This year's stock market

   Population structure, commodity prices, and technological innovation are three important factors that affect the stock market cycle. The population structure has an impact period of about 50 years, and scientific and technological innovation has an impact period of about 30 years, the commodity cycle is about 30 years. Analyzing the trend of A-shares based on these three cycles will provide us with a brand new perspective on the market.

   Three cycles overlap into a low point

   The data shows that our country has entered the demographic dividend phase since 1965, that is, the decline in the ratio of raising to saving has increased. At present, we are in the post-demographic dividend period. In 2010, the ratio of raising-to-raising ratio and saving-to-population ratio will change exponentially, that is, the demographic dividend will gradually become a demographic debt. The long-term demographic dividend has brought about a large amount of economic accumulation and wealth accumulation among residents in China, and the potential influence on assets is also increasing. However, as the demographic dividend enters the inflection point in 2010, the future asset prices (stock market and real estate market) will be affected to varying degrees by the decline in demand for financial assets.

   The statistical rules of several technological innovations and economic cycles in history show that the long period of the world economy based on technological innovation shows a declining trend in general. For example, the first long cycle (1780-1840 years) of the textile industry-led industry lasted 60 years, and the second long cycle (1840-1892 years) of the steel industry-led industry lasted 52 years, the third long cycle (1892-1935 years) dominated by the petrochemical industry lasted 43 years, and the fourth long cycle (1935-1982 years) dominated by the automobile industry lasted 47 years, the fifth long cycle (1982-) dominated by the IT industry is coming to an end. Judging from the current international attention on new energy and low-carbon economy and the investment quotas of related projects, 2010 may be the end of the fifth cycle and the starting point of the new technological innovation cycle.

   According to the typical long-wave period of Kant layev, the long-period fluctuations of resource commodities show eight long-wave periods, which are 1781-1814 (33 years), 1814-1840 (26 years), respectively), 1840-1864 (24 years), 1864-1890 (26 years), 1890-1918 (28 years), 1918-1950 (32 years), 1950-1980 (30 years ). Since July 2008, the resource commodity slump is likely to be the eighth wave of the peak since 1980. According to the 30-year cycle, after the rebound of commodities in 2009, 2010 is likely to usher in the bottom of this cycle. Because of the high weight of resource product stocks in the stock market, it will inevitably drag down the market.

   From the analysis of the three major cycles, we can see that the superposition of the three major cycles into the trough will become a high probability event in 2010. Therefore, the volatility of the-share market in 2010 will be the main melody.

   Real Economy and liquidity support Stock Market

   Based on the situation of the real economic recovery and liquidity situation since 2009, the main driving force of the strong rebound in China's stock market in 2009 is the economic stimulus policy, the excess liquidity derived from this, and the real economic recovery. In the second half of 2009, the inflow of hot money increased momentum in China's Asset Market (stock market and real estate. From this, we infer that the main factors that determine the market trend in 2010 are the physical economic recovery process and liquidity supply.

   Although the current economic data shows that the overall economic situation is in a state of high growth and moderate inflation, the worries about the withdrawal of stimulus policies are intensifying: on the one hand, we are worried that policy contraction and exit will lead to economic growth loss of recovery momentum; on the other hand, we are worried that if we do not contract monetary policy, inflation will rise rapidly, and policy needs to strike a balance between economic growth and inflation. The stock market needs to select a direction in the game of economic growth, inflation, and policy.

   The stock market can reach 4300 points in the year

   Based on the analysis of historical experience, we can draw two conclusions: first, a timely and moderate contraction of the monetary policy and the withdrawal of the over-stimulus policy last year will help ease and suppress future inflation pressure; second, due to the non-synchronization of economic growth factors, even if the monetary policy is moderately tightened, the excessive withdrawal of stimulus policies, and the growth of fixed assets investment declines, the external demand lags behind and recovers, the trend of economic growth will not fall sharply. Therefore, in the short term, the expected change in monetary policy and the alternate factors of economic growth will increase the volatility of the market and even bring about adjustments. However, as the factors of economic growth alternate in the medium term, market opportunities are still greater than risks. In view of this, we believe that in 2010, there may be macro-economy "high before low", policy "tightening first and then loose", and stock market "Boosting first.

   Statistics on historical data show that the narrow sense of money supply (M1) is a good indicator for the Shanghai stock index. Our empirical study found that if M1 grows at 13% ~ About 15%, the central position of the Shanghai Stock Index is about 3400 points. If the narrow sense of money supply growth falls back to 8% in the lower range of history, the Shanghai Stock Index is about 2600 points offline. Under the condition that the monetary policy is "first tight and then loose", the narrow-sense money supply growth can still achieve an annual growth of 18% ~ 20%, the Shanghai stock index can be launched at around 4100. If stock index futures and margin financing can boost the enthusiasm of the market, the highest point of the Shanghai Stock Index may reach around 4300 points.