2015 Air vents: 9 predictions about technology and the internet

2015 has come.

In the last few days of 2014, Penguin Smart has launched its hundred-page annual report, which offers entrepreneurial opportunities and challenges to 11 market segments in the New year.

Corporate, industry and institutional analysis and decision-making teams. Beyond concrete and meticulous cases, they want to see more macroscopic and far-sighted insights.

Prophecy is always a difficult and dangerous thing to do. At the beginning of the 2015, let's look at some of the interesting things that might happen in the future:

1, smartphone, not much fun

Samsung delivered a miserable answer in the smartphone market in 2014, and Apple's next-generation iphone is no longer stunning. The "innovative aftershocks" of the smartphone revolution, +app by Multi-Touch technology, have come to an end. In the next 1-2 years, smartphones will be hard to recreate the entire industry's innovation breakthrough, and may even be silent, evolving into a stable competition based on the current ecological pattern.

Products and markets will also be long-term orderly existence, but the surprise is difficult to find.

Don't expect a slightly curved screen to save the phone industry's innovation trap. Between the inch, hand and mobile phone interaction is likely to end. That is why Apple, such as Samsung, has to tread on wearable equipment at the risk of immature markets: a new breakthrough could be found on a piece of white paper.

2, all things interconnected, the door of the future open

At the latest CES conference, Samsung did not release a new generation of S6 handsets, but launched a variety of television, washing machines and electromagnetic ovens and other smart home products. The concept of Internet of things has been thrown away for many years, but it is far from the real user life scene-but the problem may be solved in a future time period.

In the long run, the expansion of intelligence from mobile phones to other areas of human life is a necessity. In the short term, several technology giants with research and ecological capabilities, including Samsung, Google, Apple and Microsoft, are also in dire need of finding new profit growth points beyond traditional digital and IT equipment to expand the ecological sphere. The cakes are all the same now, the new one must be bigger.

We can't imagine what the ultimate market size of all things is--just the smart home in its corner, imagination is far more than thousands of yuan in the mobile phone market. When we really want to find a longer-term future opportunity, the most imaginary space is often the hope. Televisions, airplanes, smartphones, and before these products appear, they only exist in the most romantic human brain.

3, O2O transformation of traditional industries, cold water will be, but will not extinguish the flames

In the catering, community services and other fields, the concept of O2O rapidly warming. Many restaurants and laundries are not even sure how O2O should work, and are being coerced into the 2.0 era.

But because of the lack of mature industry templates and easy to use intermediate platform, O2O the first wave of entrepreneurs, will soon face difficult challenges. This round of shuffle is not the resource integration or industry power structure changes, but the emerging market in the stone crossing the inevitable price.

But the likely positive expectation is that this wave of cold water will not extinguish the trend of the pan-service industry's evolution towards the internet and mobile Internet. More experience and lessons will accumulate in the future to further ripen the industry.

4, agriculture embraces the internet, further polarized

Traditional agriculture in the embrace of the Internet, the polarization of the trend, this trend will be further intensified in the future. Despite the increasing popularity of rural networks, the impact of the Internet on the traditional process of agricultural production remains extremely limited. The story of those who get market demand through the Internet and then customize it on demand is wonderful, but it is difficult to extend it to the wider countryside in the short term.

But in the agricultural products processing and the sale end, the Internet's intervention momentum and the effect is very obvious. The deep processing of agricultural products and the global deployment, supplemented by the progress of logistics and distribution, will further enhance the processing of agricultural products and brand profit space.

The main force to promote the consumption of agricultural products, white-collar workers, in the food safety crisis frequently, the high-end consumer market will be further expanded. And the reputation of the Internet and technology companies is not weaker than the traditional agricultural brands-even between confidence transparency and marketing capabilities, the former is more easily accepted by high-end consumer groups.

5, Industry 4.0, not technical problems, but population issues

A mass substitution of robots for manufacturing workers is emerging in the west, raising concerns about the global status of China's manufacturing industry. But in fact, no matter how good-looking the figures on paper, robots are still less artificial in terms of the flexibility and plasticity of manufacturing. Historically, the idea of technology for the elimination of workers has been raised in the first round of industrialization, but has not become a reality.

In the future, Industry 4.0 will have a strong advantage in the field of large-scale and simple manufacturing, but it cannot replace all human. The driving force behind the use of robots in China and the global manufacturing base is not a technological advance – but as the population's natural growth rate drops and the demographic dividend subsides, labor shortages will become a long-term problem.

This is the real chance for the robot.

6, Automobile Electric, will detonate more innovation

Electric cars are almost unanimously recognised, from government agencies to business investors to serious environmentalists. Global pressure to reduce emissions will lead to more policies in favour of electric cars being passed around the world, and policies are often the key to a fast-growing industry.

In the past 2014, despite Tesla's detonation of the industry, more traditional carmakers have begun to join, but the whole ecosystem of electric cars still has a lot to solve-but it's not a bad thing.

The huge potential demand of home electric vehicle consumption market and national policy impetus, will stimulate this industry to detonate many great innovations in the future, regarding the battery technology, the wireless charging technology, the solar technology and so on field, all will benefit from the electric vehicle development, then the Pu Hui to other professions.

For technology innovation companies, this is a great opportunity for them to get involved in a huge traditional market. In battery development, intelligent platform, core control and other fields, there is the possibility of cooperation with the traditional car companies. Even, it is not impossible to fully develop a whole car.

As opposed to the bright future of electric cars, the long road to driverless cars. Compared with the former, driverless cars will face severe laws and regulations and social ethical challenges. It is difficult to be widely accepted and popularized in the short term.

7, 3D Printing, the embarrassing fate of the panacea

In recent years, almost every science and technology industry forward-looking will mention 3D printing. From children's toys to airplanes, it's almost everywhere, omnipotent.

But the real impact of the technology on manufacturing and other industries may not be as big as it seems. The model manufacturing based on 3D printing is a more mature application scenario, which can replace the long period and expensive cost of the experimental product processing in the industrial research and development. In addition, in some creative industries, the exposure probability of 3D printing is also relatively high.

In the long run, unless there is a major breakthrough in the threshold of modeling, sample library, and material adaptability, 3D printing will continue to be a "link substitute" in the manufacturing industry to exert the advantages of flexible and rapid trial production, but it is difficult to form a real large-scale industrial ecology.

In the consumer sector, 3D printing also presents a "strange universality"-it can quickly enter many segments, but is not mainstream.

8, wearable equipment, stripping "mobile thinking"

Do not be confused by the frustration of Google glasses, wearable equipment in fact, the future is bright.

In addition to the hardship of the market incubation period, there is another major reason for the difficulties of wearable equipment in the past-many products want to transplant the smartphone functionality as much as possible-but users do not actually need it.

Future breakthroughs in this area will take place in areas where real mobile phones cannot meet demand-such as motion tracking, medical diagnosis, natural interactions in mobile settings, and dynamic collection of human ecological data. In design and use, future products will pay more attention to portability and "no operability"-that is, without human interaction.

If necessary, the screen will fade away from this product line.

9, cultural industry, further benefit from the network

Television dramas, book publishing, music and other fields, will be from the integration with the Internet to get more benefits. The wide spectrum and flattening of the network promotion will allow many literary and art minority works to get more exposure and online release opportunities, and for vertical minority culture, the Internet will help them find more companions.

With the further maturation of the copyright adaptation market, the traditional culture companies will get more huge extension benefits from the pan-entertainment network ecology.

Of course, internet companies will not give up the market entirely. In the future they will accelerate the layout of the cultural field, from the transmission side to the reverse infiltration of content production and cultural creativity.

Some "army" Giants will be born in the cultural industry.

The real future is the things that seem completely impossible today.

Only a prophet can see the future in its entirety. The 9 predictions above may not be all happening in our time and space.

But as a serious business analysis platform, Penguin Smart wants to find out more about real business opportunities and whirlpool traps in future fog through scientific analysis models and accurate data analysis. So in 2015, chi-minded will focus on the world of Business science and technology, and output more exclusive User behavior survey and in-depth business Research report, let us look forward to.