Please multiply your estimated mission time with π.

Add by Zhj: There is no scientific basis for pi, and this is also mentioned by the author at the end of the article. However, the coefficient must be greater than 1, I generally use 2

please use π multiplied by your estimated time

Project estimation is a black magic, especially in game development. I have heard a mysterious argument from a mathematical logic biologist that multiplies their estimated time by Pi. According to practice, this gives them enough buffer time to deal with new requirements, tests, iterations, and other changes within the range.

I was deeply impressed by curiosity and arbitrariness, but I was really attracted to it. Now I am pleased to announce that I have been able to find a solid mathematical foundation for their cyclic estimation guesses.

Please listen to my explanation.

Someone--a designer, your leader, an executive producer, a friend, your mother--lets you do something. Think about it, jot down some notes, consider what you need, propose a plan and an estimated time.

But things have changed. Discover that your designer/producer/leader/friend/mother has overlooked something and has some ideas for further improvement during your work. Your horizons are getting bigger.

Of course, the progress is not very smooth. Your first attempt is a useful failure. Then you are in a hurry to start a second attempt and encounter a lot of problems that take some time to solve. You took an extra two days to consider the replacement method. In short, you go on an absolutely tortuous road to achieve the goal.

So how long did your journey take compared with your previous plans? The result is that the mathematical logic of the study is right ...

That's the case--no matter what time you think you're going to start, once you've gone through research, design, discussion, prototyping, failure, testing, demand generation, and other actions in the creation process, you'll undoubtedly be done with the Pi times you planned before.

Now maybe someone will question my mathematical accuracy and even question what I think is a definite conclusion. One might say that the correct multiplier is not real π--it should be 2, or √2, or e, or the golden ratio φ. However, I am sure no one would say that the multiplier would be less than one.

The important thing about your mathematical logic is that you have to admit it-when you start a project-you can't see the whole picture, you don't know what's going on, and you can barely get to know the content of the job in advance. Without a lot of planning and task analysis, it is impossible to change the situation, so don't take it too seriously. Instead, give yourself a proper cushion and try to work.

Oh, the to-do list you wrote last week? It's not a coincidence that you just finished one-third of the list. ;-)

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Please multiply your estimated task time by using π (turn)