When the sound of a takeover is a rumor or a fact

Recently, "When looking for a takeover" voice, is gossip or does it matter? Based on the available data, let's analyze one or two.

Where's the motive? Some say it is poorly run. Is that so? The answer is no.

From a financial performance perspective, when the operation is improving. The evidence is as follows:

First, when revenue continued to grow steadily, the net income of 2013 3 was 1.53 billion, an increase of 18.5% per cent year-on-year. Platform business GMV9.7 billion, year-on-year increase of 184%.

Second, more important than the size of the revenue is profitability. After the 2011 bloody battle, when both gross and net interest rates rebounded rapidly. We are in the analysis when the results of the last six months, when it is expected to achieve a short-term profit quarterly, from the 3 quarter performance, the loss rate has narrowed to 1.8%, profit in sight.

Why is profitability increasing? One is when the lower margin of the department store business to the platform transfer, proprietary business more focused on books, mother and child, clothing; the second is the strategic positioning in the "high-end online shopping center", such positioning has contributed to the product quality and customer unit price rise, the corresponding increase in gross margin; third, when precipitated a group of loyal customers, this group of customers of the older , purchasing power is stronger, and the new strategic positioning aims to develop this group of customers ' purchasing potential and is now receiving results.

The decline in operating costs is another testament to the improvement: Logistics costs are 11.8% in the 3 quarter of this year, the lowest value since the IPO, with marketing costs falling from 5.1% in the previous quarter to 3.8% per cent, and a total operating cost rate of 20.4%, the lowest since the second half of 2011. While operating costs have been reduced, the number of active users and new users has risen, reaching a record high of 8.9 million and 2.7 million, indicating that money has been spent more effectively.

Not only is the cost more effective, but the operational efficiency has also improved. As shown in Figure 2, inventory turnover and accounts payable period have declined year-on-year, according to past rules, the fourth quarter two indicators will be further down. Now the transformation of the basic success when no longer need to work with other comprehensive, so the account period will be healthier.

To sum up, we think that when the current operating conditions are very good, there is no need to sell themselves. Even if it is to be sold, it will wait for better performance, so that the price is higher. But everything will not be groundless, comprehensive road rumors, the most mainstream basis is that when there is no money on hand, that is really no money?

As of September 31 this year, when the cash and equivalent of the book is 298 million yuan, the maturity deposit of more than 3 months is 855 million yuan, plus 280 million of the holding to maturity of the investment, the total is 1.435 billion yuan. At the end of 2010 after the IPO, the three and 1.69 billion. So it seems that when there is not no money. Is that true?

Figure 3 tells us the other truth, where the operating capital (current assets-current liabilities) has been drastically reduced. This does not mean that when there is no money spent, it means that the risk of debt is increasing. Because of this, when the operation of more cautious, but also more and more efficient, the above marketing costs, logistics and warehousing costs change also confirms this. But this alone, when there is no need to sell their own, it is wiser to seek strategic investment. In addition, when the founders of the two couples will be willing to pull up the cause of the sale? When the transition is like a teenage girl, want to marry also to wait for adulthood?

Say "sell" and then talk about "buy". There are divergent opinions on motives for buying.

One argument is to "control the book market". However, when the development of their own path has been explained, the book market ceiling is obvious, online book market growth potential has been limited. It is of no value to buy to expand.

The second way is to "use the tail product" Sniper ' only product will '. When the "tail Goods sinks" quarterly business income of less than 100 million, to fight against 2.3 billion of the "only product will", unrealistic. And the potential of selling the market is not as good as imagined.

The third is "the experience of being able to accumulate a vertical operation after a while". There is only one motive for a businessman who wants to be a Taiwanese or an electric dealer. But when the 4.5 billion market capitalisation, to form absolute control of at least 2 billion, this is not a small number.

The fourth argument is "the user who circles the book business, because this batch of users is high quality". Personally think this is a more reliable statement. For buyers, when the greatest value may be its users, this group of people with the "high-end online shopping mall". Baidu, Tencent, Ali, Suning easy to buy, Wanda, etc. are in the rumors of buyers, who most need this group of users? On the surface, the line department stores are the most eager to get this group of users, but who has the financial resources to buy when it?

From the "sell" side, when there is no strong incentive to sell. From the "buy" side, the demand is not so urgent. We believe that "when seeking acquisitions" is not credible. In view of the current rising momentum, the wealthy large corporations and large institutions, consider strategic investment (which is what guoqing want) and make a more robust asset for your long-term equity portfolio, while for small and medium-sized enterprises or individual investors, consider buying stocks for a year or so, and if you make a profit, May consider long-term holding, if continue to lose money, then seek another way.