What can you guess about 2014 years of payment industry forecasts?

The following are the 10 forecasts of BusinessInsider's 2014 digital payments, all from industry observations of the year and the real ability to change the industry.

NFC (Near-field communications payments) will die. Consumers will ultimately decide whether NFC will be universal, and the technology is not widely used. NFC technology enables the communication between the smartphone and the physical store payment terminals, i.e. "walletless" or "mobile payment (phone-poweredpayments)". But this payment is no more convenient than cash and credit cards. "It used to be a credit card, now it's a payment terminal with a mobile phone." Any improvements? What can be changed? People don't want this stuff. PayPal President David Marcus (Davidmarcus) thinks so. We share the same view as Marcus: 2014 will be a year of NFC withdrawal from the pay market. Although the technology has gained some clout in some markets, such as China and South Korea.

Second, the low consumption of Bluetooth technology (Bluetoothlowenergy) will conquer the retail industry. BLE is an NFC competitor and will revolutionize payments and retailing in 2014 years. Low-cost Bluetooth technology communication frequency can cover a maximum of 50 meters away, can be used in including payment, point-to-point transfer and message notification, discount promotion in the store and other types of applications above. In a recent report, we discussed the Beacon (BLE transmitter) that can be implemented based on the application of the store communication system. From a consumer's point of view, this technology is better than NFC because it does not need to be placed too close to the phone when it is paid, and payment devices that apply BLE technology can operate almost fully automatic-for example, when a consumer comes out of a store with a product, the payment is done automatically. This means that BLE is more convenient than credit cards or cash. The current Low-power Bluetooth technology has been built into more than 200 million iOS devices, in conjunction with Apple's ibeacon platform, and many Android systems support this technology.

The hotspot of Bitcoin will pass, and more people will use Bitcoin as a global means of payment. Next year Bitcoin will maintain its current volatility and continue to make a big shock. Such technical questions as what Bitcoin is and whether Bitcoin is a crazy conspiracy will be discussed again and again. But one thing will change: people will not discuss the price of Bitcoin, but start to look at it from the standpoint of inventing Bitcoin. Bitcoin was invented as an online tool for trading and value conversion. The infrastructure that Bitcoin pays will become more responsible, the platforms will emerge endlessly, and the risks of using Bitcoin transactions will end. At the time, individuals and businesses can implement bitcoin transactions on a global scale without having to worry about a bitcoin crash that could not be exchanged for another currency. Bitcoin will become more common-albeit not mainstream-especially for e-commerce and offline outlets that accept Bitcoin.

Amazon will make friends with offline shops and provide them with a payment platform. At the end of 2013, Amazon acquired Gopago, a company that offers mobile payment applications and store-retail software solutions. The acquisition suggests that Amazon appears to be planning to expand its offline retail payments business. We think Amazon is likely to release a relatively competitive payment plan for offline retail stores next year. Why do offline stores use Amazon's product services? Amazon is not a good friend. But Amazon is able to provide data analysis of consumer behavior and shopping habits to offline stores, and it is possible to charge very low credit card fees. After all, it's always been Amazon's practice to fight a price war with rivals-even if they sacrifice profit margins for a short time.

Five, the payment industry will open gradually integration, and quickly mature, there will be a group of mergers and acquisitions and a small number of IPOs listed. This includes square. The subversion of online and offline payments has already begun. We expect a lot of mergers and acquisitions – both consumer-oriented and business-to-business – and the industry's big predators will be online in the industry. Possible acquisition targets include Stripe, Dwolla, LevelUp and Bill.com, among others.

Carrier payments (carrierbilling) will have explosive growth in emerging markets. The biggest problem for consumers in emerging markets is that they can't use credit or credit card payments. Direct operator payments solve this problem, and mobile users can add payment items directly to the phone bill. Credit card companies are not yet ready to enter the low-income market, and operators can be lucky to play the role of payment networks, and share them with developers who have joined operators in app applications. This market demand is facing few competition, and the big operators in developed markets are best to increase exposure in the promising areas of the business.

With the increase in the offline retail market share and the entry into the E-commerce market, Square will shine next year. The company has largely led to a reversal of the offline payments sector, with Square's success largely a payment solution for small and medium-sized retailers, software and hardware, and the transfer of tablets and mobile phones into mobile cash registers. But the competition for square is mainly to provide payment for offline retail outlets and further gain market share for POS machines. In addition to the current business, Square is also involved in the competitive e-commerce sector, in this market, Square has a lot of effort to achieve the achievements of the previous years. However, as we said before, Square will be listed before the end of next year.

Eight, the concept of mobile wallet will be a great change in the idea. Only 11% of people in the United States have ever used mobile wallets, according to the forrester[>. We define a mobile wallet as an app or mobile site that collects payment information or credit card numbers from a particular consumer, and enables offline and online transfers. Many wallet applications are very beautiful in design, but they are not enough to convince consumers to use them. Credit cards are still a more convenient way. In other words, there is a "convenienceparity" issue where mobile wallet applications must become at least as convenient as credit cards and cash to be promoted. We believe that mobile wallet applications will be hugely successful if the mobile wallet can be readjusted to achieve an integrated (all) effect that places all consumer shopping and financial needs in one place: rewards, credits, airfare and boarding pass, shopping wish list, consumer record, personal budget, and so on. One example is Bluebird, an app-based credit card application and a personal financial services platform, founded jointly by Wal-Mart and American Express (americanexpress).

Retail banks will also compete with individual bank applications for mobile end and online users. The shopping and financial changes triggered by the mobile side are changing the relationship between retail banks and customers. In particular, the relationship between the two is increasingly happening online and at the mobile end, rather than offline banks. In order to differentiate themselves from competitors, banks will gradually become interested in providing app apps, and not just to provide inquiries, credit card payments, but to create a fully functional, affordable payment and financial platform, similar to the mobile wallet described earlier. Why is this so important? Because for banks, this technology subversion and disintermediation change is not out of the way. And startups that are already working with software, such as simple, are building new interfaces that basically serve as a new bridge between banks and customers.

Ten, mobile electricity business will account for 2014 holiday shopping one-third market share. In this year's "Black Friday" shopping season, mobile dealers accounted for about 20% of the market share of electricity dealers. As retailers roll out and improve their mobile apps, and the spread of mobile devices, we expect that mobile power companies will not only grow significantly but also accelerate growth. Next year's shopping season, we think that one dollar of every three dollars in consumption is in the online retail trade and is done through mobile devices.