3-year central vote buffer monetary policy pressure

The issue rate is expected in 2.70%-3%⊙ Securities Lijie editor 陈羽 Yanggang recently, the first quarter of the data will be released, the data good-looking is the market consensus, the difference is only the data good-looking degree.　　The large amount of liquidity injected into the economy has led to bubbles in assets and is gradually putting pressure on prices.　　In fact, the resumption of last year's 1-year central vote, the rise in reserve requirements for the beginning of this year and the recent net withdrawal of open market operations have hinted at a step-by-step shift in monetary policy from excess to moderately loose, and the next step will be a return to normality, the gradual withdrawal of loose monetary policy In the current economic climate, "exit" is a sensitive topic, the central bank is currently in the 1-year issue rate hike and reserve rate increase will face the following two kinds of pressure: one, the current 1-year issue interest rate 1.93%, below 2.25% of the 1-year term deposit rate of 32BP. We do not think that the central bank will continue to use interest rate measures in the near future, which directly limits the 1-year issue interest rate increase space.　　After all, if the 1-year central-issue rate continues to close to 2.25%, market members ' expectations of higher interest rates will be further strained and interpreted as moderately loose monetary policy is about to really exit.　　Second, although the central bank has always thought that the increase in reserve ratio is a fine-tuning method, but the market interpretation and central bank understanding there is a big gap, especially in the current economic environment through the frequent increase in reserve ratio to return liquidity will appear very sensitive. At present, the low 1-year central issue interest rate directly affects the overall position of the yield curve, thus restricting the interest income of the bond of the bank's new and maturing funds.　　Take the 3-year central vote as an example, due to the 2007 large number of issues, the annual 3-year central ticket maturity of up to 1.3995 trillion yuan, the average coupon rate of 3.47%, significantly higher than the current 2.7%-2.8%-year financial bond yield level, banks face larger bond maturity and investment pressure. On the other hand, the Central bank's window on the amount of credit and the pace of delivery has undermined the bank's interest income on loans during the year. Thus, the main source of bank income-loan interest income and bond interest income are impaired, which will directly discourage the banks to seriously implement the relevant policies of enthusiasm, not conducive to the implementation of monetary policy.　　In fact, the relatively low bond yield level is a disguised incentive for banks to increase credit.　　In such cases, the 3-year central vote is undoubtedly the best option for resolving contradictions. First of all, the relationship between the 3-year central issue rate and the fixed deposit benchmark rate is lower than that of the 1-year central vote, but its effect on the overall yield curve is higher than the latter. In other words, the central bank's increase in the 3-year issue interest rate, in raising the overall yield curve level, raising the interest income of bank bonds (corresponding to increase the value of the bond relative to the loan, conducive to the implementation of credit policies), the impact on the expectations of market interest rates is relatively small. And from the past experience, the 3-year central vote issuance rate around 3%, 1-year central votesThe issue rate is at a wide range of 2%-3%.　　Secondly, the effect of the 3-year central vote withdrawal is similar to that of the reserve requirement ratio, but the psychological impact on the market (especially in other markets outside the bond market) is significantly smaller than the latter. With the latest 3-year bond yield of about 2.4% and 3-year financial debt of about 2.8%, the corresponding 3-year central-issue interest rate is 2.7%.　　However, not excluding the resumption of the 3-year vote with interest-rate guidance from the central bank, the central bank in the last 1-year period of the resumption of a short period of 1-year vote two-grade market yield from less than 1.3% to 1.76%. On the other hand, the issuance rate of the past 3-year central vote has only once been below 3% (2.97%), making the upward range of the 3-year central vote full of imagination.　　However, given the current special circumstances, it is expected that the recent 3-year central vote rate should be below 3%. Then, it is expected that after the 3-year central vote restart, the recent issue rate range will be between 2.7%-3%, the yield curve 3-5-year short-term impact is expected in 10-20bp, the 7-10-year short-term impact is expected to be within 10BP.