operations. This will inevitably lead to a larger system. Therefore, 5, 6, or 12 systems in the world are not a problem, and industry mergers will lead to a larger system.

Q: What do other people do? Sun CEO Jonathan explained in the case of dental clinics in remote areas that they would become one of these giant systems. Because, if you become one of the survivors, will you host software for a large number of customers?

A: Very accurate. This is the so-called "software servitization ". Customers do not need to buy software, but only the results of software operation. This trend will start from small and medium enterprises. In my opinion, eBay is an example of small enterprises being "attracted" by services, users who click on an ebay store are actually consuming services. They make eBay larger and larger, but don't have to buy servers and install them on your desk.

Q: The diversity of customers running on these ultra-large infrastructure means that they must meet the needs of these customers. Today, when I think of eBay, I think of auction and direct sales; when I think of Amazon, I think of e-commerce. Enterprises all over the world use computers to complete a variety of tasks, which means that Amazon can become a general computing infrastructure to meet different needs? That would be another form of eBay or Amazon.

A: I think Amazon is aware of this trend. Their Elastic Computing cloud is at least a test in this field. If you are a small enterprise or a start-up, you will use the services provided by service providers, such as email, customer relationship management, and online stores. In the future, some vendors will provide all these services.

Q: So you predict that giants like Amazon will become general infrastructure, and then many middlemen will customize these services to meet the needs of actual customers?

A: Yes. It will be like this at first. But I am not sure whether these middlemen will survive or be "attracted ". I suspect that middlemen will be "attracted" because it is very important to understand the customer and control the customer.

Q: When will this large-scale merger happen?

A: It is happening now. Another question may be asked: When will it become the mainstream of the computing industry? The annual spending on information and communication in the world is between $2.5 and $3 trillion, most of which are not used in the computing field, but for manpower, software, and services. In

A considerable portion of these ultra-large computers are invested in devices because they are much more efficient. In terms of investment in the computing field, I think there will be a turning point before the end of the first decade of this century.

Q: Many people think Sun is a leader and lacks implementation. In recent years, you have been faced with difficulties. How can you provide these infrastructures?

A: We firmly believe that investment in R & D will receive a return on innovation. This idea provides guidance for our investment. In terms of our ideas, we have a good record, and therefore gained a lucrative profit, monopolizing part of the computing market.

If you are in Sun, you will find that our R & D investment is in line with the actual situation.

Q: You mentioned that Google is launching its own operating system, running network zookeeper, and using many customized technologies.

A: Yes. I think the reason for this is that traditional IT vendors still have a big gap in efficiency.