Probability of selecting 1138 numbers with 14 serial numbers from 514

Netease news: http://news.163.com/09/0801/01/5FJH66T2000120GR.html

In August July 29, the second phase of the affordable housing system in laohekou city, Hubei province opened a lottery code. The public found that the 514 households had 14 serial numbers, and one of them was just 17 years old and suspected of fraud.

In the second phase of laohekou City, Hubei Province, the number of eligible houses was publicly shaken, and 1138 households were shaken out of 514 applicants. The public found that the 514 households experienced a "14-line connection" phenomenon.

Qq news also found: http://news.qq.com/a/20090731/000387.htm

 

 

This is a typical probability calculation question. What is the probability?

Check whether this is fraudulent. The probability I calculated is about 1.6%, so the conclusion is that there should be no fraud.