Property Market Credit New Deal strength supermarkets expect property prices to rise

Property Market Credit New Deal strength supermarkets expected property prices to rise in the wind China Securities News-CSI Zhang Min I want to share 2943

The credit limit is more than expected.

Transactions in first-tier cities rebounded slightly during the National Day

□Reporter Zhang Min

Analysts said that during the National Day holiday, the turnover in the first-tier cities such as Beijing rebounded slightly, better than market expectations. This is mainly caused by the new credit policy introduced before the festival. As the policy continues to ferment, the property market may gradually recover in the next few months. It is reported that after the introduction of the new credit policy, some real estate projects are brewing to raise prices, and developers' price increases are impulsive or rising again.

Some organizations believe that although the credit new policy is more powerful than expected, the market still needs to be "digested" for some time ". From the current market trend, the traditional "gold, silver, and ten" may still face poor quality. But since the end of October, the market is expected to show signs of real recovery.

Property Market transactions are better than expected

The National Day holiday has never been the peak season for property market transactions. However, due to the fact that it was in the "Golden nine silver ten" period, its market conditions are of great reference value. Based on data from various regions, the real estate market volume in most cities remained stable in the first six days of the National Day holiday this year (January 1, October 1-6), and there was no sharp increase in the volume due to the new mortgage policy introduced before the holiday.

Among them, the market has rebounded slightly in cities such as Beijing, where supply and demand are relatively tight. According to data from the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, the first six days of the National Day holiday this year, 472 sets of new residential buildings were signed in Beijing, 38 sets of second-hand houses were signed, and 510 sets were signed in total. Although it is significantly lower than the same period in 2013, it is still better than the same period in 2012.

Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan property, believes that the online signature data during the golden week does not reflect the current situation of the market, but it also shows that the overall market has continued to recover since September.

He also pointed out that the reason why it is called "the continuation of the recovery" is that, from the perspective of first-tier cities, the turnover during the National Day holiday has risen by one to two compared with the previous expectations, in addition, the net signature statistics are lagging, so the actual transaction volume during the National Day is better than expected.

Since the end of last year, the property market has fallen into the channel of "price-per-volume", and the monthly turnover of the real estate market has been declining. Since May this year, the average house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities have fallen for four consecutive months. However, in the second half of the year, the supply side began to make "price-for-volume" efforts, making the overall transaction volume rebounded slightly.

It is understood that during the National Day holiday, there were not many new projects opened in various regions, but most of the items on sale continued the previous price strategy, that is, to make certain discounts on the basis of pricing. Among them, new housing projects in some cities offer as much as 30% discounts.

In terms of second-hand houses, according to Beijing Zhongyuan Property Statistics, compared with the peak point at the beginning of the year, the current average price of second-hand houses sold in the Beijing market has dropped by more than 15%, and some houses have even exceeded 20%.

Analysts pointed out that, after years of high real estate investment growth, the current overall property market is in the "oversupply" status. Since the beginning of this year, market demand has been gradually released as more and more cities have relaxed their purchase restrictions. This is the background of the gradual recovery of market transactions.

It still takes time for the new deal to become effective

From the perspective of stimulating demand, the new credit policy in September 30 is more powerful. The Central Bank and China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on further improving housing financial services, which not only reiterated that the minimum interest rate discount for the first suite is off, but also determined by the second suite, propose "neither house nor loan recognition" standards. Its strength is deemed to be "Beyond Expectation" by the market ".

Beijing Zhongyuan pointed out that the policy's strength is "5 times higher than" to relax the purchase limit, and the signal of "saving the market" is very significant. CICC believes that improved demand generally accounts for 15%-25% of market demand, and the new policy will significantly reduce the down payment ratio of "buy one" improved property buyers, it is estimated that the short-term purchasing demand will be restored by 10%-20%.

In October 5, the central bank decided to adjust the credit policy for the fourth quarter and proposed "flexible use of multiple monetary policy tools to maintain moderate liquidity and achieve reasonable growth of monetary credit and social financing scale ".

Based on the two policies, the overall tone is significantly positive for the property market. Hu jinghui, vice president of weiye I love my family, believes that as the central bank has put forward credit support for reasonable self-occupancy housing demands, as major commercial banks continue to implement differentiated credit policies of the central bank, for some reasonable self-occupancy and improved homebuyers, the fourth quarter and the period before the Spring Festival will be a good time for real estate.

However, it is worth noting that the real implementation of favorable policies takes only a few days. According to a survey by China Securities News, according to the new policies of the Central Bank, most banks have implemented the latest Second Suite identification standards. However, most of the loan interest rates remain in the pre-implementation standards, and there is no substantial offer.

Hu jinghui believes that the progress of the National Day property market recovery is still limited, which indicates that the market has experienced a relatively obvious short-term wait-and-see sentiment without determining the specific implementation strength of commercial banks. For the second-hand housing market, which has a particularly positive effect on the new mortgage policy, the short-term wait-and-view feature is more significant.

He said that due to the wide range of people involved in the "new mortgage policy", different cities also have their own market characteristics. Therefore, prior to the implementation of specific implementation of commercial banks, the effect of short-term policies is hard to show. However, he also pointed out that the effect will gradually become apparent in the next few months.

With regard to the implementation of credit policies, the Central Bank issued a notice that commercial banks can control and implement the policies based on their own conditions. Most analysts pointed out that, according to the decision-making cycle of banks, specific measures may be launched in middle October or later. Therefore, even if the market recovers in the later stage, but most of the time the transaction in the earlier stage is sluggish, the traditional "golden nine silver ten" will still face the dilemma of poor quality.

Four rumors of price increases

The introduction of the new credit policy will not only promote the recovery of transaction volume, but may also make house prices rise again ". Recently, according to a copy of the "Greentown group Zhejiang region company Document", Greentown group asked all projects in the eastern Zhejiang region to sort the prices of competitor products starting from October 8, the price was raised from 5% to 10% according to the city and project conditions, and will be fully implemented from January 1, November 1.

After verification by multiple parties, the reporter confirmed the authenticity of the document. Although it is not ruled out that there is speculation, most insiders still believe that if the credit policy is strong enough, in areas with tight supply and demand relations and long decline in house prices, it is not surprising that the price of some real estate projects increases. In addition, during the National Day holiday, several other large real estate companies also sent messages about price adjustments, but they were not confirmed.

"The price increase or not depends on the specific project. However, after this document is published, there will be fewer price reductions ." A person in charge of a listed real estate company told the China Securities News reporter that the introduction of the new credit policy will inevitably affect the Real Estate Enterprises' pricing strategies.

Chain home property believes that, according to the new identification standards, eligible second-Suite buyers can not only reduce the down payment, but also the interest cost is equivalent to a decrease of 40%. Because the actual cost of purchasing a house is significantly reduced, the real estate project can adjust the price to compensate for the previous profit loss.

Up to now, there have not been any significant price increases in the overall market. However, analysts believe that future real estate projects will not be ruled out by reducing discounts, reducing discounts, and other forms of disguised price increases.

According to CICC's analysis, most of the current real estate companies do not have sufficient funds and the market focus is on inventory removal. As a result, there will not be too many real estate agents who take the initiative to raise prices, and the price increase will not evolve into a large-scale event.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from the first eight months of this year, real estate development enterprises have invested 7906.2 billion yuan in place, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and the growth rate has declined for eight consecutive months. During the same period last year, real estate companies saw a 28.9% growth in capital. As of the end of August, commercial housing for sale nationwide was 561.6 million square meters, almost doubling in the last two years.

Zhang Dawei also believes that October will be the implementation month of the credit policy, and the subsequent implementation of the policy will be the most critical factor affecting the market. On the whole, however, the space for Further downgrading in the market has been "blocked" by the loose credit policy ".

(China Securities News-CSI)

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Property Market Credit New Deal strength supermarkets expect property prices to rise