[Translation] Why is estimation difficult ?! Travel from San Francisco to Los Angeles

Infoq translated an article about the "estimation" of the foreigner's tucao software.ArticleIt is called estimation, which is very difficult, such ~ . I followed the related comments of the article and the original post of this blog from the Forum comments (in fact, the comments of Michael Wolfe in the original article ). Michael writes well. I think it is worth translating and retaining references.

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Travel from San Francisco to Los Angeles

By Michael wofle, CEO of pipewise Inc.

My friend and I are going to walk along the coast to visit our friends from San Francisco to the new port beach in Los Angeles. I took out a map and drew a travel route along the coast.

The route is about 400 miles long. We can walk 4 miles per hour and 10 hours per day, so we plan to walk to Singapore beach in 10 days. We called our friends at Singapore beach and asked them to book a restaurant next Sunday. Then we will have a party from! They can't wait!

So early in the morning, we began this adventure with sleep and excitement.

Day 1

Now, we plan the first day of the trip. Let's open the map...

From the map, there are countless turns in the first day of the trip. If we only walk 40 miles a day, we can only walk half the Moon Bay: the bottom of the route ). So the trip should be at least 500 miles rather than 400 miles. We called our friends to postpone the carnival until Tuesday. It's better to be realistic, right ?! Of course, my friends are very disappointed, but they still look forward to seeing us. Besides, 12 days from San Francisco to Los Angeles cannot go anywhere, right?

Although we were a little upset, we had to leave. We just walked through the zoo two hours later. How? Let's take a look at the following path:

Look at the sand, the sea, the ladder, the tide... We now only walk 2 miles in an hour, with only half the expected speed. We either walk for 20 hours every day. Otherwise, we have to wait for another week for our friends! It takes 20 hours to get tired in one day! Well, we have two plans: We walk for 12 hours every day and notify our friends to push for another week. They are a little angry, but there is no way to do it. Let's see you next week.

After 12 hours, we camp at Moss beach that day. Shit: When a tent encounters a strong wind, it just goes to bed in the middle of the night. He can only comfort himself and say, "Okay, we will be able to speed up the rest tomorrow.

Day 2

We get up late, sore and exhausted. It is now ten o'clock A.M. F.. k! We can't live for 12 hours today. We still need to spend 10 hours today, and then we will leave 14 hours tomorrow to make up for it. We packed up and went on the road.

After walking slowly for a few hours, I found my companions started to roll. Oh shit, my feet have blisters! We can't slow down this problem, so we have to solve it right away. I ran for 45 minutes and 3 miles to Pescadero, took some medicine and supplies, and ran back to my companions. I am exhausted, and the sun goes down. Today we are finished, and we only walk 6 miles. Before going to bed, I think we get supplies and breaks, we will get better, and tomorrow we will catch up with the progress.

Day 3

In the morning, we got up and started. Just turned around and looked at it, shit! What is this!

This shit is not marked on the map of goddamn! We only had three miles from the inland, and lost two times in the middle. It's already noon when we go back to the coast. According to the original route, only one more mile forward. We can no longer call our friends and say we have to postpone the call. So today we have been in the middle of the night, hoping to catch up with the progress.

We are not sleeping well when the fog starts in the evening. We will wake up from time to time.

Day 4

When my companions wake up in the morning, they have headaches and fever. I asked him if he could hold on? He said, "What do you want, bastard! I 've been walking for three days in the weather. What do you want !"

Well, it's a waste today. We can only stop for rest and recovery. Once we have a good rest and have been honed over the past few days, we will spend 14 hours every day starting tomorrow. In just a few days, we can stick to it.

Day 5

We woke up in the morning. I took a look at the map:

Holy shit! Our 10-day journey to 5th days has not reached the semi-Moon Bay! This is really TMD .... No, you have to make an accurate estimation again. Although I told my friends that I had to postpone it again, I really estimated it this time.

The companion said that we had traveled 40 miles in four days, and the total journey now seems to be 600 miles, so it would take 60 or more days in total, and 70 days would be inaccurate.

I said, "No! I did not walk this way before, but I'm sure it will take 70 days from San Francisco to Los Angeles! How will friends laugh at us? We couldn't even meet before Easter ."

I continued: "and if you agree to take 16 hours a day, we can change. This is a bit difficult, but now is a critical moment. Come on !"

My companions are angry: "At the beginning, you said that you will be able to get together next Sunday. It was your estimation that was wrong. You want to let me die !"

Day 6

In the morning, we waited for a storm in the tent. Start at 10 o'clock. All the way with sore muscles and new blisters. But no one mentioned the quarrel yesterday. It was just half an hour before my idiot put the kettle on his way.

Our hand paper is also used up, and we have to wait until we reach the next town to compensate. Thinking about it, there was a river in front of me to block the road. It seemed that my stomach hurt and I felt diarrhea for a while...

 

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