Whether Moore's law still applies

1. What is Moore's Law

There are three important laws about the Internet: Moore's Law , Gilder 's Law and Meitkav's Law . One of the earliest and most famous is probably known as Moore's Law.

Moore's law was proposed by Gordon Moore, one of Intel's founders, Gordon Moore. The content is: when the price is unchanged, the number of components that can be accommodated on the integrated circuit will increase by one times every 18-24 months, and the performance will be increased by one times. In other words, the computer performance that every dollar can buy will be doubled every 18-24 months.

This law reveals the speed with which information technology is progressing. And the computer industry has been following Moore's law in the past decades to sketch the blueprint for the future.
But this normality is gradually losing its place today. For example, Daniel Reed, a computer scientist at the University of Iowa, said Daniel Ride. The Semiconductor Industry Association in Washington DC (The Semiconductor Industry Association, SIA), on behalf of all U.S. semiconductor companies, has said it is no longer involved in the global semiconductor industry research planning Blueprint, but has decided on its own development progress. Why. 2. The limitations of Moore's law in today's 1. Heat dissipation

As the electrons in the smaller silicon circuits move more and more quickly, the chips begin to overheat .
This is a very serious problem, the heat generated by the processor is difficult to eliminate, so the chip manufacturers chose their only solution, Gargini said, the device vendor no longer pursues the absolute number of calculations, that is, the speed at which the processor executes instructions. This amounts to an upper limit on the speed of the chip's electronic operation and limits the amount of heat generated, which has never changed since 2004.
Although the speed can not be increased, but in order to chip performance in accordance with Moore's law to promote, the manufacturer has redesigned the chip's internal circuitry, with no more than one processor (or "kernel") per chip, but two, four, or more (now many of the chips for computers and mobile phones are quad or eight-core processors). In general, a single gigabit kernel can now be divided into four 250 MHz cores. In reality, however, to use eight processors means that one problem needs to be divided into eight parts, and many algorithms are hard to even fail to do this, and "If there is a part that is not being exploited, you are limiting the speed of your processing," Gargini said. 2. Material

Moore's law did accurately predict the growth trend of transistors in the previous years. In the 1975, there were nearly 65,000 components in a newly emerging charge-charging device memory chip, consistent with the 1965 mole predictions. According to Intel's statistics, the number of transistors on a single chip, from 2,300 on the 1971 4004 processor, grew to 7.5 million on the Pentiumii processor in 1997 and 3,200 times times more in 26 years. If, according to the projections of "doubling every two years", 26 years should include 13 doubling cycles, each cycle, the number of integrated components on the chip should be increased by 2 n times (0≤n≤12), so to the 13th cycle that 26 after the number of components this and the actual growth of 3,200 times times can be quite close.
But because of this, with the transistor volume further reduced, today's top chip manufacturers circuit accuracy has reached 14 nm, than most viruses are smaller. The behavior of electrons will be limited by quantum uncertainty, and the transistor will become unreliable because it has to start thinking about the complex problems of quantum interactions. At this point there are only two roads in front of people: either stop reducing the transistor volume and switch to a breakthrough in optimizing the CPU architecture, or use another material instead of silicon for CPU production.
Now scientists in all countries have explored both, and even some of the results, but in the near future, there is no doubt the main silicon.
3. Cost

Moore's law is equivalent to an exponential function of less than 1 in the number of transistors (n power of 0.7). In other words, as the transistor volume gradually decreased, the production of each CPU difficulty in proportion to increase the performance of the increase is gradually slowing. This makes the further small transistor become a measure of loss of value, also lost its significance.

As for the process, device instability and deviation factors are clearly there, there is no in-depth interpretation. As for the future of Moore's Law, I believe we have our own ideas in mind, goodbye.