Red clothes of the "minority" (Game Theory tricks)

 

Tang zhengguan's 19th year (645), Tang Taizong, Li Shimin, set out in Luoyang and witnessed the election of Koryo. Gao yanshou and Gao huizhen, general of the Gaoli school, came to the battle with 0.15 million troops. The Tang Taizong design tempted them to the east and south 8 miles of the city of an, and the two sides began a decisive battle. Li Shimin chose a high-slope battle. At that time, there was a sudden change in the battlefield, and there were four clouds in the dark. As soon as the two sides received the battle, there was a clerk in the Tang Army, dressed in a dazzling white robe, holding a HALDE in his hand, rolling a bow in his waist, and shouting at him to kill the enemy. The enemy will be eclipsed, and we are about to fight against them. However, the formation has been overwhelmed by the personnel, and the soldiers have escaped. The Tang Army immediately broke into the army after the minor hacker.

 

After the battle, Li Shimin sent a person to the army and asked, "Who is the general who is at the beginning of the battle in white ?" Someone replied, "It's xue rengui ."

 

Li Shimin specially summoned Xue rengui and praised him for being a brave man. He gave him a horse and a silk of 40 horses and added him as the right leader. He was responsible for guarding the entrance to the north of chang'an Palace. Since then, Xue rengui has won several battles between the South and the North, and has set up the "three arrows to set the Tianshan Mountains" credit. It has been banned as general right Wei, Pingyang-gun Gong, and also serves as Anton du.

 

Xue rengui put on a distinctive white robe to kill the enemy arrays. His original intention may be to make his soldiers easy to recognize, but it has objectively caught attention and gained some attention. His white robe strategy is called a "minority strategy" in game theory ".

 

Let's assume that one night you have a party and there are many people in the room, so you have a good time. At this time, the house suddenly caught fire, the fire was very big, and it could not be put out for a moment. This house has two doors. You must choose one between them to escape from the room to save your life.

 

But the problem is that at this time, everyone is competing to escape like you, and they must also rush to escape from these two doors to the outside. If you choose a door that many people choose, you will be burned to death because of the crowded crowd. On the contrary, if you choose a door that few people choose, then you will escape the day of birth.

 

If you do not consider the ethical factors, how do you choose?

 

This is a game theory model proposed by Zhang Yicheng in 1997. It is called a minority game or a minority game. In fact, this model only changes the form of a bar game model: the judgment and selection of everyone directly affects everyone.

 

During his visit to China, the Nobel Economics Prize Winner lainhad Zez once used an example in his life to explain to reporters what game theory is, and mentioned a Minority Game. He said that there are two ways to go from A to B: one is m, the road is better, and the other is S, the road is not very good. Because there are many people driving, M is often very crowded on the main road. In contrast, s road with fewer people is smoother. If game theory is applied, drivers should consider how they choose and what others think.

 

As a matter of fact, in "Strategic Thinking", Avinash diksitebarri naerbov has studied the above issues in more detail. His research is like this: there are two main routes to choose from Berkeley to San Francisco. One is to drive through the bay bridge, and the other is to take the BART train. If you are driving your own car, it will take 20 minutes without traffic jam. But such a good thing rarely happens. The bridge has only four lanes and is easily congested. It is assumed that every additional 2000 vehicles per hour will delay every person on the road for 10 minutes. For example, it takes 30 minutes to reach the destination when there are only 2000 vehicles. If there are 4000 vehicles, the time needed will be extended to 40 minutes. On the other hand, the Bart Stops several stations and passengers have to walk to the station to wait for the bus. The total time on the road is nearly 40 minutes, but the train will never be delayed due to congestion.

 

If 10000 people are traveling from Berkeley to San Francisco during peak hours, everyone will choose the best route to shorten their travel time. Suppose only 2000 people are willing to drive across the Bay Bridge. Because there are few cars and the traffic is relatively smooth, the travel requests on this route will be shortened as long as 30 minutes. As a result, some of the 8000 people who choose to take the BART train think that changing to driving can save time and are willing to do so. On the contrary, if 8000 people choose to drive across the bay bridge, it takes 60 minutes for each person to arrive at the destination, and some of them are willing to change to the train because the train takes only 40 minutes.

 

In "Strategic Thinking", the author points out that the best way for everyone is to mark the price for "traffic time" and install toll stations on the bridge, in this way, the drivers who drive across the bay bridge will buy the passage time from the BART train and guide people to the optimal passage mode with "invisible hands. However, this is only a theoretical suggestion. In fact, it is often unable to be implemented for various practical reasons. In this case, we must find an optimal strategy based on individual needs. In fact, this policy is hidden from the above models.

 

This policy is to be a minority. Because resources are limited, only a few people in a society can fully enjoy them.

 

In our lives, we can also find that the minority, often different from the masses, can change their fate smoothly. The real few have always started to win when the conditions are not complete. They will try their best to create the conditions they need, rather than just like most people, when someone else sets off, he starts to wonder if the time is right.

 

The family was very poor when the American steel magnate was a child. One day, when he came home from school, he went through a construction site and saw a boss who was commanding to build a skyscraper. "How can I become a person like you when I grow up?" I have known this for a long time. What about second ?" "Buy a red dress and put it on !" Q: "Is this related to success ?" The man pointed to the front worker and said, "Yes! You see, they are all dressed in clear blue, so I don't know each other ." After that, he pointed to another worker and said, "You see that

It's because he is different from others in red. I also met him and found out his talent. I will arrange a job for him in a few days ."

 

In the above story, isn't it just the same as Xue rengui's white robe killing enemy lines? The so-called reason is necessary. Although there are things, we are exploring some successful strategies. We can often find some common rules from this. "minority strategy" is just one of them.

 

This story is recorded in LV's spring and autumn. During the Spring and Autumn Period, Sun Shu was very valued by Wang chuzhuang and made many honors for ZTE of Chu. However, as a father of Ling Yin, his life was very simple. Zhuang Wang gave it to him several times. He insisted that he would not.

 

Later, Sun Shu beat Jin and got seriously ill. Before his death, sun an, his son, said, "After my death, you will return to farming in the country. Never be an official. In case that the king has to reward you with something, there is a place between Chu and Yue called sleqiu. The place is remote and poor, and the place name is poor. The Chu People regard it as a ghost domain. The more people think it is not like this. You need the sleeping Hill that nobody wants ." Sun an didn't understand it at the time, because the word "sleeping" had an ugly meaning in ancient times in the Gushi County of Henan Province. Not only was the name unlucky, but it was also a thin desert, no one has ever asked for it for a long time. But he knew that his father had to make sense, so he nodded and agreed.

 

Soon sun Shu-chen died. Wang chuzhuang was so sad that he planned to ban sun an as a doctor, but sun an gave up his words in a hundred ways that he had to let him go back to his hometown. After Sun 'an went back, he had a hard time and even had nothing to do, so he had to rely on firewood. Later, Wang chuzhuang listened to umeng's persuasion and sent someone to invite sun an to prepare for the award. Sun an followed his father's life and was willing to go to the thin sand area where no one wanted him. Zhuang Wang had to give him the land of sleeping Hill.

 

Other honors and honors often compete for fertile land blockages, but sun Shuyun needs a thin land. Here, the minority strategy is used. This kind of strategy is a kind of "profit-taking" wisdom, which regards these unfavorable factors as profit. This is exactly what he has done. According to the regulations of the State of Chu, the two generations of land blockages will be continued. If any other hero wants it, change it to another hero. Because sleqiu is a poor thin land, there has been no one to seal there, so until the Han Dynasty, the son of more than a dozen generations of Sun Shu has this land, was able to live.

 

Because resources are limited. Without a minority strategy, the focus of competition for all people is on a limited number of things, so everyone is facing a very difficult situation. Only by looking for a different path and finding the "door" that most people have not noticed can they be able to survive and even get a higher benefit than the one who has been crowded on the zhuqiao.

 

In the middle of the 19th century, a gold mine was found in California. Many people think this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make a fortune, so they have traveled to California. The 17-year-old farmer yamel joined the huge gold rush team. Like a family, he had a great deal of experience and arrived in California.

 

The Gold Rush dream is beautiful. There are a lot of people doing this dream, and more people are flocking to it. At that time, there are gold miners everywhere, and gold is naturally getting harder and harder to find. Not only is gold difficult to find, but life is getting harder and harder. The local climate is dry and the water supply is scarce. Many unfortunate gold miners not only don't have a dream of wealth, but are buried here.

 

After a period of hard work, Mr. Hamel, like most people, was so thirsty that he was not found gold. One day, looking at a little bit of water in the water bag, listening to people around me complaining about water shortage, Amel suddenly wondered: the hope of Gold Rush is too slim, it is better to sell water. As a result, Hamel gave up his efforts to mine gold and turned the tools used to mine gold into tools used to dig water channels. From a distance, the river was introduced into the pool, and the water was filtered out with fine yarn to become a cool and delicious drinking water. Then the water is loaded into the bucket, and a pot of land in the valley is sold to the gold miner.

 

At that time, some people laughed at alymel and said that he had no ambition: "I 've been here to go to California with great hardships. I don't have to dig gold to make a fortune, but I have to do this kind of small business. Why come here ?" Hamel did not care about it. He continued to sell his water. We can sell almost zero-cost water. As a result, many gold miners return empty-handed, while Amel makes thousands of dollars in a short period of time by selling water, at that time, it was quite impressive and rich.

 

This story actually provides us with a way of thinking out of the prisoner's dilemma, that is, jumping out of the strange circle of people, cloud, and demand, and changing the traditional idea centered on our own needs, find another path.