IBM Automotive 2025 Outlook: The future of automotive business ecology under new technologies and consumption

(Alexander Scheidt, vice president of Automotive industry, IBM Global Enterprise Consulting Services)

In traditional business, mobile phones and cars are not the intersection of hardware, but in the intelligent connected business ecosystem has the possibility of full integration. IBM further believes that the new technology represented by cognitive computing will change the relationship between people and cars, and that the future is not just a vehicle, but a mobile data center and a cognitive center. In the future, smart cars will get the same technological niche as smartphones.

New technologies have led to the emergence of fresh consumption. People and the future of cars are no longer a one-way relationship, and people like today, smartphones and social networks are just as networked. In the future, not only people know cars, cars also "know" people, the identity of owners can roam to any car, "subscription mode" and "sharing mode" will greatly change the future of the car business ecosystem. This is the latest result of the IBM 2025 outlook for the automotive industry.

In the first half of 2015 and the first half of 2016, the IBM Business Value Research Institute conducted a "Car 2025" outlook survey two times, discussing with automotive industry executives and mainstream consumers over the past 2025 years on trends in the automotive industry. Among them, 2015 surveyed 175 automotive industry executives worldwide, and in 2016 surveyed 16,469 consumers in the 16 largest automotive markets worldwide. The results of two surveys show that the boundaries between people, cars, industries, and society are disappearing in the era of connected cars.

New technologies: Cognitive computing, data analytics and telematics

Alexander Scheidt, vice president of the automotive industry at IBM Global Enterprise Advisory services, has his own understanding of the future of cars: "In the future, people will live more in cars, and cars will be the extension of the living room or office." "Behind this is the six technologies that will be available in the future, and behind the six technologies is the cognitive computing, data analysis and vehicle networking technology platform.

According to the "IBM Automotive 2025" Outlook, the next six major automotive technologies that are of greatest interest to global automotive executives and mainstream consumers: self-healing, self-learning, self-configuration, self-integration, autonomous driving and self-social. Self-repair refers to the automobile itself analysis, prediction and automatic maintenance, self-learning refers to the automatic learning vehicle personal data, self-configuration refers to the automatic configuration of individual mobile preferences to the car, self-integration refers to the car network other intelligent devices, automatic information integration, self-social and autonomous driving refers to the automobile social and driving without human intervention. Among them, Chinese consumers are most interested in autonomous driving, self-social and self-repairing.

Of course, different automakers have different understandings of these six technologies, but an overall trend is highly autonomous future cars. As described in "A Brief History of mankind," the trend of human history: Things are always surprisingly moving towards a unified form of globalization. Cars are also exception, and the future of cars will be as global as today's smartphones, and the difference lies in value-added intelligent services, which will be an autonomous vehicle technology ecosystem driven by cognitive computing, data analytics and telematics.

"In the future, cars and people are the first to know each other and understand each other." Alexander said, "For example, if you want to buy a cup of coffee on your way to work, the car will recommend which coffee shop does not queue, whether there are discounted croissants, road conditions, etc., and then choose to take you to the coffee shop." ”

(Wang Tao, general manager, automotive industry, IBM Greater China, Global Corporate Advisory Services Division)

Wang Tao, general manager of Global corporate advisory services, IBM Greater China, said that IBM has more than 30 technology patents for precise positioning and analysis of mobile objects, providing real-time traffic conditions, environmental analysis, and location-based weather forecasts through data transmission, storage, and calculation, and analysis, On the basis of precise geographical positioning, the company provides the new business opportunities for the cross-border operation of automobile service providers. Currently, IBM is working closely with the world's leading vehicle manufacturers to implement the technology for mobile applications in many future vehicles, including autonomous driving. IBM also cooperates with OEMs such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Honda and Peugeot Citroen in connected cars, data analytics and the Internet of things.

It is IBM cognitive computing that gives infinite development and imagination space for all of this. At the Frankfurt Motor Show in September 2015, IBM launched an Internet of things solution for the automotive industry, based on Watson IoT cognitive IoT technology. The cognitive IoT combines IBM's AI algorithms and machine-learning technologies with existing big data and real-time data analysis capabilities to create a globally unified, autonomous, intelligent technology platform for future cars.

new consumption: Digital services and shared economy

And the technological ecology changes at the same time, there are consumers of consumption patterns. Especially under the influence of new modes of travel and shared economy, such as Uber, consumer attitudes, consumption patterns and consumption behaviors of consumers are undergoing great changes.

In terms of value-added digital services, information, entertainment, business, health, Butler, education and location services are among the top six digital car services that consumers are most interested in, according to the IBM Automotive 2025 Outlook. Information and health services (heart condition monitoring or blood pressure monitoring, etc.) are at the highest level of attention in all age groups in the emerging car market. In the mature car market, the highest level of attention is information, entertainment (music, video and social) and business services (retail payments, etc.).

Interestingly, location services and education services are the least focused among all surveyed consumers. For educational services, this may be due to the absence of educational software products for fragmented driving scenarios. For geolocation services, the survey shows that consumers do not really like random fragmented marketing, where cognitive computing can integrate fragmented geolocation services.

In the purchase of car will, 24% of the main car consumers over the age of 35 will reduce private car ownership in the next 10 years, the number of carpool travel will increase by 2.3 times times, in China the two figures are 17% and 1.1 times times. In other words, there are more consumers who are willing to turn to shared cars.

39% of respondents think car sharing is a very important option. As a follow-up, there are three vehicle ownership: Private owners, subscription models, and shared owners. A private owner is a single owner, and the subscription model refers to the car rental and carpool mode, while the shared owner refers to the way multiple people share a single vehicle ownership. Share owner is a new vehicle ownership method, including the responsibility and obligation of sharing insurance, maintenance, cost and so on.

The automobile business ecology must pay attention to and pay attention to these changes of consumption behavior. Especially with the increase of urban pollution in China, electric vehicles are bound to rise in the city, so the weekend and holidays to rent a non-electric car to travel farther away will become the norm. "The entire automotive industry chain will be re-tuned to seamlessly switch between multiple digital services and usage patterns around the consumer lifestyle. "Wang Tao said.

New Business Ecology: crowdsourcing innovation involving consumers and autonomous vehicles

Consumers and autonomous vehicles will have the opportunity to participate in the development and innovation of automobiles and services in a globally harmonized automotive intelligent technology platform based on cognitive computing, data analysis and telematics.

First, consumers will inevitably become part of the future development of automotive and automotive services. Similar to Xiaomi's user participation in the development of Xiaomi mobile phones and services, digital and social technologies attract consumers to participate directly in the innovation process of new automotive mobility solutions. 33% of the "IBM Automotive 2025" Respondents said they have been involved in the new product in other sectors of the opinion collection process.

In addition to traditional consumer research tools, many consumers also want to be more involved in the development of automotive services by submitting ideas online, participating in design games and competitions. Surprisingly, up to 37% of consumers surveyed said they were likely to allow their driving and mobile data to be used as design input sources.

The second is that autonomous vehicles will also be involved in the future development of automotive and automotive services. This is not in the "IBM Car 2025" survey results, but based on cognitive computing, the future of "autonomous" cars, not only have independent cognitive ability, but more importantly, all connected cognitive vehicles to form a collective self-thinking.

Cognitive computing is based on artificial intelligence algorithms, and artificial intelligence algorithms can evolve in sync with data. In short, the data for a one-year-old car is equivalent to that of 365 cars a day, so the "evolutionary process" of the year is compressed into one day. In addition, autonomous vehicles can not only perceive in-vehicle data, but also perceive vehicle peripheral data.

When hundreds of millions of autonomous vehicles based on cognitive computing run around the globe, the machine-cognitive networks and the autonomous machine thinking that are connected to each other will undoubtedly greatly reverse the development of automotive and automotive services, and even the re-invention and re-creation of the entire automotive business ecosystem.

Today's business and society are in an era of dramatic change, not only witnessing the massive popularity of Watson's cognitive computing and cognitive businesses, but also the collapse in revenue from "myth" companies like Gree and the 21-year-old Yahoo quest to be sold. "IBM Automotive 2025 Outlook" is a timely revelation of a future automotive business ecosystem, which will be a guide to the next major development opportunity in the social economy.

IBM Automotive Industry Reference cases included:

• Honda Motor. In March 2016, IBM announced that Honda Research and development will use Ibmwatson Internet of Things (IoT) technology to monitor and analyze data from more than 160 sensors in Formula One (F1) cars, including temperature, pressure and power levels, to share data directly in the cloud for real-time analysis. Drivers and staff can make real-time game decisions by optimizing vehicle performance and improving fuel efficiency through real-time data analysis.
• Ford Motor. In January 2016, Ford announced a partnership with IBM to jointly develop the "smart Mobile pilot Platform". The platform can help users find parking spaces and analyze real-time traffic to provide users with optimal travel options. Based on massive data analysis, the "smart Mobile pilot platform" helps users get a better travel experience.
• Daimler Corporation. In October 2014, Daimler's subsidiary, Moovel GmbH, chose to use the cloud infrastructure from IBM SoftLayer as the operating platform for its carpool mobile app Car2Go, providing better services to customers around the world, helping them find the cheapest or shortest route to travel. In addition, IBM's management services and DevOps services help Moovel GmbH speed up software development and updates.
• PSA Peugeot Citroen. PSA Peugeot Citroen announced its collaboration with IBM in May 2014 to provide customized services for connected vehicles using IBM Big Data and analytics and IBM MobileFirst solutions. The two sides combine massive amounts of data from vehicles, mobile phones, traffic lights, lights and other channels, and analyze them in real time.
• BMW Group. In March 2014, the BMW Group announced its choice to use IBM's big data and analytics technology to optimize its products and repair and maintenance activities, and predictive analytics technology could help BMW defect detection and repair before new cars are released. Analytical content includes product and development data, as well as warranty, diagnostic and repair information that is collected and evaluated worldwide, and IBM SPSS predictive analytics software helps to gather and analyze the details of data from multiple data sources and the latest workshop reports.
• Continental Group of Germany. IBM has continued to work with continental Germany, with recent collaborations including IBM Messagesight, IBM InfoSphere streams and IBM IoT for Automotive solution, Managing complex data flow and data analysis for the Continental Group E-Horizon (Ehorizon) solution, the E-Horizon solution uses electronic maps and crowdsourcing data to predict road conditions.
• IBM is also collaborating with Hughestelematics, Inc. (HTI), German Daimler Fleetboard GmbH, Germany Robert Bosch GmbH and other connected automotive service providers in a number of areas to promote IBM cognitive computing, Data analytics and Internet of things technology platform.

(Wen/Ningchuang)
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IBM Automotive 2025 Outlook: The future of automotive business ecology under new technologies and consumption