Business Operation: Customer lifetime value and new and old customer cost

This topic has not been talked about, but often encountered in the work (although we do not necessarily realize), I also asked some of the boss of the business, whether or not to calculate the lifetime value of their customers, most of the answer is not thought of, in the work of Yili, also often encounter new passenger ratio, the cost of new customers and other issues, But basically no one to investigate behind the most fundamental things;

Therefore, although I did not think very clearly, but to give a comment, I very much hope that someone to point out or discuss one or two;

The so-called customer lifetime value, that is, the average customer each one can bring the value of the company, its basic calculation method is

Annual customer purchase times, such as 10 times;
The amount of each purchase, for example, 100 yuan;
The company's profit margin (gross margin, because operating costs are marginal costs), we are optimistic, such as 20%;
The average customer purchase age, because we are mainly talking about e-commerce companies, the future is so unknowable, assuming for 3 years bar;

Then, the customer's lifetime value is 10x100x20%x3=600 yuan

Next, we can decompose, we assume that the company would like to make a profit on each customer is 300 yuan, and then, a variety of operating costs is 100 yuan (here, including rent ah, staff wages ah, water bills, etc.);

So calculate, can use 600-300-100=200 yuan, this 200 yuan is used for the cost of customer marketing;

Generally speaking, we usually think that the cost of developing a new customer is 6 times times the cost of getting the old customer to shop again (this is a reference data, not necessarily exactly accurate), then:

This customer 30 times in 3 years shopping, which as a new customer shopping 1 times, because the cost is the old customer shopping 1 times 6 times times; so need X6;

As an old customer he shopped 29 times;

Next

200 (Marketing expenses)/{(1x6) +29}=5.7 yuan, that is to say,5.7 yuan, is to guide old customers shopping 1 times the cost , 5.7x6=34.2 Yuan, this is the cost of developing a new customer;

So, is it more clear?

That's the standard case, suppose that in the case of this standard, there is another situation, that is, the company in order to develop, not to consider the initial profit (that is, the 300 net profit also put into marketing, marketing costs from 200 to 500), so that he can for the development of each new customer input of 86 yuan, To guide the old customer Shopping 1 times to invest 14 yuan;

The controversial point of return, if you want to consider very clearly, the ultimate mystery is here;
First of all, in fact, for most sites, the point of return to the site can contribute to your new users, because your users and the large return point station hundreds of thousands of users of the coincidence rate is really too low;
Second, we can put the return point of the station back, as the cost of maintaining the old customer, in our case, if the cost per 1 orders is less than 5.7 yuan (in the example is equal to or less than 5.7% of the rebate ratio), that is profitable; Of course, there may be problems with the duplication of old customer marketing costs, But after all, it can be calculated.

I have always suggested that e-commerce sites and the return point of cooperation, the early High Commission, focusing on the rapid bringing new customers, the latter reduced the Commission as a guide to the old customer channel, and its basic theoretical basis is also here.

Here to take a practical example, when the return point of the current station is 4%, an order of 100 yuan, is to guide the old customers shopping 1 times to pay 4 yuan, to 6 times times the theoretical calculation, when the new customer costs should be 4x6=24 yuan ... When it is understood, can you look at this number as a new customer cost when asked?
So, though when the commission fell so low, we are not willing to, but in fact there is a reason and inevitable, I knew 4 years ago there will be this day, but frankly speaking, this 4%, for the higher proportion of the media, it is not very reasonable; so I always thought that The future of the alliance should be to separate different types of media, which is a subject.

Suggested that the boss of E-commerce companies, the market bosses, according to their own situation, according to this method, the various aspects of their data calculation, very much hope to be able to share, to improve the algorithm.

Finally, the sentence is irrelevant to the subject, we assume that the company, if he has 200,000 customers, then his 3-year income is 200,000 x1000 yuan x3 year = 600 million yuan, gross margin is 120 million yuan, operating costs 20 million yuan, marketing costs 40 million yuan, net profit of 60 million yuan; already a good company.

And, so, if we do that, maybe some things are easier to understand, those big companies, can maintain, we do not say, 30, then, he can actually spend 342 yuan to bring a new customer-so they are willing to put on TV ads such a poor effect of advertising ah; let's say he's advertising big. , to a certain year there are 10 million customers, each customer purchase 1000 yuan a year, then this year is 10 billion of income.

This article has some logic is not easy to express, for the smooth expression, Jiaga schoolmate also plays certain contribution.