The US group may not be able to meet its annual target again this year

Absrtact: This year, the industry's evaluation of the United States Regiment has been mixed. The American team is willing to see it as an industry star, from time to time to list all kinds of seemingly stunning data bluff, think it will become the next industry giants, and opponents of the United States Regiment overbearing

This year, the industry's evaluation of the United States Regiment has been mixed. The American group is willing to see it as the industry star, from time to time to list all kinds of seemingly stunning data bluff, that it will become the next industry giants, while the opposition to the United States Regiment "overbearing" attitude, and the development of its prospects have many questions. The U.S. mission's valuations are constantly changing in the noise, the 2014 near the end of the United States, the group next year to see the last 15 days of performance.

Bad news: The United States may be unable to meet its annual target again.

It may be bad news that the year-end wait for the US regiment. From the current group of 800 statistical data, the first 10 months the total turnover of the United States Regiment of 30.71 billion yuan, according to the annual group buying market trend, the remaining two months U.S. regiment monthly turnover to reach 4.65 billion some difficulties, this year the United States Regiment is likely to be unable to complete the annual goal.

In 2013, at the end of the recent years, Wang said in an event that the U.S. group turnover is difficult to achieve the expected 18.8 billion, but still can exceed 15 billion, eventually the United States Regiment 2013 annual turnover of 16 billion yuan, failed to complete the target. This year, the United States will not be able to achieve the goal again.

In January-October this year, the turnover of the United States Regiment was 20.41, 20.11, 23.93, 24.14, 29.06, 31.14, 38.40, 43.61, 37.79, 38.46 (billion). It is not difficult to find that the United States in August when the peak, the September performance decline, which is in line with the development cycle of group buying market, the regiment 800 according to years of data statistics will this phenomenon known as "the second half of the law."

According to "the second half of the law" in previous years, the group buying market in August reached the peak of turnover will appear after the fall, until November before and after can barely return to the level of August. In this way, the United States to achieve the target of 40 billion somewhat reluctantly.

This year's success will be more meaningful for the United States than it was in a critical period, compared with 2013 years of failure to complete the annual goal, and this year's outcome would be about the start of next year, which could easily be seen as a sign of American decline during this sensitive period.

The future of the United States is worrying, no money to earn is a dead hole

The only thing the United States can take out is all kinds of bright eye turnover, and when the year-end turnover can not be justified, it will inevitably become passive in the public opinion.

According to Wang at the beginning of this year, the completion of 40 billion of the turnover will have 1.9 billion of the revenue, is about 4.75% of the gross profit margin, and with the general comments and Baidu Sticky Rice continued to close, the United States Regiment's total revenue will inevitably appear to decline. itself 4.75% of the gross margin has been very low, although the group buying business can bring a very substantial turnover, but the lack of revenue capacity is a dead hole.

The United States and Beijing East different, Beijing East can be a loss of posture listed, the main is that it will invest huge sums of money into the logistics construction, and in the long run, a large amount of short-term spending will be in return for future sustainable returns, and, before the Beijing-east listing has completed the optimization of gross margin, from 09 of 4.8% rose to 9.8%. The U.S. map in the comments and the oppression of glutinous rice, it is difficult to do margin optimization.

Although the size of the United States is expanding, but not profitable is always difficult to avoid the problem, and the group purchase model itself basically no profit space, the scale effect can not bring significant profit growth. On the other hand, with the continuous infiltration of the 345-line cities, the United States Regiment this year's urban substation has been as high as 300, the number of employees has reached 8000 people, in per capita monthly wage of 2500 calculation, A year of 240 million of human spending is a heavy burden for a company that lacks profitability, and the cost of domestic labor is becoming more expensive.

In addition, there are all kinds of marketing expenditures, performance costs, the United States regiment operating pressure is rather heavy. Previous analysis said, in pursuit of exclusive cooperation, the U.S. Regiment for businesses to introduce a guaranteed subsidy, and this fee at least pay a monthly cost of 200 million yuan.

If the United States to a loss posture listed, obviously can not impress the capital market, especially in the case of Groupon, the United States group even the concept of the dividend period did not exist. Although the potential market of Chinese group buys is bigger, but the lack of earning capacity of group buying business is dead point, even the United States regiment itself is trying to create vertical business gradually transformation. However, from the market performance, the transformation resistance is not small, which also cast a shadow on the future of the United States Group.

East Dozen one shot West, multiple line combat prospects worrying

Obviously, the group itself is aware of the limitations of group buying business, to convince the capital market, the United States will need a new chip, so, the two years the United States to operate independently of the advantages of the business. However, the line of business is too broad to bring too many enemies to the United States.

First in the group buying market, in the acquisition of glutinous rice in Baidu, comments on the introduction of Tencent, the United States group in the main business of the two rivals apparently become the money of the "Shadow" giants. Viewing the regiment 800 of the data is not difficult to find, in the past six months, the United States has been unable to pull off the gap between the two, but in the business expansion and revenue was forced into danger.

And the U.S. group wants to expand the development of the takeaway business is not smooth. Home food sinks and hungry have completed 50 million and 80 million of billions of dollars of huge financing, Ali and Baidu also in heavy selling market. Not long ago, I got hungry. 300 million dollars in capital investment today. With the influx of huge sums of money, takeout has entered the stage of burning, with the United States, the current financial strength of the lack of the foundation of the take-away market is difficult to win.

At the same time, the United States Group also wants to extend its business to the online tourism market, and itself the entire online tourism market complex, each subdivision of the vertical field of many opponents, giants fierce competition, Ctrip, Art Dragon, where the game for many years, Tencent is supporting the same city, and Ali will travel business independent operation set up "Go Ah". In fact, the group in the hotel group purchase business volume accumulation, has aroused the OTA giants of the fierce counterattack.

In the film business, the United States has greater ambitions, in the "Flower Road release," When the cat's eye film became the joint production side, and said the pre-sale period to sell 1 million film tickets, creating a 40 million yuan pre-sale, the United States Group is announced to enter the film distribution market. However, "Flower Road" is the Yellow Sea, Xu starring Ning Works, on the basis of these three people in the film market, replaced by WHO to do pre-sale is not worried about the box office, to special cases as a general phenomenon, the U.S. regiment some too optimistic.

In addition, the United States Group has planned to launch commercial WiFi, but is now being censored. Public comment United Tencent Investment in the country's largest commercial WiFi provider Michael, to speed up the commercial WiFi layout, the United States Regiment regret missed opportunity.

At present, the United States to expand the field, no one is a good bone, if the use of these not dominant new business to add chips to the listing, it is obvious difficult to impress investors, but will attract investors ' worries. Front is too long, opponents too strong, too many hidden dangers, any one field failure is easy to produce a butterfly effect, resulting in the loss of a full plate.

Not worth 4 billion dollars.

In May this year, the United States to 20~40 billion dollars to complete the valuation of the 300 million U.S. dollars in the C round of financing, now look, the company's business capacity is not enough to support the 4 billion dollar valuation.

One months ago, Yin Seng, a veteran media man, had used extreme valuations to assess the market capitalisation of the US regiment. In the best case, the American regiment can obtain and Ali, Jingdong, the same market rate level, is expected this year 2014 Ali and Beijing East can reach 25 times times and 22 times times, assuming that the next few years, Alibaba and Beijing East growth is the same, the United States Regiment for their 1.3 times times, the U.S. mission's valuation is expected to close to 10 billion U.S. dollars.

However, the reality is clearly not so optimistic. Ali, Jingdong and the United States are in a different market position, in the electricity market, Ali is not shaken by the existence, but also has a strong profitability, the capital market to its sufficient recognition to get 25 times times the market rate, and the Beijing-east listing is to introduce Tencent as the cornerstone of investment talent to regain recognition of the capital market, The United States is not so optimistic about the situation.

In the group buying market, the United States does not have a large and not to fall market capacity, reviews, glutinous rice has been dead for nearly half a year, the United States Regiment was obviously restrained; on the other hand, the Giants crazy in the O2O field invested heavily, the U.S. group's growth prospects are not as optimistic as before; Operating pressure is increasing.

It would be more reasonable to use Groupon as a reference in the uncertain development outlook. Yin Seng points out that Groupon's market rate is about 2.4 times times the expected revenue in 2014, with the potential for a bigger China, where the U.S. group could grow 3 times times more than Groupon in the next few years, according to the U.S. group's 2014 1.9 billion (about $300 million) revenue, The valuations are probably just over 2 billion dollars.

If planed to the U.S. group growth forecast, the United States Group valuation only more than 700 million U.S. dollars, mainly because the U.S. regiment's revenue capacity than Groupon,groupon's gross profit margin between 50~60%, and the United States Regiment less than 5%. However, the U.S. group's growth prospects in the domestic market is impressive, in the use of market value, to give 3 times times the value-added of growth is not too much.

We can also look at the future market value of the American regiment from another angle, if the U.S. Regiment 2015 to achieve the target of 100 billion, 4.75% of gross margin, about 770 million U.S. dollars of revenue, when Groupon performance improved, the city sales rate can rise to 4 times times, the U.S. mission's valuation is only nearly 3 billion U.S. dollars. Group buying business is not profitable, is the main reason for the impact of the U.S. mission valuation.

In May this year, the group was able to finance $300 million trillion in 20~40 billion, which has been recognised by the capital market for its size, but the actual valuation is likely to be difficult to raise in a short time. With Groupon as a direct reference, it is difficult to get high valuations, and to impress the capital markets to raise valuations, the new expansion of the U.S. group business, but it is a time bomb can be detonated.

The combination of multiple disadvantages, the United States will not be able to obtain a higher valuation, the short-term value of 4 billion U.S. dollars is the limit, in fact, 3 billion dollars or more recognized by the industry.