Project time (estimated project activity duration and planned preparation) Notes

The estimation of the project activity duration is to make a correct estimation of the duration required to complete the project activities based on the existing environment conditions. The time and resources required for each project activity need to be estimated separately. The core of this process is the basis for cost control and progress control.

Main tasks of estimating the project activity duration

Input	Tools and methods	Output
Activity list Resource requirements Historical data	Expert suggestion Analogy Estimation Delphi Method Simulation Method Simulation Method	Estimated project Activity Duration Reference document for estimation Updated activity list

Half of the Project Activity Duration Estimation steps

1. Enter original data and empirical data and establish estimation assumptions.

2. Use corresponding estimation tools and methods to estimate each specific activity

2.1 estimate the duration of each activity, average resource utilization, total working hours (or costs), and non-human resource demand costs.

Project Activity Duration Estimation type

1. approximate estimation

2. Preliminary magnitude estimation.

3. Estimate the budget.

4. detailed estimation.

Estimated Influencing Factors

1. Emergency Prediction

2. personnel proficiency and work efficiency

3. Personnel communication and other factors

In the actual estimation process, there are also some other factors, including the loss time consumed by non-project activities, the impact of part-time work, the loss of communication and conflict when people complete their work.

4. Detailed levels of activities

Input of Project Activity Duration Estimation

1. Resource requirements generally include personnel, raw materials, equipment, and funds.

2. Resource allocation. Note: resource efficiency or productivity, resource availability, and resource uniqueness.

Historical data

1. project documentation

2. Estimated commercial time Database

3. Focus on the wisdom of the project team.

Tools and methods for estimating Project Activity Duration

Time, cost, resource estimation

Key Content: Estimation steps and methods. Resource load diagram.

Methods: Expert estimation method, analogy estimation method, Delphi method, and three-point time estimation method.

Expected activity value = the most optimistic time + the most likely time * 4 + the most pessimistic time)/6

Standard variance = (pessimistic time-Optimistic Time)/6

 

Schedule Development)

Based on the work breakdown structure, the output results and required resources are estimated based on the definition, sorting, and duration of the activities in the previous project time management process, prepare a series of progress plans for all activities of the project, which are the service objectives and objects that the project follows up with and control, and the action guides for project follow-up and control, A good project progress plan should be conducive to the implementation of project tracking and control and the realization of project objectives.

Main work of preparing the project progress plan

Input	Tools and methods	Output
Project Network Diagram Project Resource requirements Activity Duration Estimation Activity logical relationship Constraint factors Activity advances and lags behind Calendar	Gantt Chart Key Path Method Plan Review Technology Chart Review Technology	Project progress plan Supplementary description of project progress plan Project Progress Management Plan

Constraint factors

1. Mandatory date

2. Key events or milestones

A time constraint type project must be completed within the specified time.

A Resource-constrained project assumes that the resource availability level cannot exceed the required usage of the project.

Tools and methods

1. Gantt Chart: The biggest advantage is that it is simple, clear, intuitive, and easy to compile. The main disadvantage is that it cannot reflect the logical relationship or dependency between project activities in the same way. It is applicable to relatively simple small projects.

2. Key Path Method

Plan Review Technology

The probability time estimation method is used to estimate the length of project time based on the optimistic, most likely, and Pessimistic Activity Duration.

Expected activity value = the most optimistic time + the most likely time * 4 + the most pessimistic time)/6

Standard variance = (pessimistic time-Optimistic Time)/6

Chart Review Technology