Why global house prices rose 20 years is the top _ turn

The rule of global house prices: Why is the price rise 20 years is the top?

One, up to the present singing empty sing multi-price speech is speculation!

For the house price problem, until now. I didn't see a piece of writing that convinced me to write hard roots. It's not that I'm arrogant, I always like to find hard-roots stuff.

Look back at some of the past talk of bullish and bearish rates. The more positive comments are economic, urbanization, Chinese, and some negative rise in the rhetoric, are all kinds of conspiracy theory, which I do not dare to write, one is illegal one is not the right way, such as the cannon, although he said the rise to, but took people to crooked thoughts, and finally he was sealed.

And some of the comments on the empty house prices are even more, not to say that the rise is high, said the regulation to be a big recruit. For example, Andy Xie is the American experience to sing the vacancy price, the result was wrong nearly 20 years. There is a more radical, the annual vacancy rate, the speech is more, basically no more than the cannon extreme. I'm afraid to write it here. Overall, they look at the empty bullish, full of speculation and feeling. Even according to the Foreigner's play more.

I often communicate with you, play one thing, to understand the rules of the game from beginning to end to comment. If the game rules are found to be changed in the process, it should be corrected in time. All to guess and feel must be wrong, no root no according to you say up on the rise? Say you fall or fall? Bo luck?

Why doesn't anyone dare tell you the truth?

For the price of the author before the research and publication of less, one is not my focus, a really little research. There is also a a-share of the real estate market too little. So there is less research. In addition to the 2007 Daniel, the real estate sector so far no market. But there is always a basis for everything, the recent two years of housing policy changes particularly large, so attracted the author's research interests. Through the analysis from beginning to end, from rule to law, the author has recently given a "price peak view" which is basically no one to refute at present! That is the "bank rules that no lending for more than 20 years" is a turning point in Chinese house prices. Now is a good time to sell a house. or Diaofang position good cycle. It's a good place to sell and rent.

Now that Li Ka-shing has run, many people are still laughing at him! What's he doing? Play real estate near a lifetime of people, what makes him decide to go now? Very simple! He knows the rules of real estate games. Is he the only one who understands? Not only he understands, is only he and so a few people understand, because also understand and can do only he. So today became the richest man in Asia. Others are not afraid to say or dare to do, some do not know what dare to say what dare to do.

The law of house prices in emerging countries and developed countries

Representatives of emerging countries: Japan, Thailand, China, Brazil.

Developed countries: The United States, Europe, and some 200 years of war-free countries.

How many years have Japan's house prices collapsed?

The 1964 Tokyo Olympic Games began to activate, 1985 Plaza agreement after the full range of prices erupted, 1989 began to collapse. The rise span period is about 25 years long! Other countries I will not talk nonsense. Just say Japanese one, they are more like us. Rapid economic growth, housing prices blowout is similar.

In short, Japan has real estate, which is really after the 1964 Tokyo Olympics. Before was defeated, nothing. It's no different from poor white before we open up. After all the big development, the economy up. The lever is up, too. The bank puts money around to give you a loan for advice. Why? The economy has got a lot of people, you do not borrow out how do you pay the interest of depositors? So various find you coax you to borrow money from the bank. Borrow as much as you can, save more people so you have more desire to borrow. This is how China's banking industry is now. Fortunately, our country is smart enough to plan and regulate, not as runaway as Japan.

20 years before the Japanese house price crash, banks have lent you leverage to buy a house! 0 What is very normal, Hong Kong now has a negative down payment (Hong Kong is not the same, we have a lot of money in the mainland arch, so the negative down payment of this world-class invention). Yes, 20 years before the house price The bank gives you a loan for 20, 30 years. The last 0 pay is the equivalent of giving you a loan for 70 (70 property). And then what? And then, the bank will never tell you: we don't refinance when you don't have a mortgage. Simply put, you have 70 years of property rights have been finished, the end, don't want to loan again in the back. So there is a rule in the banking industry, the speculators always ignore. That is, "banks are required to refuse to lend for more than 20 years." Don't give a loan, that's your successor. That is, you want to sell houses, buy your house buyers only to buy with you, the home can not be the same as you to the bank loans to buy a house. When you think about it, how many people can buy your house all the time? In the years when banks could borrow money, they borrowed it from the west, and the whole family worked together to pay the down payment. And there are bank loans to put the lever, only to help you realize the dream of a room. The back of the people do not give the lever to buy your house, can only find a new house, to find a mortgage can be bought. Who's going to buy your house? What kind of room do you fry? How to ship? Fry your own death.

Of course. In the first 20 years, people who bought a house had less loans and a down payment, and they could live on the loan. What about the people behind the chase and the high lever? Broken supply, only broken supply, no way. This is about Japan, so you can see the collapse of Japanese house prices. Real estate crazy Development 20 years ago the bank to leverage support, house prices flying. After 20 years the property of the leveraged mortgage was exhausted, the bank did not give loans to the homes after the collapse. This is the fate of Japan's house price collapse. There's no one to tell you. You rarely see it on the Internet at least. An analysis of this cause. Fortunately, China is now restricted to buy, limit loans, limited down payment. The impact will not be as bad as in Japan, but there will be a subsequent impact. What about the impact? After that, let's talk about the law of American house prices.

Why are prices in developed countries such as the US crazy?

The United States for more than 200 years without war, real estate development stability, basically did not explode light again. Every year there are new homes for the newcomers to buy loans, but also every year to the old room to sell the negative suppression. So basically the price of the opponent, there is the bank's own natural restrictions and market natural restrictions. New house you want to sell high prices, raise the down payment, others will prefer the old room to buy all the money. So an old new natural balance controls and stabilizes prices in developed countries such as the United States. This is their law, not that they do not gamble, do not understand the speculation, but the market did not give them the opportunity.

And we are the opposite. We have the market genes and foundations of emerging countries such as Japan. So there's a stir fry! Everything is from scratch, so everything will be fired round. No under-speculation or credit speculation, there is no mortgage after the end of the finished.

Now we are talking about China's price.

China's real estate is simple to say. I'm not going to say deep. In short, the 2000 policy support for real estate reform before the start of the commercial housing this said. The development of the 2008 Olympic Games only to let the world all think of real estate. China's big bailout in 2009 has a steady stream of capital inflows to the industry. The whole outbreak has been going on for 16 years now and Japan was in the 25 crash, so we still have time to deal with the housing bubble. China also has the wisdom and ability to reduce the impact of bubbles.

Many people now hate limited purchases, and perhaps many years later the banking sector will be grateful for these restrictions. Although the more limited the more up, to unlimited purchases may rise higher and more fierce and crazy. In Japan, one Tokyo was fired to buy the United States. We China now Beijing has not been fired to buy the United States, so the overall bubble is still relatively low in Japan. But also to do a good job of risk control. Don't let yourself go the wrong way by others.

China house price Gaocheng long-term

2000 years ago, almost all of the city's development is the Old City transformation, is the original urban areas of improved development. 2000 years later is the overall development cycle of Shanghai Pudong. At this point, the development of cities all over the country has turned into the general direction of the proposed new city. Whether it's a mega city or a two or three-line city. Have started the big expansion of the new town, which is also the market demand. So far, I believe that every Chinese people find themselves in the city, has been expanded more than 3 times times. At least three times times. The provincial capital level is even basically 5 times times larger than the big expansion.

Chinese people who have left China for more than 30 years will not recognize or even take the wrong path when they return to China. Thought of dreaming into the sky tide. But this is the power of capital, the law of new markets. Because of the new, so many leverage is not to be balanced. Now China's real estate is only new homes to pull up prices, but no old house pressure control property price situation.

Everyone knows that they can borrow money from the bank, and even everyone knows they can make up the down payment, and now they are still on the down payment, which is basically no different from the 0. Can mortgage the full use of loans, as well as bare loans are used. What's the use of it? The personality is exhausted.

But, but did not tell you: the bank has a law, the House room age is over 20, is not to lend to buy second-hand housing the successor. Now you know why Li Ka-shing ran away. Does he not know the rule when he plays real estate life? Know, he knows more than 20 years not only no one can take his plate through the lever. Even knowing that 20 is not necessary, the market will react to dangers and risks in advance. The market will react in advance, not really wait until that day to cut prices. So Li Ka-shing has gone, and the price has gone. Because he knew, after the bank does not give the issuer the loan, which King eight egg has the ability of the full-time to take the price? No. So, his big discount sale is gone. He's so lucky ... Have to serve.

Chinese houses will be concentrated due

Since China is poor white, it has developed. House suggestions are all built together in the same cycle. It is also a Chinese culture, helping each other. A village in a town to start a house, through mutual help. People are more powerful. Help each other, you have all I have. This is actually a good virtue, but many people use it in hype. The House is fried! Now China is a new house, and this is a sign that one day, these new houses will also become the old room at the same time. House room Age Super 20, the bank does not give the loan! This cycle also comes at the same time. There, which one has the ability to buy your house at the price of a full payment? No. So at that time the old House will reduce prices, not to sell the price. But more tragic, how much is it going to drop?

To the current Beijing 10,000,001 suite price, then down 50%, hit 50 percent believe there are not many people can afford. You can count your own city if you are in a city house. In the condition that the bank does not give the loan, how much will it have to be reduced before someone will be able to take the position? Maybe you can think about it now. If you have a lot of houses, you can have a condom now. Let's change to a good location. If you don't have a house now, but you have to buy it, you can only appoint! But it is recommended to spell a good position, at least again after the drop can be rented out, to a point of credit. Don't play until the end of the rent is no one to answer, it is sad.

New house Hedong, secondary house Hexi

The first 20 years is a new house with secondary housing rose. After 20 years or even a longer period of time. is the city center of the secondary housing with the price of new homes, pressure to go. New house a price, the old town housing price pressure you. Hey! Don't buy a new house, Lao Tze reduced the price! Come to the city center and buy it. ...... Yes, this is the future scenario I came up with when I analyzed and measured it. If you can borrow the bank now, you can sell a good price. Li Ka-shing often sets the point now! If you only have a set of rooms, it has nothing to do with you, because there is no choice, nintendogs laugh, in fact, as free, up and down like carefree!

All right. The weekend to borrow "central Economic working Conference: to adhere to the" house is used to live, not to fry the "positioning" for the point of analysis for everyone's reference. More than 10 years have been studying the actual combat things, I prefer to study the truth and facts, those too assorted analysis, I do not. Thank you for your support!!!

Transferred from: http://hbinhan.baijia.baidu.com/article/727004

Why global house prices rose 20 years is the top _ turn