1. The novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation is similar to the SARS timeline, but the impact affects the whole world
2. China's retail industry will recover slowly, but there will be no rapid recovery of the "V" shape
3. The epidemic has a great impact on social psychology and lifestyle
Although the inflection point of
novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has not yet appeared, in most parts of China, the epidemic has entered a relatively stable and controllable stage. However, the recent outbreak of the epidemic in Italy, Japan, South Korea and Iran may cause damage to the global economy. Analysts at JP Morgan Chase expect the growth rate of the global economy to decline to 1% in the first quarter, a new low since the 2008 financial crisis.
As the second largest economy in the world, China is currently in the stage of rapid resumption of work, in which the resumption rate of Zhejiang has reached 90%, and the resumption rate of key foreign-funded enterprises in Shanghai, Hunan and other places has also exceeded 80%. But the impact of delayed start is still obvious.
Due to the slow recovery of factory operations and the decline in market demand, Apple, regarded as a global supply chain leader, recently lowered its first-quarter sales expectations. German sports giant Adidas, whose business activity declined by 85% during the epidemic, also issued a profit warning to investors. In a hurry, Jaguar Land Rover, the UK's largest car company, flew the auto parts back to the UK to complete the processing.
At the same time, the "Economist" think tank lowered the GDP growth expectations of Asian countries, especially Vietnam and South Korea, by nearly 0.5 percentage points. "This epidemic has a great impact on the countries around China that are in the same industrial chain," explained Wang Dan, an economist in the Economist think tank China. Wang Dan believes that compared with SARS, this epidemic has a much greater economic impact than the small-scale isolation during SARS due to the large-scale isolation policy.
But similar to the rapid rebound in consumption after the end of SARS, she is more optimistic about the speed of the market rebound after the epidemic is controlled. "The longer the epidemic is delayed, the more intense the stimulus policy will be. Based on the expectations of the Chinese government's policy response, the Chinese market will return to operation much faster than other disasters." Wang Dan said. "The political goal of doubling the economy in 2020 still needs to be achieved, which is a hard constraint of policy."
At present, the country has issued a series of economic stimulus policies. Before January 17 this year, the central bank allocated 600 billion yuan to the country, and invested 4 billion yuan in Wuhan during the Spring Festival to open a green channel for liquidation and ensure that anti-epidemic funds arrive in time. For the relevant enterprises supporting anti-epidemic work, the state provides tax reduction and exemption policies, and the industries affected by the epidemic that are more affected by the epidemic will have their longest loss-carrying period in 2020 extended from 5 to 8 years. For small and micro enterprises, the State Council introduced preferential policies such as exemption from social security for 5 months.
According to Euromonitor's analysis, the impact of the epidemic on the
retail market will not spread too much, and its impact on the economy may be mainly concentrated in the first quarter, and there will be a rebound in the second quarter and after.
The retail industry is widespread and will return to normal in a few months
During the epidemic, the tertiary industry, which is closely related to people's lives, was hit hard. Consulting organization AT Kearney predicts that the epidemic will cause economic losses of 1.5-3 trillion yuan to the retail catering industry, of which catering services, entertainment, tourism and daily retail and apparel retail sub-sectors will be relatively affected, while sanitary products Consumer health products, packaged foods, and electronic consumption are likely to grow against the trend in the epidemic.
According to the statistics of CICC, after the outbreak, the sales of multinational companies such as apparel and restaurants that value offline retail have fallen by as much as 8% to 10%. At present, these rigid demand categories will recover soon after the isolation policy is lifted.
Although China's consumption power cannot be underestimated, it will still have a huge impact on the retail sector that needs to be tried on and touched frequently. Chen Ke, Roland Berger's global senior partner and vice president of Greater China, pointed out in an analysis that the apparel industry, which is prone to "relieving panic", is expected to show "restorative growth" after the outbreak. Chen Ke believes that compared with SARS, due to the more mature e-commerce industry during the current epidemic period, it can play a compensation role in satisfying consumption scenarios, and the possibility of outbreak growth after the epidemic is less.
AgencyChina's director of market research, Michael Norris, also believes that after the epidemic is under control, there will not be a "V" shaped rapid recovery in the retail consumer market. "With the warming of the weather, the marketing activities of major e-commerce shopping festivals and consumption will gradually return to normal in May and June," Norris said.
The upheaval caused by consumer psychology
It is worth noting that the subtle changes in people's consumption psychology during the epidemic.
Norris believes that the outbreak has severely damaged consumer confidence. "Consumer confidence usually reaches its highest point around the Spring Festival, but this year has been completely hit. As the physical
retail industry is basically at a standstill, travel is restricted, and industries such as luxury goods, fashion, sportswear, automobiles and tourism continue to be affected. Norris also believes that during home isolation, people's homes have the functions of life, fitness, office, and "a sanctuary from uncertainty", which all have varying degrees of impact on the consumption concept.
After each catastrophic event, it will produce the effect of market reshuffle. Zang Yinyin, a researcher and doctoral advisor at the School of Psychology and Cognitive Sciences at Peking University, believes that due to the severe impact on SMEs in this epidemic, the consumer confidence of affected individuals and families will be more impacted, and there will be more Many consumers have changed their perception of advanced consumption. "People's strong desire to shop may be 'overcompensated' after the epidemic is over," Zang Yinyin explained. "A similar situation, the SARS epidemic in 2003, was reflected in the concentrated outbreak of hotels, restaurants, tourism and other industries."
“But for our country, the group ’s resilience, or the group ’s resilience and resilience (collective resilience) is very strong. Although the economy is generally slowing down, it may quickly return to normal levels after the epidemic ends,” she said. . "
This novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic will also make people start to pay attention to their own immune system and pay attention to the maintenance of daily physical health. Therefore, it may stimulate some young people to start paying more attention to health and spiritual life, especially to health consumption, not only for I am also an elderly person at home. At the same time, people will soon return to their normal lifestyles after the epidemic. Perhaps this is an opportunity for a healthy food delivery catering company. "
Many companies also quickly adjust their marketing strategies to meet changes in consumer mentality. According to the analysis of Bain and Alibaba Tmall, the marketing method of FMCG has become more flexible, and the marketing channel has paid more attention to online. Many brands have adjusted the content of
novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic and increased their games, education, Traffic investment in the health and other sectors to consolidate consumer loyalty.
Compared to SARS 17 years ago, the situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is more complicated
Compared with SARS seventeen years ago, it is impossible to generalize how much impact China's economy is currently in the adjustment period. In addition, the most severely affected industries during the SARS period were catering, retail, and manufacturing. In contrast,
novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic had a greater impact on consumption and tourism.
ING Greater China economist Iris Pang believes that in the era of globalization and social media, the global
novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic has been compared with regional epidemics or major disasters such as SARS and the Japanese tsunami. This time, public opinion has exerted greater influence. "The outbreak also caused Western society to discriminate against Asian faces, so tourism consumption will not rebound quickly in the short term," Pang said. She also believes that after the outbreak, due to the double blows of the parade and the outbreak, the Hong Kong retail market will recover more slowly after the outbreak ends.
Retail opportunities, the emergence of unmanned retail
The SARS epidemic has spurred the development of Taobao, JD.com and SF Express. Seventeen years later, the retail market of
novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic broke out. E-commerce and rapid logistics have also achieved breakthroughs as consumption scenarios change. AT Kearney analysis pointed out that after the epidemic is expected, e-commerce's total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to further increase from the current 21% to 24% or higher.
It is worth noting that the unmanned retail, which once became an investment outlet, but has never been tepid, has demonstrated great commercial value during the epidemic. Including unmanned supermarkets, unmanned distribution, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, during the epidemic, all personnel were effectively avoided. The stock prices of unmanned retail companies including New World, New Cape, and Kelan Software have all risen to varying degrees.
ING's Pang believes that the emergence of zero-contact express delivery during the outbreak will continue to work after the outbreak is brought under control. And Dan Wang of the "Economist" think tank also pointed out that in the future there will be more physical stores and technology companies, logistics companies and e-commerce companies. "In the epidemic, retail relied more on scattered points of sale in the community than on remote logistics. Therefore, there will be new breakthroughs in the community-based retail service industry based on communities.
Retail recovery is also an opportunity for change
The sudden outbreak will bring about changes to the retail landscape more obviously than those brought about by the SARS outbreak and major disasters such as the Fukushima nuclear leak in Japan. It is expected that after the end of the epidemic, consumers' demand for consumer goods such as health will increase, and retailers also need to effectively carry out omni-channel layout, improve supply chain flexibility, and find marketing selling points that can meet the emotional needs of consumers. The greatest enlightenment from the outbreak to retailers.
