70 large and medium-sized cities prices are the same as the chain double rise

This reporter Albert Chan Li Jiapeng intern Jiang Xiahiang National Development and Reform Commission, the latest survey of the National Bureau of Statistics shows that June, the country's 70 large and medium-sized housing sales prices rose 0.2%, the chain Rose 0.8%. This is the year since the country's 70 large and medium-sized housing prices for the first time on the chain double rise.　　The chain has been up for four consecutive months, and the increase month by week, of which, in March the chain Rose 0.2%, April-month rose 0.4%, May Quarter-on-quarter Rose 0.6%. Zhongyuan Real Estate managing director Li Wenjie said in an interview with reporters, in fact, from the first quarter of this year, the national housing prices have started to rise, now has returned to the rising channel, into the general rise and rally stage.　　It can be foreseen that the second half of the housing market demand is difficult to change the situation, or even in short supply. Statistics show that June new housing sales prices fell 0.6% Year-on-year, the decline was 0.7%, the chain Rose 0.8%, the increase than last month, the expansion of 0.1%, second-hand housing sales prices rose 2.2% year-on-year, the increase than the last month to expand 1.3%;　　The increase was 0.4% per cent from last month. Shanghai easy to live real estate Research department Minister Yang Hongxu pointed out that the trend of housing prices in the general lag of the change in the 4 months, such as the September 2007 chain is high, January 2008 year-on-year rise to High. August 2008 Month-on-month Decline, December only appeared year-on-year decline. March 2007 the chain from the fall to rise, June year-on-year from the fall to rise.　　Therefore, the second half of this year, the year-on-year rise will continue to maintain, and the increase continues to expand.　　To support the rise in house prices, Yang Hongxu that strong rigid demand, good macro policy, ample liquidity and inflation expectations of four factors to support the continued rise in the first half of housing prices.　　Li Wenjie pointed out that this year, the country's major cities in the average price increase has reached 20%, whether it is volume or house prices, 2009 years more than 2007 years should be no suspense.　　Cao, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that now is not only a hot house, even second-hand housing is also very popular, real estate overheating phenomenon has been more than 2007 years, if 2007 years of the real estate market is "ferocious", then the 2009 real estate market can be said A report from SouFun said that in the first half of 2009, the housing market in major cities in China rebounded strongly, demand performance was strong, and market turnover returned to the first half of 2007.　　Among them, Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other key cities year-on-year growth of close to or more than 100%, Shenzhen's turnover is increased by 150% year-on-year. The report analyses that the apparent pick-up in turnover in urban residential markets this year has been due to the release of pent-up demand in the depressed markets of 2008, on the one hand, and the cities at the end of 2008The effect of various rescue policies gradually emerged, so with the price of rational callback and financial credit support in the two aspects of personal purchasing power relative promotion, market demand gradually released. Cao said the rise in this round of house prices was mainly the result of excessive domestic credit. In the first half, 7.37 trillion trillion yuan bank credit at least 30% to 50%, that is to say, almost 3 trillion yuan of money into the real estate market. The capital inflow into the real estate market has any nature, not just mortgage, but also a lot of speculation. He cautioned that the current housing market bubble is increasing.　　If it is a normal credit policy, housing prices should be in the back channel, the price should be 2/3 now, but under the stimulus of too much credit, so that the entire real estate market "fuel". For future trends, SouFun reported that despite the June failure to extend the majority of the first four months of the most urban housing turnover continued to rise, but the same period in previous years, the market is still relatively active.　　Although in the next 7 August traditional sales off-season, turnover is still likely to continue downward, but with all levels of the future market expectations, the reduction of space is small. Cao is cautious compared with optimistic forecasts. He pointed out that the second half of the price will not continue to increase the momentum depends on the second half of the monetary policy. If the year's credit reaches 10 trillion trillion yuan, the country's house prices can rise to the end of year, and if the year's credit reaches 12 trillion yuan, national prices could rise to next March.　　However, inflation will probably be unavoidable by then. In this regard, Li Wenjie also said, it is noteworthy that, although prices are rising, but rents are falling, such a departure is obviously not normal, although it is still difficult to say whether there is a bubble, but at least the real estate market has been a sign of overheating, this should be vigilant and should be highly valued.