The following strategy in pigsty (Game Theory tricks)

Source: Internet
Author: User


In Sun Tzu's War of war, there is a very incisive exposition: "Whoever is waiting for the enemy to fight in the battlefield, who is working in the battlefield to fight in the latter. ." However, the first step can certainly gain some advantages, but if you cannot turn this advantage into the driving force of the final victory, it will be passive and lead to opportunities for the other party. When the two boxers fight and fight, one often gives up one step, while the other is very aggressive. When they come up, they will make full use of their skills. What determines the final victory is often the side that strategically stores its own strength.


Let's take a look at the pig game to understand this point. The advantage strategy of pig is to wait for the pig to step on the board and then benefit from it. In other words, pig has a post-dynamic advantage in this game. Pig does not step on the board, and the loss of pig will not be more. When a pig does not step on, neither side has to eat it. When a pig step on a board, the pig can eat more.


However, in reality, the post-development strategy may not be the weak pig. There is a description in "Water Margin". In the home of Chai Jin, Hong Jiaotou will compete with Lin Chong. He made a lifetime of effort and shouted at Lin Chong to attack. Lin Chong stepped back a few steps, looked at the flaws of the Hong Jiaotou, and quickly kicked the Hong Jiaotou to the ground.


This is a vivid and vivid description of Houyi, which is actually the use of game intelligence based on the actual situation. Next we will illustrate this with a case in our life.


Barry, one of the authors of "strategic thinking", attended the May ball of Cambridge University (the formal dance of the University ). Part of the activity includes betting on a casino. Each person gets equivalent to 20 yuan of chips. By the end of the dance, the biggest winner will be a free coupon for the next year's dance. When preparing for the last round of gambling, it was just a coincidence that Barry had a chip equivalent to 700 yuan, taking the lead. The second is a girl with 300 yuan of chips. Other participants have been eliminated. Just before the last bet, the girl offered to share the admission ticket for the next year's dance, but Barry refused. How can he be satisfied with half of the results if he has such a big advantage?


To help you better understand the next strategic action, let's first briefly introduce the rules for round-robin. The winning or losing of a wheel bet depends on where the ball falls when the wheel turns. Generally, 0 ~ 36. There are 37 grids in total. If the ball falls at 0, the banker wins. The most common way to play a round bet is whether the bet ball falls into an even number or an odd number of grids (Black and red respectively ). The odds are one-to-one. For example, a one-dollar bet turns into two yuan, but the chance to win is only 18/37. In this case, even if the girl holds all her chips, it is impossible to hold the vouchers. Therefore, she is forced to choose a more risky method. She put all her chips on the ball in multiples of 3. In this way, the odds are two to one (if she wins, her 300 yuan will become 900 yuan), but the chance of winning is only 12/37. Now, her chips are placed on the desktop, indicating that she has already placed a bet and she cannot regret it.


So what should Barry do? Barry should follow the girl's practice and place the 300 yuan chip on the ball in multiples of 3. By doing so, we can ensure that he leads the other party 400 yuan and eventually wins the admission ticket: if they all lose this round, Barry will win at 400: 0; if they both win, barry will win at 1300: 900. The girl has no other opportunities. Even if she doesn't bet on this round, she will still lose, because Barry will leave this round like her and win.


Her only hope is that Barry bet first. What should Barry do if he places a black bet on 300 yuan first? She should have put her $300 in red. It is no good for her to bet her chips on black, because only Barry wins (and she will be runner-up, only 600 yuan, after Barry's 1000 yuan ). Barry's failure to win by herself (she will get 600 yuan, while Barry only has 400 yuan) is her only hope to defeat, which means she should place a bet in red.


In this round-robin story, the pioneers are at a disadvantage. Because the girl bet first, barry can choose a strategy to ensure victory. If Barry made a bet, the girl could choose a bet with the same chance of winning.


If you have an advantage strategy, no matter what your opponent chooses to do, it is better to follow this strategy than to use other strategies. If you take actions one after another and your opponent takes the lead, you should always choose your own advantage strategy. As we have already said, this is the best countermeasure for every opponent's action. Therefore, it is also the best countermeasure for the specific action he chooses.


In a game, it is not always a good thing to seize the lead and take the lead. Although this may affect the actions of other participants, it may expose your actions. The opponent can observe your choices and make their own decisions, and try to take advantage of this. At the same time, you cannot know what action your opponent will take. The second shot may put you in a more favorable strategic position.


In terms of the theory of classical war, the "Plan" is always a problem in the future.


Zeng guofan, a famous minister in the Qing Dynasty, believes that the status of both sides of the war, such as strength and weakness, victory and defeat, attack and defense, and the subject and object, can be converted to the opposite under certain conditions. He paid special attention to the changes in the relationship between the subject and the object, and often said to his subordinates: "The Wall of the phenol moles people, the hacker, and the attacker. The enemy attacked my waf. If I do what I do, it's anti-customer. I don't know what to do, but I often give priority to it. The so-called cause is not the same as that of others ."


In order to prevent the anti-customer from achieving the goal of focusing on the customer, Zeng guofan advocated static braking and Houyi. When the battle is approaching, the troops will not move, and the enemy will be tempted to send the troops first; when the siege is attacked, a double trench wall will be built to enclose it. "We are eager to prepare foreign aid first, so that we can stay away from this ". In this way, Zeng guofan often becomes passive and active, turning negative to favorable, and finally wins.


There have been many historical Houyi cases, * ** in the article "The Battle of the Chinese Revolutionary War", the Battle of Chu and Han Cheng, the battle of the new Han Kunyang, the Battle of Yuan Cao Guandu, the Battle of Wu Wei's Chibi, and the battle of Wu Shu's Yi Ling the war, the Battle of Qin and Jin Dynasties, and other famous examples.


In short, in the actual game, there are both preemptible and backward dominant strategies. Due to the ever-changing situation between the two sides, if the weak party sticks to the rules, it can only cause itself to miss the opportunity. Therefore. A real game player is definitely a master who captures the timing. He or she can choose whether to move first or backward based on the changes made by the participants.


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