The next ten years about the house and the renminbi, you must know these 9 points!

The next ten years about the house and the renminbi, you must know these 9 points!

The renminbi has gone through the big cycle of appreciation against the dollar, and has begun to enter the depreciation cycle; On the other hand, China's property market in the second half, housing prices have increased momentum of the city less. At this time, looking forward to the next 10 years, how should we configure assets?

In the next ten years, houses, dollars, renminbi and gold:

On July 1, the renminbi landed at its lowest price since December 2010, with a 6.6613:1 per cent dollar ratio. At the same time, the domestic property market also showed signs of weakness. As the M2 growth rate continues to decline, as well as hot City regulation policy has been introduced, the second half of the housing market or will become colder. It is indeed a historic moment. Wen | Jinlonghai (zl511045)

On the one hand, the renminbi has gone through the big cycle of appreciation against the dollar and started to enter the depreciation cycle; On the other hand, China's property market in the second half, housing prices have increased momentum of the city less. At this time, looking forward to the next 10 years, how should we configure assets?

In other words, where are the biggest opportunities in the 5 major categories of RMB, USD, gold, real estate and equity? My view is as follows:

1, the next 10 years, the biggest opportunity and the biggest risk, are in the equity investment. The "equity" is used here because it covers unlisted equity. In renminbi, dollars, gold and real estate, it's hard to find a hundreds of times-fold chance to make a profit in 10, but you can find it in equity investment. But this probability can be very small, one out of 10,000 is not, so, it is basically not suitable for ordinary people.

2, in the two-tier market to fry stocks, it is also possible to obtain more than the holding of renminbi, dollars, gold, property returns, especially after the implementation of the registration system. By then, stocks would be very cheap and the median price-to-earnings ratio of listed companies could drop to about One-third. In turn, you will know how expensive the current stock is, and how unsuitable it is for long-term ownership (with the exception of individual high-growth companies). But after the implementation of the registration system, retail investors will be more pressure to survive, because there are too many stocks, too much information, you can hardly judge. By the time, for most people, I am afraid to give money to the fund to take care of. Wen | Jinlonghai (zl511045)

3. Within the scope of our discussion, the renminbi may be the worst asset in the next 10 years, which is determined by the nature of the banknotes and is also determined by China's national conditions. In the last more than 30 years, China's money-issuing rate has averaged twice times the growth of wealth, and in the last 10 years, M2 growth is about 7% per cent faster than GDP. In other words, the average annual purchasing power of the renminbi has fallen by 10% in more than 30 years, down 7% per cent in recent years. The future is hard to control by less than 5% a year.

4. The dollar is opening a new round of interest rate hikes, so the dollar is stronger. But in the long run, as a note, it also has no gold strength. In the 340 's, the gold content of $1 was about 0.8887 grams, which is now about 0.02338 grams. In other words, gold has risen 38 times times against the dollar in the past seventy or eighty years, or the dollar is now just seventy or eighty years old, one of 38 points. Therefore, the long-term holding of the dollar is also more tragic.

5, in the past 10 years, the world's best assets, in fact, the real estate of China's big cities. They are denominated in renminbi, rising more than 10 times times, and some school districts are more than 20 times times. The renminbi has appreciated against the dollar and gold over the past 10 years. But it's hard to say in the next 10 years that if the renminbi continues to move more than 5% or 6% per cent faster than GDP, prices in big cities in China will still rise in the renminbi-denominated model. As a result, real estate in China's big cities is still worth more than the renminbi. But if it is denominated in dollars or gold, it's hard to say.

6. What if we choose between the US dollar and the real estate of China's big cities? I think in 3 years, China's real estate can still catch up or slightly run to win the dollar, and then it is very difficult to talk about. 10 years, maybe a tie, or a small dollar win. Wen | Jinlonghai (zl511045)?

7, 10 years down, Gold has a great chance to beat the dollar, 100% win over the renminbi, and it is possible to run to win real estate in China's big cities.

8, as for the relationship between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar, we should look at the economic development of the two countries. If China continues to make quick notes, the renminbi is likely to depreciate by 5%-7% a year against the dollar. If not to devalue, in the past few years a happy big devaluation.

9. Technological advances (such as VR, personal aircraft, unmanned driving technology and car sharing) will certainly eventually change the city's face and the value of its homes, but the next 10 years may not be enough to make disruptive changes. After 20 years, especially after 30, it's hard to say. By then, the value of the city centre will fall and the value of the school district room will be disrupted. 20-30 years later, it is hard to say whether gold is scarce.

The next ten years about the house and the renminbi, you must know these 9 points!