Peer-to-peer Network loan: From barges to Warring States potence

2013, with the increasingly hot internet finance, peer-to-peer Network loan industry has also appeared more and more entrepreneurs, especially the original small loans, pawn, guarantee, private lending and other traditional microfinance institutions more and more began to invest or ready to put into Peer-to-peer network loans. However, it is really too late to enter the industry. The author in May 2013 has written that Peer-to-peer network loan industry will be the overall situation. With the VC to enter the field, the industry will be from the barges stage of the transition to the Warring States potence stage. Fruit not out of the author of the material, January 9, 2014, Zhi-Xin investors loan 130 million dollars just confirms my judgment.

The next few months, VC very likely to the existing Peer-to-peer network loan industry comprehensive strength of the top 10 top 20 investment, the average amount of investment may be around 20 million U.S. dollars. These investment leaders will be in the following two or three years of bloody slaughter, coupled with some of the traditional large and medium-sized financial institutions involved in the regiment, the following three years of "warring states Potence" phase will be very exciting.

Not to get the investment of the company is a shoo-in, brutal market competition will be the fittest, three years later, there will be only 35 winners, closed or merged will be most. Burn tens of millions of or even a few billion, but the likelihood of a big probability still disappears. Most traditional industry practitioners may not be accustomed to the rules, but such brutal games have been staged in a number of segments such as portals, online games, group buys, videos, and electric dealers, while in hand tours, on-line education and Internet finance.

"Buying a Peer-to-peer software may only take tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of, and it costs millions of," he said. So, if I'm going to be millions of tens of millions of, I can take a shot? Besides, I have some background experience in traditional credit industry. This is a question that my friends have been asking me in the last few months. I told them that it was too late to do it. Unless there is a very special background resources, or a very large, hundreds of millions of yuan investment, otherwise, the admission now, and also ready to do the industry the first few opportunities have gone. This is what I mean, peer-to-peer network loan "big" potential has gone. Only now in the industry's first group of the few more than 10 more than 20 have the opportunity to do bigger, but at the same time they will be safe, Ali, Tencent Annihilation, can survive, hope is slim-but there is hope. But if the admission is now to be bigger, has been basically impossible.

Zhi Xin a blow to many VC dilemma

From this point of view, you can also analyze the VC investment ideas. Most people think that Peer-to-peer network loan industry is far from mature, regardless of the general VC commonly used in various valuation methods, Peer-to-peer network loans Enterprises are not very high valuations. Moreover, the gap between the first Army is not big, why other peers are talking about tens of millions of yuan valuation or tens of millions of yuan investment, Zhi letter on the "hit" 130 million U.S. dollars about 800 million yuan investors loans? In terms of income, profit, size, number of employees, number of customers and other indicators, Can everyone lend a valuation of nearly 4 billion yuan? I think that the thinking of Zhi Xin is not here, Zhi Xin's investment ideas, based on the following several assumptions:

First, 35 years later, the market will only have 35 or even fewer big players oligopoly even unified.

Second, the current 35, is a Warring states potence stage, the market players up to more than 10 more than 20.

Third, the next stage, although the enterprises have to practice hard, but a large amount of money has become one of the core competitiveness. Players who cannot afford to burn can only leave the field.

If the hypothesis is set up, then the best strategy as a letter is to choose from the First Army the one that looks good and invests the world's most money in the internet finance industry (more than $125 million trillion in the Lending Club of Google), allowing them to quickly draw a gap with their rivals. At the same time, Zhi Xin's competitors are other VC. If the other VC because the amount of investment is too big to invest in this industry, then, the competition for everyone to lend less, more easily left to the king.

Now, in other peer-to-peer network lending industry has the investment intention of the situation in front of VC is very embarrassing. Even if you talk to a company a very cheap price, invest millions of tens of millions of yuan to get a very good stake, but, you vote or not? cast, unless you invest in the entrepreneurial team is a god, can be 10 times times less than everyone loans dozens of times times as much as the fodder can be with everyone to the same game can win, otherwise, Your investment must be a failure, not a vote. But do not vote, then completely lost the opportunity of rapid growth of the industry, Zhi-xin and everyone to lend a competitor less than one, they are more likely to succeed. A few years later, the letter received several times dozens of times times or even higher returns, how do you explain to your LP?

Zhi Letter Thunder A blow, let many VC dilemma. Therefore, many people believe that the letter is a person stupid money, in fact, Zhi Xin This investment strategy is carefully planned clever strategy, admire!

The best choice for Internet financial entrepreneurs: small and beautiful

Let's put aside the embarrassment of VC and discuss the situation of our entrepreneurs in the internet finance industry. If the forecasts are set up, then for most of us who are already on the pitch but are already very unlikely to be big, or, for the national tens of thousands of traditional microfinance institutions (small loans, pawn, guarantee, private lending, including some small and medium-sized banks) bosses, in the face of the tide of internet finance, we can only be bystanders? ?

The answer may not be so pessimistic. I think that even after several years of the emergence of several internet financial giants of the market to form an oligopoly, but there will be a large number of "small and beautiful" internet financial companies exist. The key is whether we can find a clear enough market segment, and in this market segment to form their core competitiveness, the formation of relative barriers and moat, so that the Giants can only cooperate with us. Take the electric business industry for example, Taobao Cat Jing East has basically formed an oligopoly, but in the market segments, such as the only goods will, poly-US excellent products, jiuxian nets, etc. or live very well, but also to do the listing.

So, in the field of Internet finance, even if Ping An, Ali, Tencent three integrated internet financial giants have been basically formed, and later the possibility of catching up with is very small, but if you insist on doing a niche focus on entrepreneurship, the likelihood of success will be much greater, such as focus on rural urbanization of the loan, For example, focus on the Internet mortgage industry, and so on. A few days ago a few young men to talk to me, ready to do renewable materials (commonly known as "collection of waste") industry peer-to-peer network loans. You do not laugh, I think this is a very good idea, I personally expressed strong support for them.

Therefore, with a relatively small investment, such as millions of tens of millions of of the input, to seize a niche market in-depth, with three years of time to cultivate tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of loyal customers, thus achieving a "small and beautiful" new internet financial enterprises, both feasible, And it may also be the best choice for most traditional microfinance institutions that are interested in entering the market.

Most of the ground-gas places are small microfinance institutions, can fully combine the local cultural characteristics of small micro-finance, the financial products, services combined with local cultural characteristics, with the idea of the Internet to transform, and the Internet to understand and support the local culture of the Internet financial consumers to provide special services. The Internet financial institutions, which can achieve the ultimate in subdivision or subdivision, cannot be defeated by other large Internet financial institutions with strong comprehensive strength. This is "small and beautiful".

"Small and beautiful" very good, how to do?

The following principles are worth considering.

First, self-and joint ventures simultaneously. Unless you completely abandon the idea of a place in the Internet financial sector, you must do it yourself. But their own experience is not enough, so, single-handedly, a joint venture, both hands.

Second: Small steps run constantly trial and error. Internet finance, and the traditional industry as soon as it is difficult to make money, the internet is often to invest a period of time. But our investment is not big, so we must insist on small steps to run. Do not pursue a perfect system from the outset, but from a small product, a small demand first breakthrough, accumulation of hundreds of, thousands of customers, and customers in the exchange of constant trial and error, and constantly familiar with customer needs, improve the user experience, improve business processes, and gradually add other appropriate products and business, Gradually increase the size of the business to drive revenue and profit growth.

Third: To seize the core of the brand and customers, others can cooperate or outsource. In the era of internet finance, only the brand and customers are their core assets, others can cooperate and outsource. Especially in the initial investment is not big, what all want to do is not realistic. Firmly seize the customer, service good customers, let customers around under their own brands, other aspects of the best from the industry and the impact of the organization began to start, and gradually accumulate experience, the right time to do their own, as China's reform and opening-up to introduce foreign investment, through cooperation, the most critical is to learn the valuable experience of pioneers, Shorten the time to explore alone. After all, the Internet is quick to play slow, not big hit small.

Conclusion

Whether Internet finance will subvert traditional finance is not important. If the Internet finance in the next 3-5 years or 5-10 years to achieve a relatively large market share, in fact, it must be more efficient than the traditional financial and more close to meet market demand. In this sense, a more healthy internet financial ecosystem than the traditional financial system will certainly gradually form. In this system, both towering trees, there are colorful flowers and grasses. The internet is a more emphasis on individuality of the era, more efficient information processing system for the diversification of the long tail to provide personal services, rich small but the United States to serve thousands of personalized consumer of the era will come.