Yin Cheng: China's economic early V-shaped recovery

At present and in the coming period, China's economic development still faces very complicated situation, the task of promoting steady and rapid growth of national economy is still very arduous.　　There are both opportunities and challenges. China's economic initial "V"-shaped recovery deputy chairman of the National People's Congress Financial committee Yin Cheng after efforts, the Chinese economy has quickly reversed and curbed the continued decline in economic growth for 7 consecutive quarters, bottoming out in the first quarter of this year (6.1% per cent), with a stabilisation rally (7.9% per cent) in the second quarter of this year, The third quarter showed a warmer (8.9%) situation.　　This year, China's national economy and social development has been positive changes in the overall economic situation, stable to good, economic growth bottomed rebound, the initial realization of the "V"-shaped recovery growth.　　However, the momentum of economic recovery is still unstable, not consolidated, unbalanced, some of the policy effect of stimulating domestic demand and stabilizing external demand may decline, the national economy and social development still face many contradictions and difficulties. First, the expansion of domestic demand is still subject to a lot of constraints in the short term. Some industries and enterprises are still more difficult to produce and operate, the enterprise loss face is also at a higher level, investment and consumption capacity is restricted. Private investment has not yet been substantially initiated, and the scale of government-led investment faces sustainability challenges. The income growth of urban and rural residents is more difficult, and residents ' consumption is not enough. The grain has been reaping for many years, it is more difficult to promote the stable production and increase the farmers ' income continuously.　　As a result of some enterprises difficulties in production and operation, migrant workers income growth slowed. Second, the task of promoting industrial structure transformation and upgrading and energy saving and emission reduction is still arduous. The excess capacity resulting from high investment will continue, putting pressure on sustainable development in the medium to long term. The deep-seated contradictions and problems, such as unreasonable structure and the lag of changing development mode, have not been solved. Some of the industry overcapacity contradictions, capacity utilization is lower than the normal level. There are low-level duplication in some areas. The problem of the weak ability of independent innovation still stands out.　　It remains to be further strengthened to promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises and the elimination of backward production capacity. Third, the tension between fiscal revenue and expenditure is still outstanding. On the one hand, it is more difficult to keep steady growth of income next year. The overall reduction in policy adjustment is greater than the increase in income, structural tax cuts will continue to reduce revenue. The one-off factor for this year's revenue growth is gone next year. This year, a number of consecutive increases in textile, mechanical and electrical products such as export tax rebate factor will obviously affect income next year. Some industries and areas of business difficulties, corporate income tax growth situation is not optimistic. The recovery of the world economy is slow, import and export of foreign trade is difficult to recover comprehensively. On the other hand, the pressure on fiscal spending will increase next year. The base of financial expenditure is big and rigid.　　The gradual implementation of institutional performance pay, and so on, all need to increase spending, the expansion of the financial faced with persistent difficulties. The task of employment and Social security construction is heavy. The national town needs to arrange the employment to reach 24 million people each year, according to the current economic development speed pulls the employment, the town annual labor supply and demand gap is about 12 million. and 1.200 million the rural rich labor force needs to transfer employment. Next year there will be more than 6.3 million college graduates, and 5 million more "two children" (junior high school students who are unable to continue their studies after graduation) need employment. Old-age, medical, unemployment, urban and rural "minimum subsistence" and so on are the responsibility of local governments, pay levels in different places, local governments face balanced budget constraints.　　Whether from the angle of expanding domestic demand or from the angle of promoting economic growth, it is necessary to reform the social security system of our country and establish the social security system of national unification and central government. The external environment is still grim. Despite some signs of stabilisation in the world economy, the fundamentals of a rebound in the world economy are still fragile. Global credit market risk premium is still far higher than before the crisis, and financial institutions have a lot of losses have not been writedowns, financial sector risk factors remain more. All this will slow the economic recovery and China's rebound in exports is facing great difficulties.