Cass: Real estate is not fit for the next round of economic growth

Nanfang Daily Lu Tianling intern Shukin 2010 Real Estate control should adhere to the "stability" policy, at the same time should increase and improve market system construction. And the key point of the real estate tax management should be shifted from the trading link to the holding link.　　The Chinese real-estate Blue Book (2010), released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences yesterday, described the next housing policy, and said real estate was no longer a pillar industry for the next round of China's economic growth. The Blue Book points out that in 2009 the price of commercial housing increased by 23.6%, and the price of commercial housing increased by 25.1%, far exceeding the growth rate of 9.8% per capita disposable income of urban residents.　　The reason why the price, the land price rises sharply, can say with the real estate regulation measure not in place in time, the real estate control means cannot point to have the very big relation, the regulation way and means urgently needs to innovate. The Blue Book pointed out that 2009 China's real estate market experienced a downturn, recovery, hot development process, to achieve a V-shaped reversal, for the industry's unexpected. The 2010 is the key year for China's economy to get out of the financial crisis and revive the rapid growth.　　2010 Real Estate policy should adhere to the "stability" policy orientation, at the same time should increase and improve market system construction. Hot cities in the second half of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Management Institute of Land and Real estate research director Li Jingguo said that 2010 real estate market development investment will continue to improve over the last year, to cover the plate reluctant to increase the blow.　　At the same time, under the influence of regulatory policy, the second half of last year, the expansion of real estate development enterprises will shrink, this year the housing prices will appear consolidation trend, and growth slowed.　　The recent discussion of house prices, of course, to talk about the new country 10 regulation effect, yesterday, many experts in the interview, said that the new country, 10 after the introduction, to curb the rapid growth of house prices will certainly have a certain effect. "It should be said that the current policy, if in place, is effective for the palliative."　　"said Pan, director of the Institute of Urban Development and Environment of Cass. Li Jingguo also said he thought: "Compared with the 2007 fourth quarter two suite policy, 2010 new Country 10 more stringent." I personally think it will be effective. "Chao Song, director of land Surveying and Planning Institute of China's Ministry of Lands and Resources, said in an interview after the meeting that the background of this regulation is different from that in the end of 2008."　　In her view, the key to this policy is in the financial credit, one is to reduce liquidity, the second is to increase effective supply, curb investment speculation. "I think these aspects of the proposed, the intensity is still relatively large." Chao Song told reporters, will certainly have effect. "I think the central government has shown a lot of determination." If the policy were to rise as before, it might affect the credibility of the people's decision-making in the central government. "Wang Lin, deputy director of the Policy Research center of the National Housing and Construction department, looks at whether the price reduction should mainly be seen in the enterprise, he believes, under such a severe crackdown,After some real estate enterprise's capital is tight, will certainly reduce the house price to spend "the cold winter".　　This round of property market regulation is a long-term Wang Huilin said that regulation is in order to sustainable development, regulation and control is to establish a long-term market stability and improve the market, regulation of the determination of a large, the regulation to have a long-term preparation.　　Wang Lin said that although the real estate market has a temporary stagnation, does not mean that the annual market does not develop, but the development to understand, not like the 2009, according to that standard no way than, to measure the development of the market mainly in sales. Li Jingguo told reporters, "The new country 10 should become a long-term policy, rather than a short-term measure." He further said, "China's construction land is still relatively scarce resources." If we take it as a short-term measure, once this measure is stopped, it will be possible to replicate the market situation in the six months after 2009 years. "In September 2007, the central bank asked to buy two-suite down payment must not be less than 40%, lending rate is not lower than the central bank benchmark interest rate of 1.1 times times, the short-term effect is more significant."　　After the financial crisis hit, the central government to protect GDP growth, rapid callback policy, failed to receive the expected regulatory effect, the market also with a round of frenzied rise in response. "Regulation is to establish a long-term market stability mechanism and improve the market." So this time the determination is big, and must have the long-term preparation.　　Wang Huilin said the government would not relax if the regulatory effect did not come out. Curb speculation should attach importance to the holding link "now the policy can not continue, can not guarantee the healthy development of the real estate market, this is more critical." "In fact, it is time to shift from a bundled land finance to a holding property tax," he added.　　The Blue Book also points out that at present, China's real estate control mode is not mature, some policies not only can not play a role, but also the opposite effect, such as the real estate transactions in the tax is to increase the cost of curbing speculation, but because the seller passed it to the price, and thus become a big factor in raising prices. For the imposition of a holding property tax, Pan recommends that the stock be taxed to protect the benefit of the increase. "Real estate tax is the combination of stock and storage price, the stock is not wasting our space, deposit price is a redistribution of income, so as to ensure sustainable real estate regulation." "With the same view, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, land and real estate research director Li Jingguo, he said, in order to ensure the healthy development of real estate, the real estate tax management mechanism should be reformed," the focus of tax management from the transaction link to the holding link to simplify the transaction link tax.　　"Li Jingguo further suggested that the circulation link tax is advantageous to restrain the real estate investment speculative demand, but is not advantageous to the second-hand housing market development, but the holding link regulation is advantageous to the containment monopoly and the speculation behavior." Relying on real estate, the risk of economic prosperity will be very big Blue Book also pointed out that the real estate industry as the next round of China's economic growth pillar industry is not appropriate. The Real EstateAs a pillar industry, as the real estate industry chain long, the impact of a wide range, so the real estate market prosperity, economic prosperity, real estate bubble expansion will stimulate the economy rising.　　Because of this, when the housing bubble collapses, its booming industries will be hit hard at this time, and the macro-economic impact will be severe.　　Therefore, if the macro-economy is sustained on the basis of real estate, it means that there is a huge risk, because the real estate market is a bubble-prone market, and often difficult to detect.　　The Blue Book that today, China's real estate market has been developed for more than 10 years, real estate prices have risen to a certain high, if the next round of economic growth is still relying on the prosperity of real estate, then the Chinese economy must be based on a precarious basis. Blue Book Speed Reading Hong Kong people Shenzhen property prices for Shenzhen high prices, the Blue Book also analyzed its reasons.　　Reporters noted that, unlike other cities, in the promotion of Shenzhen high prices of the crowd, there are a large part of Hong Kong, Macao residents and expatriates.　　The Blue Book pointed out that with the acceleration of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong integration, the mainland home ownership of Shenzhen is the mainstream, the total size of home ownership has increased, the work of home ownership as the main, investment in home innovation. According to the report of the 2008 survey on the situation and intention of Hong Kong residents living in the mainland, published by the Hong Kong Planning Department, the Hong Kong people aged 18 and above residing in the mainland of China showed a rapid growth rate of 50% per cent on average every two years. Among them, Shenzhen residents, up to 31%.　　The number of Hong Kong residents living in the mainland is growing, with the highest proportion of planned migrants.　　Although 2008 was affected by the mainland property market adjustment and the "outside order" policy, Hong Kong residents in mainland China have fallen in size, but Shenzhen property is about 55 million-57 million, which still accounts for 36% of the total number of home ownership in the mainland, far above the level of home ownership in Shanghai and Guangzhou. In 2009, as the mainland property market warmed up, the "restraining order" policy was lifted, Hong Kong people's mainland home ownership rate rebounded rapidly, the number of home ownership was about 22,300 to 23,300, and the investment amounted to 22.4 billion yuan, which grew by 46% and 85% respectively, up from 2008, to an all-time high.　　Among them, Shenzhen property about 8300-8500 units, accounting for the total number of mainland home ownership 37%.　　The Blue Book pointed out that with the rapid pace of Shenzhen-Hong Kong integration, the "Hong Kong-Shenzhen Metropolitan Circle" gradually formed, the people north of Shenzhen working life has become a stable situation, home ownership potential is huge, will help push the total housing consumption in Shenzhen climbed.　　2010 decline in the supply of commercial housing although many experts have been stressed that the first to curb housing prices to expand supply, but yesterday, the Blue Book forecast, due to the completion of the 2009 Land acquisition area and the development of the land area has been reduced, which may have a certain impact on the supply of commercial housing in the next 1-2 The Blue Book considered that 2009 completed land acquisition area of 320 million square meters, is the lowest since 2003, Year-on-year growth is the lowest since 1997. 230 million square meters of land area developed in 2009, with a negative growth of 19.9% per cent, the lowest since 1997.　　This situation, it is possible for the next 1-2 years the supply of commercial housing has a certain impact. The Blue Book also pointed out that the current Chinese real estate market order is still more chaotic, urgent to be remediation. One is to cover the plate reluctant, land idle phenomenon is more serious, resulting in tight supply and demand, so that prices rise and rapid increase, triggering some urban market panic began to buy phenomenon. Second, investment and speculative demand increased, exacerbated the market supply and demand contradictions.　　In the second half of last year, with rising housing prices, hot cities and hot spots of investment demand and speculative demand increased, exacerbated the market supply and demand tension, promote the rise in housing prices, crowding out part of the autonomy of demand.　　Beijing land Price this year before the Blue Book forecast, 2010 Beijing Real estate market will be stable development, the land price in the smooth realization of the first Yang after the situation, the protection of housing will increase supply. The total land supply in Beijing in 2010 will be slightly higher than the 2009 level. 2010 Beijing has a supply of land not less than 6000 hectares, of which no less than 4500 hectares of housing.　　The planned scale of land for the year 2010 will exceed 3000 hectares, above the 2009 land level. The Blue Book notes that changes in the macro environment (such as the need to suppress investment in fixed assets) do not preclude the possibility of controlling the size of land supply. Beijing will continue to increase the supply of residential land, especially the size of affordable housing will be greatly increased.