Marketwatch: Yahoo!

Lead: marketwatch said that as Microsoft's deadline has passed over the weekend, Yahoo had to face the possibility of a huge amount of software to launch a shareholder-authorized voting war, and many analysts have determined that, yahoo is destined to be defeated in such a war. However, a few analysts who seem to have received more news from Yahoo said that the company apparently had its own calculations and believed that victory was not out of reach, especially now, Microsoft refuses to raise the offer.

Needless to say, in the face of the deadline for Microsoft to buy and merge for itself, Yahoo has put forward a disdainful attitude, but after that, portal websites have to face the possibility of huge amounts of software to launch a shareholder-authorized voting war, and many analysts have agreed that Yahoo is doomed to defeat in such a war.

However, a few analysts who seem to have received more news from Yahoo said that the company apparently had its own calculations and believed that victory was not out of reach, especially now, Microsoft refuses to raise the offer.

Roger Kay, an analyst at Endpoint Technologies Associates, said, "They have checked the cards in their hands and feel that they are also quite competitive ."

At present, Microsoft (MSFT) has not officially launched an authorization vote campaign to take over Yahoo's board of directors. However, since Microsoft's deadline has passed over the weekend, the problem has become simplified: in the software industry, the huge deal, initially worth $44.6 billion and $31 per share, was submitted directly to Yahoo's shareholders.

Microsoft has made a strong suggestion that they may not give up this unwilling marriage. Although many analysts still believe that the two sides will eventually sit down, A compromise was reached at a higher purchase price.

However, Kay stressed that Yahoo's Investor Relations Team had disclosed to him that if the dispute eventually evolved into a vote of shareholders, the company's management believes that, they will have enough support to defeat Microsoft's challenges.

At present, Yahoo's two founders Yang Zhiyuan, who are also the company's chief executive officer, and David Filo jointly controlled about 10% of the company's out-of-stock offerings.

In addition, supporters of Management computing include capital Research and Management Co. two of its investment departments, both of which jointly owned 16.5% of Yahoo's foreign shares, and Legg Mason, another Italian supporter, also held a 7% stake.

In other words, the two founders and the shareholders of the three major institutions control about 33% of Yahoo's issued shares, so that they only need to find support for nearly 20% of the shares, it can beat Microsoft's attempt to purchase and merge.

Kai Yi said, "If they can ensure that 1/3 of Yahoo's shareholders are voting on their own side, their ideas cannot be said to be unreasonable ."

The confidence of Yahoo management is built on an extremely critical assumption that most of the company's shareholders want Microsoft to continue the transaction and believe that Microsoft will soften its position and increase its quote.

This idea was further supported and strengthened in February, when Legg Mason's legendary fund manager, Bill Miller, publicly said that Microsoft had to increase its purchase price to complete the transaction.

According to reports, in the first quarter of this year, capital world investors, one of the two divisions of capital research, nearly doubled their Yahoo shares-exactly when Microsoft announced their acquisition attempts. Although we are still unable to determine the exact time at which their stock purchase behaviors occurred, their behaviors have given strong hints, that is, this institutional investor also bet on the increase in the purchase price.

Kai Yi pointed out that if more people accept such expectations, Yahoo does have reason to believe that it can win the support of an additional 20% shareholders to defeat Microsoft. He added that Yahoo believes that "the gap between the two sides is small enough ."

To succeed, both Microsoft and Yahoo must seek support from more than half of its shareholders.

Riskmetrics is a dedicated principal voting consultant, Patrick McGurn, who emphasizes that "if you control 51% of your shares, you have successfully bought a policy for yourself."

He added that, according to the relevant laws and regulations of Delaware, although investors can refuse to support certain specific candidates, on the whole, they can only vote for one of them. "You must select a specific camp. It is impossible for shareholders to vote for their votes in two ways at the same time ."

However, some other analysts said that many Yahoo shareholders are likely to be worried that Microsoft is completely disheartened and giving up trading, which will almost inevitably lead to Yahoo's stock slump.

Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, said in an interview last week that "the risk they are worried about is that Microsoft may say that there are already more than 44 billion US dollars, since shareholders still refuse to accept it, simply let Yahoo operate it independently-this is the choice of shareholders, and then they will turn and walk away."

Citi's Brent thill should also say, "If Microsoft turns around and walks away, where should the stock price come from ?"

However, kaiyi said that Yahoo believes that Microsoft is eager to reach a deal, so it will further increase the price. For this higher price, the risk of voting by shareholders is still worth it.

"They don't want to sell companies, and they feel that their shareholders should get more than Microsoft provides so little ."