A hole with a path

Some people forget such an account, the first half of the acquisition of Ali spent 26 billion yuan, Tencent, Baidu in cash, convertibles also cost tens of billions of dollars, with BAT three big arms to engage in arms race, the Internet The competitive landscape seems to slowly become suspense. China's Internet companies are only divided into the following two categories: BAT and non-BAT, many companies have chosen to stand and find godfather body. BAT also tried their best to maintain its own territory through various means to expand the reach to all corners of the globe.

BAT really like the Three Kingdoms era, in a very long time to rule China's Internet arena? In fact, not necessarily.

First of all, the Internet is an innovation-driven business. The cycle of disruptive change is very short, always leaving the gap and the possibility of new giants emerging. Second, as the industry analyzed earlier, 360 (3) L "," L "and" Liu Dongdong "has been clumsy, especially in the field of culture, which may have become the first to break the window effect The hole.

Finally, the overseas market this variable, BAT almost all concentrated in the country, many overseas opportunities. Such signs have emerged, such as music as the Silicon Valley in the United States, Los Angeles to set up subsidiaries and start the European market, cheetah half of users from overseas.

Subvert BAT two premise

If galaxies are used to describe the Internet in China, BAT is a three-galaxy galaxy radiating. There are different strategies for the expansion of the three giant giants. Ali is widely scattered and appears to be messy, but paves the way for every crucial future field. Baidu is To search and open technology ecology as the core, share the pie play, all of the energy depends on the search "core" empowerment, is the input and output of I / O; Tencent core social relations chain and user base is the engine, through Second shareholders strategy, in exchange for access to capital and social networking site, connecting the various territory.

Some people say that under the networks weaved by the three giants, the Internet in China is almost at a disadvantage. Internet finance is still burning, and their dishes, P2P, crowdfunding and crowd-sourcing can all get in the way. , There is a certain color, to open a huge check recruit under the command, and the fickle mentality of Internet entrepreneurs, as long as enough money, even if the clock does not go to the United States is acceptable.

However, you have users and traffic, have enough money to open the way, there are still always want to break the "monopoly" fence child. The fact is that even with the three big mountains of BAT, second-tier potential stocks such as "3L" have come out and are initially equipped with the strength and ability to break the blockade.

In fact, we can see some unique genes from these companies because it is hard to get out of the game because of the powerful BAT, single applications and products without any play and system. What kind of companies that have this ability?

Personally think there are two prerequisites:

First, we must have the will to play independently, such as the United States Mission, the public comment, music, millet, 360, Jingdong, I believe every threshold has been trampled over, BAT want to recuperate in the bag, but people do not sell!

The second is to change the rules, change play, if you repeat the BAT road, with the same style of play, it is difficult to win. For example, the current "Internet" to transform the traditional industries, just to bring a vertical integration of the time window of the industry chain, music is to play such; another example BAT domestic play, you can go overseas, music and millet are "out Country "as a strategic focus.

Subvert BAT a hole

BAT has three cards in hand - users, traffic and money, three cards out of a few opponents to contend. However, if the play and the rules have changed, the set will not work anymore. Personally think there are two points: With the Internet to further penetrate to traditional industries, cross-border, integration and integration of the vertical industry chain will become a new competitive indicator; and with the community effect is more obvious, the user's strong viscosity And activity will form a "magnetic field", the user transfer costs increase, so that BAT would like to rely on horizontal "pit" routines will lapse, and this may just be the evolution of the Internet the next generation trend. The vertical integration of the industry chain in the future, have the opportunity to brew a new "giant."

Culture and entertainment have had such a clue, and may be the first pass to open the BAT monopoly. Taking LeTV as an example, the cards in its hands include LeTV, Super TV, Boxes, LeTV, etc. It covers the entire industrial chain of film and television production, distribution, distribution, broadcasting and derivatives. This vertical industrial chain integration of the ecological model has matured, "back" nearly 300 million yuan at the box office, breaking the record of domestic art films, just released the "old boy Raptors cross the river," the first day at the box office exceeded 25 million, "Little Times" figure remains to be found ......

And from the financial indicators, although the outside world is optimistic about the cost of music is full of doubts, and many people think that music as the lack of money. However, the announcement of the first half results released on July 15 shows that LeTV expects revenue for the interim period to reach 2.782 billion yuan to 3.158 billion yuan.

In fact, as long as LeTV insists on not being "acquired," BAT can not do that because a vertically long chain can mesh and cooperate with each other, ultimately resulting in a "synergy" and "value gain." In this sense, even if BAT takes over some aspect of the chain, it is very difficult to mobilize or inflict an essential impact on it.

When the grand Chen Tianqiao, also want to play this way, but also in turn placards, eat the giants, the result was an attempt, but now the time is ripe.

Why did you tear it apart from culture? There are two points worth mentioning: First, this industrial chain of culture, the chain is long, many involved enterprises, too old and in urgent need of upgrading, at the same time this market is the battleground of the military, the market capacity is large enough, if it is short Or easily flattened by the Internet industry may BAT through the simple acquisition and user traffic docking will be able to break, but the long chain and internal cycle, let BAT cut in from any one link, are not cheap; Second, cultural and creative industries fight what? Is the intellectual, creative, cultural atmosphere and heritage, once formed community and brand effect, it means "strong connection", BAT money, traffic, may also do nothing. So this is also the music as the representative of the 3L, the most likely to tear open the BAT hole.

Subvert BAT a path

Is BAT not seeing this trend? Not too. Do you not see Ali is throwing 26 billion yuan? From Culture China, China, Youku Tudou to the very beginning of Evergrande Football Club will find behind the back of a "cultural card", take a loose shelf of culture, but have not yet seen Ali signs of vertical integration This will pose a certain threat to the music industry. However, the vertical industry chain integration model has always been a "chemical reaction". It is an ecological concept and non-physical splicing. Therefore, it is easy to take a stand and work hard.

Looking at China's Internet industry, most of the Internet second-tier players such as Jingdong and 360 are doing horizontal integration and expansion in the "3L" camp. Although they also have the opportunity to claw their hands in the local area with BAT, Video, super TV and other hardware terminal layout, but rarely. The reason is that the music is taking the vertical integration of the industrial chain of the road, and more Jingdong 360 and more horizontal integration, stitching.

Therefore, the future of Internet opportunities must have occurred in the field of integration with traditional industries, and this integration process, the vertical chain integration will be the mainstream way, but also more and more convergence with the traditional industries "heavy" mode. The cultural arena will be the first to "snap" the BAT encirclement, and in a purely online light-asset model it may be only wishful thinking to fight against BAT unless you have the opportunity and the ability to nonlinearly subvert. So the next conclusion: Winning under the eyes of BAT must be vertical industry chain integration model. (This article starting titanium media)