Crystal Ball-Monte Carlo Simulation Software

Crystal Ball is a gain tool for Microsoft Excel. It uses the Monte Carol simulation feature to help you analyze risk and uncertainty models. Features include sensitivity analysis, correlation analysis, Tornado analysis, precise control, and historical data distribution.
‧ Meaning of Simulation
When we use simulation, we use analysis models to simulate real-life systems. In the past, simulation software was too focused on complex mathematics, making it difficult to operate. The crystal ball worksheet risk analysis combines the worksheet presentation mode with automatic analysis simulation to clearly show various situations of model output caused by variable variation. If the simulation function is not added, the worksheet only reveals the single result and the most general situation at best. The most common method for worksheet simulation is the Monte Carlo method, which can randomly generate the model results of variables under different circumstances.

‧ Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation was proposed by the scholar Monte Carlo. It was initially used to analyze gambling games. Such as wheel, dice, and la. Monte Carlo can simulate random behavior in these gambling events. When you roll the dice, you know a total of one to six numbers may appear, but you do not know a rule. It is like when a business owner faces a problem, he may know the result and process caused by the problem, but cannot know the severity of each variable. (For example, interest rate, employee, stock price, inventory, and call rate)

Select the Variable Allocation type on the worksheet.
You can set the probability allocation for each uncertain variable. You can select the allocation type based on the environment where the variable is located. The allocation type is as follows:
You can add the toolbar to an Excel worksheet. Of course, you must know the allocation represented by these equations. With crystal ball 2000, the software automatically calculates equations for users. Crystal Ball 2000 can even use historical data to correct the allocation.
Simulation
Multiple situations are simulated by constantly sampling from the probability distribution of undetermined factors. Crystal Ball 2000 allows users to judge hundreds of different conditions in minutes.

‧ Stop guessing
When everyone needs to avoid risks, the cost is often extended due to invisible risks. Crystal Ball helps you analyze all possibilities and gives you the most information to select the best solution. Users can fully understand the risks each time they use crystal ball for simulation. "This software is the best software I have ever used. I can predict what will happen in the future in an uncertain state." -- Steven J. Campbell, general manager of Nelligan power
‧ Competitive Advantages
Through crystal ball analysis, you can know what competitors may do. Because Crystal Ball helps you analyze your risks, crystal ball is an important tool for success.
‧ Breaking the limitations of worksheets
Monte Carlo Simulation breaks the limit on the ability to analyze data in the past. When you can easily establish and analyze tens of thousands of potential results, why do you still need a single and possibly erroneous estimate! In addition, crystal ball means that you can analyze multiple situations by using a simple worksheet.
‧ Understand the problem
Through the sensitivity analysis of crystal ball, you can clearly understand the results caused by changes of different factors. You can focus on the problem and analyze the problem through the software.
‧ Quick decision
Smart decisions require a variety of presentation methods. You can use crystal ball to present professional graphics and reports to users, investors, and managers.
‧ Ease of use
The visualization and award-winning design of crystal ball makes it easy for business users to get started. The proprietary toolbar and menu allow crystal ball to be executed with the mouse and keyboard. Professional Excel users are even more aware that this software has added advanced features that were not available in the past.

 

Streamline Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in your spreadsheets with this integrated toolset
Crystal Ball 7 Standard Edition is the easiest way to perform Monte Carlo simulations in your own spreadsheets. crystal Ball automatically calculates thousands of different "what if" cases, saving the inputs and results of each calculation as individual scenarios. analysis of these scenarios reveals to you the range of possible outcomes, their probability of occurring, which input has the most effect on your model and where you should focus your efforts.
For six sigma applications, capabilities metrics calculated with the simulation results let you better integrate simulation into your methodology.
With crystal ball 7 you can:
Add scalable methods for collaborating
Get your work done faster. work as a team sharing standardized uncertainty distributions with publish and subscribe features.
Communicate and persuade
Share your findings. graphs, charts and reports let you vividly present and communicate the results of your analysis.
Get a credible picture of risk
The future holds uncertainty and risk and so shoshould your models. get the information you need from detailed statistics to summarized reports, to understand where to focus your efforts next.
Crystal Ball 7.3.1 is the most recent version of crystal ball. It has been developed to run on the Microsoft. NET Framework 2.0 or 3.0, technology from Microsoft for developing secure and advanced Windows applications.
To run Crystal Ball 7.3.1, you must have the following:
Microsoft Windows 2000 Professional with Service Pack 3, Windows XP Home edition with Service Pack 2, Windows XP Professional with Service Pack 2, or Windows Vista (tested on Windows Vista enterprise, business, home Premium, and Home Basic editions)
Microsoft Excel 2000,200 2 (XP), 2003, or 2007
Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.0 or later
Microsoft. NET Framework 2.0 (or 3.0 with Windows XP versions or Vista)
Personal Computer with Pentium-equivalent microprocessor (800 MHz or faster)
At least 512 MB of RAM
At least 88 MB of hard disk space. net Framework 2.0 and another 58 MB. net Framework 3.0 (if not already installed) and 91 MB for crystal ball 7.3.1. (Note: each of those two components requires approximately twice the given amount of disk space during installation .)
CD-ROM drive
Video graphics adapter and monitor with at least 1024x768 resolution
Adobe Acrobat Reader 6.0 or later
Note: For real options analysis toolkit, windows and Excel must be English versions and the Windows regional settings must be English.