Knowledge sharing of it life: rational thinking of game theory

Background:

Yesterday saw "the strongest brain", because the program is more controversial, I do not know why, as a perceptual person, want to try if their own rational analysis will be what?

The process is this:

The Chinese team (3) vs England (4 people).

1: Li Jiandong (captain) to play, "and said the Chinese team will no longer participate in the strongest brain" after 3 innings, the two sides did not have the brain to carry out the next round, so the judges have 1 points, the result: 1V1.

2: Sue xx (forget name) fight, defeat opponent, result: 2v1.

3: Shin Yifan, failure, results 2v2 Ping (at the same time Shen fan mood out of control to leave the show, after the program group after a return to the program)

The question came: The final battle, who out of the station, in the big screen after the project, Captain Li Jiandong think let Shin Yifan play, and thus drew a series of stories.

1:dd Wei at the beginning is who, let the captain decide the candidate, but when the captain let just defeated a sail again to fight, DD Wei not dry, said the greater the authority, the greater the responsibility, this time should captain on, and the captain on the first, the rest of the longest.

2: Another male tutor said: "This time, should carry forward the spirit of revolution, there are difficulties to be on, no difficulty in manufacturing difficulties, but also insisted on the captain."

3: Another female tutor said: "Captain is not on, the middle of the number 2nd on the Can on (2nd Su xx said he is not fit on)

In this pressure, as the captain of the Li Jiandong or feel the Jenschen sail, Shen a sail just defeated, also in hesitation, this time the host said, no one on the waiver, the last sail or on, and won the victory.

The title of the final program is this: "The Chinese Captain" the "timid war" controversy

The analysis of thinking by game theory should be this:

The next thing I want to say is: The comment on this question, basically is 55 open, some people Li Jiandong, someone for his vindication.

Next, I want to start with a rational analysis of this:

As a team when, in the last round, there are two options:

1: Fight for yourself

If win: Chinese team wins (+1 points), personal honors (participation in international Races + 1 points), public opinion (+1 points), teammates lose morale (1 points), Mentor Trust (+1 points), and finally, can get 3 points.

If lost: Chinese team negative (-1 points), personal honor (0 points), public opinion (0 points), teammates lose morale (1 points), Mentor Comfort (0 points), and finally, can get-2 points.

2: Let a sail

If win: Chinese team wins (+1 points), personal honors (0 points), public opinion (0 points), teammates regain morale (+1 points), mentor Trust (0 points) Finally, you can get 2 points.

If lost: Chinese team negative (-1 points), personal honor (0 points), public opinion (1 points), teammates lose morale (1 points), mentor Trust (1 points), and finally, can get-4 points.

Therefore, from the above analysis, choose their own fight, you can maximize their interests, and choose to let a sail, the benefits of maximizing should be a sail or team.

So, the conclusion is not enough, we should know.

The analysis program group should look like this:

From the program, the outcome did not fill a Li Jiandong of hindsight, which is also worth pondering:

1: Make up a post-event recall:

Li Jiandong (in the case of win, public opinion + 1), mentors (public opinion-1, because of distrust at first), audience without controversy (0 points) Last: 0 points

2: No recollection:

Li Jiandong (Public opinion: image 0 points, personal fame + 1), mentors (0 points of public opinion, focus on Li Jiandong), the audience is controversial (speculation + 1 points) Finally, 2 points

Therefore, the program group to choose No memory is also very obvious.

Summarize:

People's life, always have to make a lot of judgments and choices, rational or emotional, but from the utility maximization, rational or practical, but to form a rational analytical thinking, but also to read more books, more practice.

Knowledge sharing of it life: rational thinking of game theory