Why is house price rising? How long does it last?

Why is house price rising? How long does it last?

The root cause is the birth encouragement results of the Year. That is, the concentration of people with too many people varies greatly.

All the children after "80" are now at or near the right age of marriage. This group is the main force for purchasing houses now. In comparison with those before "80", there is a cliff. This group value is far better than the previous one.

The vast majority of people in this group cannot buy a house. At this time, the house will be purchased by those in this group who have the ability to buy a house other than this group, among them, there are only one to two sets, and several to dozens of sets (of course, the impact is actually minimal ).

Developers can see the amazing ideal digestion ability of this group, so they do not have to worry about full development. Development is to make money, and it cannot make too little money even if it is not sold. Because this group is still in place, these people always need a house, so they will sell it after all (not to mention the cost of developing these buildings has already been earned in the sold buildings ).

The team's Digest time should be 20 ~ About 30 years, or even longer. After that, it will be connected to the next-generation consumption period of the group. Although the consumption capacity of the next-generation group will decrease a lot, it is quite tempting for a considerable number of developers.

Start from the developer. Some people predict that house prices will continue to fall. From the current situation for a period of time, the price is falling in a small range. However, developers do not want to see such a phenomenon. At this time, the developers will come up with countermeasures to curb the continuous occurrence of this phenomenon (of course, whether the house price is actually falling or will immediately rise back I don't know ).

If the current house price is falling, let's see if our rental rents are getting higher and higher. As Mr. Lang Xianping said, people can't afford huge mortgages and turn to renting houses. The decline in house prices may be related to a large number of rental houses.

In this case, from the current situation forecast (if house prices continue to fall), developers should switch the direct sale of real estate to rental housing (or develop some small apartment houses, small and medium-sized apartment houses ). In the initial stage, we will use "low-rent" publicity to promote the rental and sale right (10-year, 20-year ...... Some people may not understand it here. For example, all the real estate projects developed by developers are small-sized houses with 25 to 25 small-sized households ~ 30 RMB, 30 RMB for medium users ~ 45 RMB, 20 years of rental and sale right, with a price of 0.1 million ~ 0.3 million) at this time, the price will be comparable to that of the current housing agency, or even lower than that of the intermediary in the early stage. When the price is equal to the price of intermediary agencies, people will give priority to renting a house from the developer (after all, a new house and an independent household). From here on, the rental and sale of the right to use will increase, people will continue to follow up. After all, this is always better than renting a house from an intermediary. When the rental and sales costs of the right to use are high to a certain value, people feel like they have been turned around and returned, because the rental and sales fees are getting higher and higher, it is better to buy a house directly than this, at this time, people begin to buy a house directly, and the house price will be able to rise again.

From another perspective, if house prices fall, the oversupply will fall. Of course, this is only the general situation. What we are facing now is a huge supply and a great deal of demand. However, people are not able to buy it. We are not able to buy it, but developers may not be willing to sell it at a lower price; at this time, the developers will directly turn to renting a house, and intermediary companies will also rent a house. In this way, the main form of housing transactions in the society will be renting a house, and the previous house sales will gradually fade out; imagine if the development chamber is willing to give up such a huge benefit. Of course not, then he will try his best to achieve the benefits of selling houses by renting a house.

In short, it is difficult to continue or fall sharply in the decades if you do not intervene in real estate prices. (I just want to rent a room. It's a cup of cake)