Learning point probability new share

 

Learning point probability new share

08:10:23
Author:
Source: Beijing News

In addition to praying for good luck, investors who enter the intensive new phase may also wish to learn some tips to improve the signing rate.

Probability

1

] Shanghai, Shanghai, and Shenzhen



Difference in signing Rate

5

Times

According to the distribution of the signing rate in the history of online purchase, the signing rate in Shanghai is similar to that in Shenzhen
5
Times. Statistics show that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Rate for online subscriptions is
80%
The probability is
0.2736%
To
2.3041%
, The value is
0.64%
Shenzhen City has
80%
The probability is
0.0374%
To
0.4109%
, The value is
0.1203%
. This is also one of the reasons for the preferential purchase of large-disk stocks, because the circulation of listed companies in Shanghai Stock Exchange is generally greater than that of Shenzhen stock market.

In addition, statistics show that the increase on the first day of the listing of Small-Board shares is greater than that on large-Board shares, so it is easier to get funds to chase the issue. As the number of excess subscriptions continues to increase, the signing rate will inevitably decrease. Therefore, in terms of probability, the signing rate of Small-Board shares is significantly lower than that of large-Board shares.

[Probability 2] large capital has a great opportunity to be scattered and skillful

For the probability of a person's signature, provides his own formula:

Individual signature Probability
=
Personal asset amount
/
Number of shares per sign ×
(
Total Fund for participating in the purchase of the number of issued shares
)

Because the number of each stock and the number of issued shares are constant, the total funds for participating in the purchase cannot be determined by the individual, the only way to increase the signing rate is to increase the amount of personal funds, this is also the reason why major brokers have launched the "new stock purchase alliance" business.

The above formula also shows that the individual's signing rate is irrelevant to the new stock issuance price.


, You can make a personal signing rate judgment before the new stock inquiry, take the lead in the purchase decision.

In terms of probability, it is best to concentrate the funds in one account when the maximum amount of funds purchased in a single account is lower than the limit, so that the maximum number of accounts is reached as much as possible. In this case, if funds are distributed to multiple accounts, the signing rate may be reduced. For example
A
The stock signing rate is
1%
, That is, continuous
100
A signature is required. However, if the funds are distributed across two accounts, the chance to sign in may be lost due to the "Wrong number.

If the funds exceed the subscription limit of a single account, investors should subscribe to the account. It is best to limit all accounts as much as possible, and there is no need to open multiple accounts blindly. If you are determining
1
Signatures and
50%
Probability
2
If you select the option in the signature, more investors may choose the option "the former". This means that a single account can be reached.

Tips for small fund purchase

The amount of funds is relatively small
,
For investors far below the purchase limit
,
The following purchase techniques can be used:
:

1
. Centralized fund purchase

Increase the amount of funds used to purchase new shares
:
Consolidate assets between accounts or increase the proportion of funds for short-term operations. Conditional investors can centralize the funds of multiple accounts into one account for purchase.
,
This improves the chances of signing. Generally, the funds of relatives and friends are concentrated for new stock purchase.
,
After the signature is signed, it is allocated in proportion. In this way, purchase not only requires an agreement between investors
,
It also needs to sign an agreement with the securities department to delegate New Shares
,
It can only be implemented on the premise of ensuring financial security.

2
. Loan New Shares

Because the loan needs to pay interest
,
Therefore
,
Investors must carefully consider the cost. Note the following:
:

(
1
) You must estimate that the new share purchase rate is higher than the loan rate.
;

(
2
) Low-interest loans
;

(
3
) Analyze the new stock issuance prospects
,
Select a more consistent period for new stock issuance
,
This method can be used.

3
. Select Financial Products

There are many ways to subscribe to New Shares
,
Each bank has a variety of products for purchasing new shares.
,
Investors need to determine the purchase method based on the amount of individual funds.

Investors with large capital volume can subscribe to new shares in different accounts
,
However, it is difficult for investors with small funds to sign in.
,
A more suitable method is to place limited funds on funds or financial products that purchase new shares.
,
In this way, a stable average benefit can be obtained.

Purchasing skills during continuous release

New Stock Issuance password set


,

Several new shares are often issued at the same time. For retail investors


,

Purchase one of the centralized funds


,

Ensuring a high signing rate is the primary choice. Therefore


,

You must select one of multiple new shares.



,
The specific stock selection principle is:
:

1
. Skip first and then

During the continuous centralized issuance of new shares during the frozen Period
,
Investors can avoid issuing new shares first.
,
Centralized funds are used to subscribe to new shares subsequently issued.

Statistics show
,
During the continuous centralized issuance of new shares during the frozen Period
,
The higher the backend purchase, the higher the signing rate.

2
. Small to big

When the number of the same release is large
,
Avoid small inventory
,
Purchase new shares with large online circulation and low industry price-earnings ratio
,
The signing rate is usually high.

Generally speaking
,
The signing rate of Large-disk shares is higher than that of small-disk shares
,
However, small-cap shares are generally higher than large-cap shares after they are listed. However, it should be noted that the issue is immediately followed by the large inventory
,
Especially small-disk stocks caught in the middle of two large-disk stocks
,
It is very likely that the cold door will pop up. Rud cotton Co., Ltd.
(002072 ),
Online fund-raising scale only
1.8144
Billion RMB
,
The signing rate is as high
0.57%
.

3
. Avoid hot and cold

When two or more new shares are online released at the same time
,
Unpopular stocks should be given priority. This will probably have a surprising effect. It is precisely because of the cold door
,
It is often left cold by institutional investors and general investors.
,
Therefore, the signing rate is usually high.
,
In addition, the post-market increase may be no less than the hot spot stocks released online on the same day.

4
. If you want to avoid optimization, it will be inferior.

The "inferior" mentioned here is not a poor enterprise. In general, the fundamentals at the initial stage of IPO are relatively good.
,
However, some enterprises are in an industry with poor development prospects or fierce internal competition.
,
Such as textile industry. Investors can give priority to new shares in the industry that are expected to increase below the market
,
This gives you a higher chance of signing.

5
. Low to high

Investors can give priority to the purchase of high issuance prices
,
Because the signing rate of high-priced new shares is relatively high. In addition, high-priced new shares are also conducive to large capital investors to make full use of the purchase funds.