What are experts? I really want to know)

What's an expert? I sincerely want to know.

Someone asked in Quora, "Should the answer be classified as expert/non-expert? "

My response:

No experts.

First, there are a bunch of anecdotes.

In 1799, George Washington caught a cold and coughed and had a high fever. This is considered an emergency. The greatest living American is ill! In about 2000, blood was considered a major force in the body. If someone is ill, some stuff in the blood needs to be discharged. Eventually, bloodletting. I don't know if the blood-sucking likes are involved. The next day, George Washington died. The cause of death is not a cold, but shock, too much blood.

In 1981, just 33 years ago, Bill Gates said, "No one has to put a computer at home ."

No one knows what the universe of 97% is composed of (the physicist calls it "dark energy" or "dark matter", but there is still no theory about what it is or what it is ).

The following is an important story about investors.

About a decade ago, a company named Odeo built a platform for podcasts was born. Two programmers developed an amateur project with only a little motivation. They registered 10,000 people, less than the number of readers who read this article. The CEO was frustrated with the podcast platform because no one was registered. Therefore, he made a quote for all investors. These investors are the most prestigious and sophisticated people in Silicon Valley, and the CEO is an old bird. He said they will concentrate on this amateur project, but if someone wants to withdraw the investment, he will be willing to repurchase it. No one has earned or lost any money. 100% of professional investors have to pay back their money.

Then the CEO renamed the company Twitter.

Larry Page and Sergey Brin wanted to be scholars who tried to sell their company to Yahoo for $1 million, and they were rejected. Then they tried to sell it to excite for $1 million and were rejected. They lowered the price to $0.75 million and are still rejected. So they decided, okay, let's do it.

In 2001, I had the opportunity to buy half of the company named oingo. They spent all their cash. My VC company saw that someone came to my office and said, "We may not get anything ." At that time, oingo was basically an alarm system for people to purchase words on search engines. I said, "Are you kidding? The entire search engine business is dead ." I am an expert, I have 0.12 billion yuan in investment, and I have made 13 "expert" books. I talked on TV about how great it is to become an expert.

The name of oingo is applied semantics. Google bought oingo with 1% of the company's shares, and applied semantics became AdSense, contributing 99% of Google's revenue. Now, half of the company may be worth $0.5 billion.

I used to do many websites. I want to build a business based on each website. I showed my six-year-old daughter a website. I was very excited and didn't explain what it was, but she basically said, "I don't understand. It seems to make a little sense to people." She said yes, no one registered. In fact, no one wants to register on any website I developed.

Once we strolled down the street, she said which company she thought would shut down and why. Basically, she is right in all aspects. I should ask her to invest in me.

I decided to try at least one website, but I was skeptical. The competition was so fierce that millions of people registered, and I sold tens of millions of dollars eight months later.

If you divide the world into experts and non-experts, who are the experts? Who is monitoring these judges?

Academic Circles cannot be standards. How do you know that from now on, in 200, you will not come across George Washington's bloodbleed therapy in that year, or the story version of anyone who withdrew funds from Twitter 10 years ago.

Professional experience cannot be a standard. Bernie Madoff was once the head of NASDAQ and has been a "successful" hedge fund manager for decades. Enron, WorldCom, and AIG were three of the most respected companies before they went bankrupt or were sold.

Is the net asset worth making someone an expert? There are too many anecdotes, but I am sure you can find experts who are not necessarily rich but passionate about their fields in every field.

One famous example is Bill James, who essentially invented the statistical usage used to generate a world-class rule baseball team. Or Nate Silver, even though he has little political experience and all political spokespersons do not recognize him, he predicted the election results for each constituency.

Does this mean we are all dummies? I don't know. I'm not smart enough to answer this question. But it means that all of us can make a sound and anyone can choose to listen.

 

Http://news.cnblogs.com/n/505727/

What are experts? I really want to know)