March new loans expected to shrink 500 billion or 600 billion

Guoju this week, the central bank is about to release March credit data. According to the latest forecasts, March new loans may be slightly lower than February, in 500 billion ~6000 billion.　　　　A continued fall in lending is expected to further reduce austerity expectations.　　March new loans are estimated to be 500 billion to 600 billion yuan in February Commercial Bank new loans for 700.1 billion yuan, compared with January 1.39 trillion yuan cut by half. "Due to the quarter-season limit is still more stringent, March loans should be reduced, possibly in 600 billion yuan."　　"A joint-stock Bank funds department people said. The report, issued by Goldman Sachs Gao, predicts that the renminbi loans issued in March would be around 600 billion yuan.　　With loans falling, the year-on-year increase in renminbi lending is expected to fall from 27.2% in February to 22.1%.　　Day congenial Gu thinks, March loan will get certain control, expect new loan 510 billion yuan, the chain less increase and will be lower than market expectations. "In the context of management's control of credit, restrictions on new projects, and constraints on local financing platforms, the likelihood of a surge in loans in March is slim, but the rigid demand-backed loans will not fall sharply."　　"said Li Zhiping, an analyst at Shanghai Pudong Development Bank. If March new loans in 500 billion ~6000 billion, the first quarter of new loans will reach 2.6 trillion ~ 2.7 trillion yuan, accounting for the annual credit target of 7.5 trillion yuan 34.6%~36%.　　If the regulator requests a four-quarter credit-3:3:2:2 ratio, this will be slightly higher than that, but also within acceptable limits. The continued fall in lending means that controls, such as window guidance from the beginning of the year, are gradually showing effect, making it less necessary to further tighten.　　Analysts believe that April is expected to usher in a policy vacuum period. It is congenial to note that the credit crunch in March was substantially tighter, with corporate lending particularly strained, indicating that the real effect of window guidance is more pronounced than the data.　　　　In view of the current domestic economy has not entered the overheated stage, April or the policy observation period, is not a rate hike, such as the time window. March data or did not support austerity and was affected by a sharp decline in loan growth, March M1 and M2 are expected to fall sharply year-on-year.　　Goldman Sachs Gao predicts that the M2 growth rate could fall to 21.5% per cent, while the days of M2 and M1 year-on-year growth will be 22.5% and 30% respectively, down from February to 5 and 3% respectively, and the trend towards a neutral return of money supply will be further established.　　In addition, other economic data for March may not support tighter policy. In the current forecast, March CPI will also be slightly lower than February, and the economic growth rate in the first quarter may reach more than 11%, the year's high, followed by a fall. In addition, the newly released data on imports and exports in March showed the first deficit in 6 years. In this situation, the central bank in April to introduce interest rate policy orThe likelihood of further austerity measures is falling.　　A 3-year central bank vote in open market operations last week had tightened expectations for the market, but when the weekly circulation of just 15 billion yuan and the weekly distribution showed no further increase in the central bank's return, the tightening was expected to ease as the 3-year vote was introduced. It is now widely believed that the increase in the 3-year issue of the central vote, which shows the bank's desire to continue to play the role of open market operations, the need to use reserve ratio is declining. In addition, the central bank's move also shows a desire to withdraw funds by increasing the means of withdrawal rather than raising the interest rate, meaning the central bank remains cautious about raising interest rates.