The central bank's 930 New Deal launches mortgage securitization, which will shake 10 trillion into the property market

The central bank's 930 New Deal Launched mortgage securitization will spur 10 trillion into the real estate macro-economy observation report [Weibo] I want to share 3

Real estate new financial age: 100,000 million MBS imagination

Chen Zhe wanxiao

Today, if you are a high-quality customer of the mortgage service, you may enjoy a higher position on the bank Application List. In the future, you may be able to get lower interest rates from the bank, but the house is mortgaged to a brokerage and directly lent to you by the Provident Fund center, or, A big mom who buys insurance.

This is an ideal model for MBS (Mort-Gage-backedsecurity housing mortgage-backed securities. This financial product, originating from Wall Street, aims to increase the liquidity of mortgage assets to increase the ability of financial institutions to put personal housing loans, and may change the future ecology of China's housing market.

In September 30, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on further improving housing and financial services, relaxing the mortgage policy closely related to self-occupation demands, banks are also encouraged to raise funds by issuing MBS and special financial bonds with a long term to increase Loan Investment.

Although the relaxation of housing loans is more eye-catching in the real estate market, many observers still focus on keywords such as MBS and long-term financial bonds.

"Both saving the market and reform ." Jiang Xun, chief economist of the non-governmental independent financial think tank, said: "In my opinion, the relaxation of housing loans in the New Deal only relieves the Abnormal administrative regulation in the past. The true core is the open source of real estate finance, in particular, MBS is encouraged." This is in the same line with the central bank opening up the inter-bank market in early September, which is equivalent to opening two doors for real estate in terms of demand and supply.

According to the Economic Observer (Weibo), the MBS business has conducted internal research in many commercial banks such as Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank, but there is no timetable for launching the business.

According to informed sources, the Bank of Communications began to conduct relevant business research in May, and plans to issue the first RMBs (personal housing mortgage loan asset securitization) with a scale of 7 billion yuan ), "The work has been advancing, and the Central Bank may speed up its work after posting ".

The liquidity imbalance between China's commercial banking system's liabilities and assets is becoming increasingly serious, and the face-to-face and use of asset securitization, such as the launch of MBS, has been recognized by the industry as a good medicine to solve the problem, on the one hand, MBS solves the liquidity imbalance problem of commercial banks, and on the other hand, it provides a huge space for imagination to revitalize the real estate financing market, revitalize inventory to support the development of the real economy, perhaps beyond the financial innovation product itself.

MBS accelerates by 100,000 million imagination

According to people familiar with the matter, bank transactions are expected to be listed in banks that release MBS products after the 9th 30 s deal.

As early as March this year, the Bank issued a research notice, the first order of RMBs to be launched for the entire bank, and asked its branches to report their respective asset securitization scale.

The so-called RMBs refers to the Bank's selection of some individual housing mortgage loans to set up an asset package, and transfer each loan in the asset package and its ancillary guarantee rights to the trustee, the entrusted institution issues beneficiary securities in the form of asset-backed securities and pays the assets-backed securities income in cash generated by the property.

For example, if someone buys a house with a down payment of 0.3 million in two years, the base interest rate is 30 years, the two-year repayment of the principal is 1 million, and the current market value of the house is 60 thousand. At this time, if the Bank packs 0.64 million of the mortgage loan into MBS, the collateral is sufficient, and the issuance interest rate is 5%, the bank will smoothly get back all the loan principal and free up the loan quota, and transfer the risk to the securities market, and get a fixed interest margin (mortgage rate-MBS interest rate-issuance fee) each year ).

An internal person from the bank said that the initial RMBs pilot scale of the bank was about 7 billion yuan. After the issuance was successful, the corresponding released loan scale was still used by the original issuing branch of the loan.

The head office of the bank of China mentioned in the research documents at that time that it intends to give priority to the branches that meet the following conditions to conduct pilot projects: first, the housing loan business management specifications, no major violations or serious fake mortgage projects; second, in 2014, the prices of new mortgage loans were higher than the bank's average, and the pricing trend was positive. Third, the Bank was able to meet the requirements for business restructuring in 2014, and its small and micro businesses and consumer loan businesses were well developed.

According to the Bank of Communications, this business is mainly implemented by the General Manager and reported to the branch for pilot purposes. "Data packets have been sent back and forth several times, but the assessment on the Quality of loan assets is relatively cautious. In addition, many businesses gave way to the launch of the new system, so the progress was not very fast ."

It is also known that Citic Securities, which has strong innovation capabilities, has completed the product solution for a single MBS business commissioned by a large bank, but has not yet been announced and is seeking more bank cooperation. It is reported that Haitong Securities and GUOTAIJUNAN are all involved in similar businesses.

The head of the fixed income department of a brokerage that is actively seeking for the Business said that at the policy level, on the one hand, the promotion of the Central Bank, and on the other hand, the draft for soliciting opinions on Asset Securitization of asset management institutions, all are accelerating the introduction of MBS.

In the past, domestic commercial banks issued only three MBS, and the first one was initiated by China Construction Bank in, and Citic trust issued the first domestic MBS-Jianyuan-1 personal housing mortgage securities, the total scale reached 3 billion yuan. Since then, China Construction Bank has initiated a total of 4 billion RMB-1 personal housing mortgage securities. In July this year, China Postal Savings Bank initiated the "successful bidding for the first phase of Personal Housing Loan Support securitization product (RMBs) in the interbank market in 2014, with a total scale of 6.814 billion RMB ".

The head of China Southern Fund's fixed income department told this newspaper that the company had purchased asset securitization products of CDB and CCB in 2005. "The income must be higher than that of short financing and credit, but the liquidity is poor ".

The reasons for not doing well are: the policy is not sustained, and the market impulse is fading. The most important reason is that China's financial market is not developed enough, and the interest rate is not fully market-oriented. As a result, the secondary market investment of MBS products is inactive and investors are few.

Real estate's new financial age

Today is different from the past.

For a long time, policy timing and market impulse for the launch of MBS and Other Assets-Backed Securitization products have always been inconsistent. When the monetary policy was tightened in the first half of 2011, commercial banks wanted to sell assets through asset securitization due to the pressure of scale, capital, and profit. However, regulatory authorities believed that the time was inappropriate. Once commercial banks are allowed to try credit asset securitization, commercial banks can sell loans continuously without breaking through the overall scale, it undoubtedly increases the difficulty of the central bank's control over the total amount of social financing. In the middle of 2012, the background and situation of the entire macro-economy have changed, which is different from the situation in the first half of the year. Policy timing is approaching, but the market impulse is less. But now, both the policy timing and the market impulse are there.

According to the report of China Merchants Securities, the decline in the secondary retention ratio of Credit Asset Securitization at the end of 2013 will greatly promote the enthusiasm of banks for developing asset securitization. At present, about 10 trillion yuan of domestic mortgage loan securitization has broad prospects.

Ouyang Jie, senior vice president of Xincheng holdings, said that in the first and second quarters of this year, many real estate companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are facing the capital chain issue. The most terrible issue is not necessarily limited purchase, however, the bank's credit pity and individual lending cycle are too long, making it difficult for enterprises to withdraw funds.

As early as May this year, the central bank asked commercial banks to increase their loan support for self-built housing demands, but in the end, there was a lot of thunder and rain. "Although the personal loan business risk is relatively small, in an environment where the Bank's position is tight, commercial banks do not catch a cold in considering this business with limited profits and long periods of time, therefore, the statements made by the President (Liu Shiyu, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank) have little effect." A large state-owned official said.

Wang Han, Chief macro analyst of Ningbo Securities, said at a conference call in October 8: "Why have banks been cautious with mortgage loans since this year? The core reason is that commercial bank deposits are transferred to financial management, which leads to higher and higher debt instability and lower the willingness of the asset end to configure mortgage loans with a relatively long period of time. This long-period mismatch problem can only be solved by asset securitization, specifically the Chinese version of RMBs ." "The background of this MBS business is to address the continuous shortage of the bank's credit scale, to revitalize the stock, and to replace the birds, to solve the serious problem of the bank's credit business backlog in some branches, this year's credit asset securitization business plan is integrated with the Bank's current year." The aforementioned bank said.

A person from one of the four major accounting firms who participated in the MBS Business said that the MBS business can theoretically bring several benefits to banks. One is to transfer personal loans out of the table to reduce liabilities and increase cash flow; second, the difference between the loan and MBS interest rates, and even the channel intermediary fee. Third, it reduces the difficulty of matching the long-term assets and short-term liabilities of banks in the personal loan business in the past.

"The year-period in the United States is similar to that in China, with a high debt ratio and high bank leverage. The residents' funds are abundant, but the balance sheet cannot be improved for enterprises through deposit and loan channels due to the high leverage of banks. Therefore, the path selected by the United States is through the assets of the securitization enterprises and purchased by the residents. In this way, enterprises obtain funds to invest in new production capacity ." Wang Han said.

In the United States, Mortgage-Backed Securitization developed rapidly after interest rate marketization. the MBS balance increased significantly from $1980 in 11.1 billion to $2007 in 9.3 trillion, in the same period, the ABS rate of housing mortgage loans also increased from 7.6% to 64%, which greatly promoted the development of the U.S. financial and real estate markets.

In China, so far, the balance of personal housing loans has reached about 10 trillion, which is a potential stock asset of MBS.

Brokers and funds acting as intermediary agencies in the MBS business seem to have expressed a strong interest in this innovative business.

The head of the fixed income department of a large brokerage that is negotiating MBS business with a number of banks said that, due to the limited scale in the short term, the brokers who are the issuer and the trustee may not be able to obtain too much income, but in the long run, the profit will be considerable. In addition, our participation in this type of business has also accumulated valuable experience for future bank assets securitization cooperation.

"According to incomplete statistics, in 2014, the personal housing loan balance reached about 10 trillion yuan. If MBS is issued based on half of the quota, it is equivalent to 4 ~ 5 trillion of liquidity. Considering the increase in the enthusiasm of banks for personal loans, the size of personal loans will be greatly increased ." A real estate fund boss in Hangzhou said.

"From the issuer's perspective, even if you charge 0.1% of the channel fee, that is, billions or even tens of billions of income ." According to the real estate fund owner, the key is to find funds with high risk requirements and low income requirements.

"The major banks are steadily promoting the development of asset-backed securities businesses. Currently, MBS is mainly released between banks and will have a significant effect by next year. As interest rate marketization advances and investors tend to diversify, MBS is expected to increase the overall market scale ." A person familiar with Citic Securities said.

"MBS and REITs have called for years of financial business to change the source of funds in the real estate market. The core of MBS is that capital will be global after securitization. If we take into account the progress of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Exchange, personal housing mortgage loans will produce extremely low capital costs. After obtaining these financing channels, the bank can increase the current loan asset inventory by 0.5 to 10 trillion or more as long as it gives a slight margin of 20 trillion points ." Said the fund.

Reality

The head of the fixed income department of a large brokerage told this newspaper that in addition to Bank of Communications, several state-owned banks are working on MBS pilot schemes. Both China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank have tried similar businesses. "In July this year, china Postal Savings Bank issued an MBS, and currently there are still several single products reported to the management by the bank."

"From foreign experiences, MBS plays a very important role in the real estate market, but there are a lot of short-term high-yield products in the domestic market. MBS may have more than 10 years of validity, and a relatively low rate of return, it is difficult to do it on a large scale if there are no investors like the two houses ". A person from one of the four accounting firms said.

Economic Observer understands that several large domestic brokers are involved in the formulation of the Bank's MBS solution. One of the brokers said, "In fact, the prototype of the product has been completed, but the design of such products is generally within 10 ~ In the past 15 years, the interest rate was relatively low, and the effect of pre-sales communication was not obvious ."

According to the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, MBS development will not be achieved overnight: first, there are many alternative assets with a short period of time and high returns in the market. MBS assets may be less attractive when investors' risk appetite is high; second, when the overall debt of Financial Institutions decreases for a long period, it is difficult to find funds for MBS assets in the long period. Third, the past 10 years have seen a boom in real estate, there is no reliable empirical estimation of parameters such as default rate and prepayment rate in micro-pricing.

Wang Han of Ningbo Securities believes that the central bank has two ways to promote asset securitization to stabilize the real estate market: first, the central bank lent loans to CDB, and CDB bought the assets securitization products of commercial banks, that is, the Chinese version of QE; the other is that the residents voluntarily purchase asset securitization products, so that banks can free up their lending quotas to issue more mortgage loans.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank issued a report in October 9 saying that MBS will become a channel for targeted stimulus by the Central Bank of China in the future. The possible mode of operation is that the National Development Bank buys MBS bonds issued by the market and uses them as collateral to apply for Psl financing from the central bank of china. "If a financial institution is able to operate itself and make it into a financial product, this prospect is still quite large, but the key lies in the support of policies ." "From the Perspective of Debt Scale, debt duration, and risk preferences, insurance funds and banks may be suitable buyers," said the four major figures ."

Wang Han also believes that to increase residents' willingness to buy assets securitization products, on the one hand, the decline in inter-bank interest rates will drive down the financial interest rate; on the other hand, the loan interest rate cannot be reduced too quickly, this will directly determine the rate of return of assets securitization products.

In addition to the difficulty for buyers, MBS has little experience to learn from, making it difficult to issue and trade the product on a large scale.

"Because MBS products have high requirements on the quality of asset packages, the bulk mortgage change procedures are complicated. For the grass-roots units of banks, first, they have contributed high-quality personal loan assets, second, the workload is greatly increased. If the Head Office does not explicitly link the business with the assessment, there is no strong motivation below." Said the head of the retail business of a sub-branch in Shanghai, a state-owned bank.

The above-mentioned person said, "Because the repayment time of a house mortgage loan may be 1 ~ In any year between 30 years, once prepayment occurs, MBS's cash flow becomes uncertain. This includes the product pricing mechanism and so on. It still takes a long period of practical experience to launch MBS on a large scale ."

(Economic Observer)

Related reading:

· Existing mortgage securitization will not be launched on a large scale in the near future · The initial phase scale of Personal Mortgage Securitization re-initiated by the Postal Savings Bank is 6.814 billion · China Construction Bank first announced the new housing policy plan · State-owned banks implement new measures for implementing the new mortgage policy

The central bank's 930 New Deal launches mortgage securitization, which will shake 10 trillion into the property market