[Tongshengge] the Mainland's "Small macro adjustment" wave is receiving waves. The State Council is concerned about overcapacity in some industries. scholars have criticized a large number of new loans for stock trading. In the final analysis, this is because of unprecedented credit expansion and too much money. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), which is responsible for banking management in the Mainland, has finally made a "zombie" attempt to increase the capital adequacy ratio of banks. It has issued a number of draft requirements on the new regulations. I believe it is imperative.
Whether directly increasing the capital adequacy ratio or deducting the secondary debt from the capital, it is simply implementing "dynamic fine-tuning". It is aimed at asset prices and market liquidity, so as to seek an arrow in the double-pronged manner. The principle is simple,
In the future, it is not easy for banks to issue bonds to supplement their capital. Only by raising funds by issuing shares or reducing the interest rate reserve, these two moves are not conducive to the stock price, which can reduce the stock market
. On the other hand, if you do not increase your own capital, You have to contract the loan scale, reduce the amount of new loans issued, and the loans that expire will not be extended, so you can recover the market liquidity.According to a mainland analyst's estimation, the one-percentage-point capital adequacy ratio corresponds to a loan of 23,000 billion yuan. No wonder the market's fear of "Water Shortage" is lingering.
After the credit crisis broke out, there was an international consensus that banks should no longer be supervised with a single capital adequacy ratio in the future. Instead, banks should adopt dynamic and anti-cyclical approaches, in the case of a poor economy, You can moderate the amount of money to encourage lending; when the economy is overheated, it will moderately tighten to reduce risks. The mainland China Banking Regulatory Commission seems to have such a new orientation,
When to place loans and when to tighten the loan, it is still full of randomness, and there is no complete set of rules. However, the focus of the process is to control the total amount of loans, maybe when the loan shrinks too much, the new regulations will be completely abolished, and the true meaning of risk control will be lost.
According to the performance announced by many banks, the capital adequacy ratio dropped sharply from the end of last year, ranging from one to two percentage points. The situation is worrying. Does the bank ignore the risk? Answer: yes or no. At the end of last year, when the central Government launched a 4 trillion yuan stimulus to the economy, Zhu Min, Vice President of the Bank of China, publicly stated that it is necessary not to blindly provide loans to investment projects. However, when all banks lend, they will not be able to receive similar warnings.
The current lending scale of banks is not a result of marketization. The consequences of tightening the capital adequacy ratio may be beyond the imagination of the market.
