[Practice 6] Three-step Time Estimation

One of the important indicators of project performance is time. Here we will summarize the three steps we have experienced. Phase 1: simple Project Manager estimation + reverse push + Department reserve mobile staffAdvantage: The estimation speed is very fast (in many cases, the project plan is to roll out a milestone from the release time given by the superior) Disadvantage: the plan is very inaccurate, and the project success rate is not high. The main reason is: 1) the project manager's personal thinking limit cannot be fully considered. In particular, when a new project manager encounters a new project manager, the chance of project success is even worse. 2) employees in the Department always need to work. When risks occur in the project, the originally intended mobile staff are always insufficient, or they cannot stop or put their work into the project, if mobile support is required for multiple projects at the same time, the entire department must work overtime and work together. 3) The participation of the project team members is not enough. If you work overtime, you may complain that, in general, the Project Manager can take the lead and work overtime at this time. At this time, the colleagues in the Department are hard-pressed and hard-working, however, the project results are always unsatisfactory and cannot be delivered on schedule.
Stage 2: Company-level estimation team for expert estimationIn order to improve estimation and ensure the fairness of the performance of each department, the company will seek experts from other departments for the project of Department A to estimate and use the three-point computing and publishing time, if an expert estimates an inaccurate estimate, it is required to re-estimate or discuss it in person. Eventually, a consensus will become the performance point of the Project release. advantages: relatively fair, convincing disadvantages: 1) It is easy to get involved. Project estimation takes a long time, and it is difficult to convert external estimation time plans into internal plans, resulting in a great waste of work. 2) It is difficult to guarantee the quality and active participation of experts, especially after multiple estimates. 3) the company does not pay attention to personnel allocation and does not consider the longest path of a specific project, calculation time formula: workload/manpower = project time 4) The participation of the project team members is insufficient. If you work overtime, there are certain complaints. In general, the company-level estimation was introduced to the company by cmme, it has played a major role, but to a certain extent it has created the opposition between RDM organizations and departments at the company level. A strong project manager can perform many offline activities to get his/her expected performance time.
Stage 3: bottom-up estimation of departments + expert guidanceIn fact, the second and third phases overlap to a certain extent. In the second stage, there are some project managers of Xianzhi, before the company starts estimation, first, I made an internal bottom-up estimation so that I knew my limits. If there is a key path that cannot be eliminated, I would need to increase the total workload to achieve my expectations. in the third stage, project estimation is dominated by departments and projects. When a Key Path appears, the department or company experts help to eliminate the issue. If it cannot be eliminated, project estimation should prevail as a performance point. Advantages: 1) be convinced 2) Encourage the project manager to take the version into consideration at the beginning, if the project plan is highly feasible 3) make the estimation with the participation of all project personnel more accurate, in addition, members are willing to take responsibility for their estimated time. 4) establish a mutual relationship between RDM and department relations. 5) generate feasible project plans directly after estimation. Disadvantages: 1) a slightly longer estimation cycle, generally, one to two weeks after the demand baseline can be used as a whole: This method is my personal favorite, which can effectively improve employee engagement and accuracy of estimation, while maintaining the Mutual Assistance of the Organization, it is very helpful for version success.