The popularity curve of the 1151th phase technology

Objective

Recent news mentions Safari technology Preview 46 opens Service Worker by default, many front end mentions that PWA is about to usher in the spring. What new technologies are in front of the 2018? In addition, each technology has a life cycle, it will not come out for no reason, and will not be inexplicably disappeared, there must be historical reasons. It would be interesting to take stock of the technique of reviewing fire. Today morning reading article by @ Nguyen a peak share.

This article is recommended for sharing by @ Liu.

The text starts from here ~

Gartner, the world's largest IT consulting firm, has a "technology-trending Curve" model (Gartner Hype Cycle).

The model holds that the development of a technology has to go through five stages.

(1) Start-up period (innovation Trigger)

The technology was just born and was just a concept that was not available and could not assess business potential. The media has been reported to have aroused the interest of the outside world.

(2) Foam period (Peak of inflated expectations)

The technology has evolved, with individual successes, and some radical companies have started to follow suit. The media began to report, accompanied by a variety of irrational rendering, product visibility reached a peak.

(3) Trough period (trough of disillusionment)

The limitations and shortcomings of the technology were gradually exposed, and interest in it began to wane. Most of the products that are based on it are eliminated or failed by the market, and only those companies that have found early adopters have struggled to survive. The media's coverage of it has cooled and the outlook is unclear.

(4) Climbing period (Slope of Enlightenment)

The pros and cons of the technology are becoming more obvious, the details are becoming clearer, and more and more people are beginning to understand it. Based on the emergence of its second and third generation products, more businesses are trying to replicate successful usage patterns. The media re-recognized it, this time the industry has given a high degree of rational attention.

(5) Plateau period (Plateau of Productivity)

Through continuous development, the technology has slowly become the mainstream. Technical standards have been clearly defined, more convenient to use, market share more and more high, into the stable application stage. With its tools and best practices, it has evolved over a number of generations and has become very mature. The industry has a recognized and consistent assessment of it.

The details of the model can be seen in the larger Wikipedia map.

Every year, Gartner publishes its popular technical drawings. Here is a picture of last year's seven month.

Above, 4D printing in the "Start period", Blockchain in the "bubble period", augmented reality in the "trough period", virtual reality is in the climb period.

This week, after data analysis, a website called State.of.Dev was created to provide a popularity map of various technologies.

The following figure is a programming language.

In the image above, the Rust language is in the start-up phase, the Go language is in a bubble, the Ruby language is at a trough, the object-c is climbing, and PHP and Java are in plateau period.

The following figure is Web technology.

Above, WebAssembly is in the start-up period, WebRTC in the trough period, HTTPS is in the plateau period.

It's hard to predict what the future of a technology is, but its popularity is measurable (such as the increase in the number of social media mentions). Venture capital is highly correlated with popularity, and the more popular it is, the easier it is to get investment.

The user can use this chart to determine which stage of the technology is at which point it is popular. The simple rules of use are as follows.

"To fight for venture capital, choose the hottest technology, solve the real problem, choose the reliable technology." "

Simply put, the technology at the start-up period is very risky and highly uncertain, but once successful, the return may be high enough for startups; the technology at the plateau is very reliable, low risk, with mature solutions and supporting tools for the internal application of large companies and enterprises.

Conversely, if a technology in the plateau period, it means that it is very mature, people to what it can do and can not do, have already understood, there is no new expectations, the potential of technology itself is not enough, so use it can not invest, only to work.

Finally, recommended for you

"1144th phase" 2017 front-end Technology development Review

2018, what technology do you think can be worth studying.

About this article

Author: @ Ruan Yi Feng
Original: http://www.ruanyifeng.com/blog/2017/03/gartner-hype-cycle.html

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