Is the advertising crisis coming?

Does the Chinese advertising market have a crisis when the economic crisis hits?

This issue is crucial to the development of the entire media industry and is causing heated debate in the academic, industrial and media sectors. There is a "pessimistic faction" that the Chinese advertising market is difficult to be immune, just because it is in the downstream of the industrial chain, the crisis has just spread to the traditional entity industry, has not yet spread to the advertising industry, so there is no crisis yet, and "optimistic" that the Chinese advertising market has just started, capacity is very large, and can expand the growth of space greater, Even if the traditional entity industry benefits decline, advertising reduced, but at most, the growth of advertising revenue slowed, will not change the trend of the advertising market forward.

The reasons for pessimism are sufficient. They believe that the advertising market is closely related to GDP. The US ad market's two-quarter spending plan fell 3.7% from a year earlier, signaling that advertising will be the next victim of contagion. And China's advertising market can not be a solo show. A few days ago, China's largest outdoor advertising media Group--------the media had to be the start of the outdoor media advertising business to sell, is that it has a light on the future of advertising.

The optimists cite the results of CCTV's recent 2009-year AD-tender meeting, 9.2 billion yuan, higher than 2008 18% of the tender is considered to be "the barometer of economic forecasting", is the industry's leading indicators, not only to prove the status of television advertising boss is not to be shaken, but also to prove the economic crisis in the confidence index of entrepreneurs.

Comprehensive comparison of the views of both sides, you can find such an interesting phenomenon, that is, the value of the delivery of different advertising carriers has changed quietly, it is this change about the differences between the two sides.

CIC Securities researcher Cold Stars believe that the downward cycle of the economy, the cyclical characteristics of the advertising industry will have an impact on the main advertisers such as real estate and automotive industries, will be due to the economic downturn cut advertising spending. But in the form of different advertising carriers, advertising is the phenomenon of the elimination of the long will be very obvious.

Galaxy Securities researcher Xu Yaowen believes that 2009 years the overall growth rate of advertising will fall to 12%, the internal will continue to differentiate, and presents two characteristics: On the one hand, the new media and television advertising will remain fast growth, newspaper advertising growth will stagnate; On the other hand, enterprise marketing funds will be further to the dominant media and leading enterprises, Objectively will promote the industry's fittest.

If the ads are divided into traditional advertising and new advertising, the majority of the traditional advertising media next year to judge the trend of the same, that is--TV ads will still be a single large, newspaper advertising slowed down slightly, the basic maintenance of radio advertising status quo. Cold stars that the industry will continue to grow by more than 12% in 2009, but the newspaper ads by macro-economic impact, is expected to increase by 8% in 2009. Because the newspaper advertisement has the strong geographical attribute, the newspaper advertisement income difference is big, some local newspaper advertisement will have the obvious decline. Tripao, director of the Center for Media Management at Tsinghua University, said that according to his understanding of the advertising plan, next year some big newspaper advertising revenue did not appear a noticeable decline.

The big difference in advertising prospects is the new media. Some research reports point out that because Internet advertising costs far less than television and newspapers, and interactive effects such as better than the traditional media, so the Internet advertising model will not be impacted, accordingly, portals, video and search ads and other models of the future.

However, a series of "niche Media", modelled on the media, has raised concerns about whether their income models can withstand the economic crisis. "Class of media" such as the United States media, China as the media, to touch the media, these enterprises rely on a specific place to set up LCD screen display advertising revenue-generating enterprises, such as the United States media occupy the airport, China as the media occupy the bus, touch the media occupy the taxi. However, after the audience sold the outdoor advertising business, these groups of companies advertising revenue prospects aroused concern.

The Internet Research Institute, the chief statisticians of the consulting, Zhou Hongmei that in the economic downturn, advertisers will reduce advertising, but some large, has become the mainstream of the advertising media will be less impact, and the emerging advertising media advertising effect has not been tested, but the mainstream media as a supplement, so the impact will be greater.

Regardless of whether the new media will be subject to the test of advertising crisis, there is little doubt that the various media advertising convergence will become the future direction of development. However, in a variety of media fusion symbiosis environment, the enterprise how to stand out from the competition, it will be the next Test enterprise problems.