A number of experts worried about inflation, Li suggested adjusting deposit rates

Mr Li believes that the current conditions for adjusting deposit rates are basically ripe Li Mense The April Consumer price index (CPI) remained on the upward trend with a 2.8% rise to a 18-month high.　　Many experts have expressed concern about the future inflation situation, taking into account the twin objectives of managing inflation expectations and ensuring economic growth, and they believe that, in addition to continuing to use quantitative tools, exchange rate and interest rate adjustments are likely to occur at the right time. According to data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics, the April CPI continued its steady rebound since the first quarter, up 2.8% per cent year-on-year, compared with last month's quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4%;　　Expanded 0.9% from March, up 1% in the chain. At the same time, the central bank's monetary policy performance report, released yesterday, showed that the GDP reduction index (GDP at the current price and the ratio of GDP at constant prices, considered the best measure of comprehensive inflation) rebounded faster.　　In the first quarter, the rate of decline in GDP was 4.8%, up 7.3% from a year earlier, and 6.6% higher than the previous year. Yesterday's a-share was not boosted by the rally in Europe and the United States, but high drive low.　　Close Prev fell 51.98 points, the decline of more than 1.9%, Prev set below the early adjustment low point 2639.76, become the lowest since May 2009. Changes in the "inflation" and "growth" double target price levels fall into market expectations.　　Analysts also generally believe that CPI will continue to rise, and reached a high level in 6 July, and with the increase in input inflation pressure, domestic resource product reform, the continued increase in production prices will dominate PPI continued upward. Zhang Chengshi, associate professor of finance and finance at Renmin University of China, pointed out that although the recent inflation level measured by CPI is relatively moderate, but in the context of the current rapid rise in real estate prices and the apparent inflation expectations, it is more necessary to pay attention to the broad price index including real estate prices (i.e. GDP deflator)　　Dynamic trend.　　He calculates that the inflation rate measured in CPI in the first quarter of 2010 was 2.5%, but if the GDP deflator were accounted for, the inflation rate would be 9.5% per cent. "The cause of this round of price increases is cost-driven, but if monetary policy is too loose, it could escalate the cost-driven inflation to more severe inflation."　　"The Central Bank monetary Policy Committee member, Tsinghua University, director of the World Economic Research Institute," said the first financial daily.　　Monetary policy, however, cannot be diverted merely to manage inflationary expectations, while maintaining a certain level of economic growth. In the first quarter of this year, GDP rose by as much as 11.9%, with a strong rebound in purchasing managers ' indices in March, a single-month trade deficit and a "shortage of migrant workers", with many signals appearing to show signs of economic heatDegree.　　Many people believe that China's economy is likely to overheat. But at the moment, the risk of a rapid economic slowdown is increasing. In particular, the recent introduction of a series of real estate control measures, making asset price bubbles unsustainable.　　At the same time, the Greek debt crisis has sparked fears of big swings in global financial markets this year. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said: "The likelihood of bias is reduced, but it does not go to the extent that the economy appears to have bottomed out two times." "Li also pointed out that this round of economic growth is largely independent of real estate investment, mainly the" iron, public and basic "project pull.　　So even if there is a big adjustment in real estate prices, the impact on economic growth will not be too serious. The price tool will be in the year. Since economic growth is not too much of a worry, where will monetary policy go next?　　He believes two things should be paid attention to: to control excess liquidity and to manage inflation expectations. This year, regulators have been very strict in lending to financial institutions.　　The broad-currency (M2) growth rate has remained down for five consecutive months. Lianping that the central bank to increase the open market operations, the three increase in reserve requirements, the window of credit to guide measures such as the effect has emerged, the second half of the monetary policy will continue to be dominated by quantitative regulation, reserve ratio may also be further upward.　　The much-watched price tool-exchange rates and interest rates-is likely to be adjusted in the years to come. "At present, the exchange rate adjustment is inevitable, not long delay." Whether to raise interest rates will take into account the rise in prices and negative interest rates, but also to consider the exchange rate. If prices in May ~ June The pressure is still large, can not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates before and after the year.　　"Lianping said. Li believes that the current conditions for adjusting deposit rates are basically ripe. "The aim is to stabilize the expectations of savers, not to panic and withdraw money from the banking system." "However, Yuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, believes that the economic recovery of major economies is uncertain, that exports will face a more severe situation in the second half of this year, and that the scale of credit will remain large until the projects invested last year are successful;　　Will expand the U.S.-China spreads, causing hot money inflows, and raising interest rates will be difficult to implement. In his view, the window of possible interest rate increases in the year after the two quarter, that is, whether the export outlook is clear, if the export situation is clear, the rate hike can be adjusted together with exchange rates policy.　　If not, there may not be interest rate hikes throughout the year, "the key is to see the economic situation."　　Societe Generale economist Lu Commissar that if the 3-year central vote does not change from the current weekly issue to the issue, then, between June 11 ~ 25th, there is a renewed increase in the legal reserve requirements of the possibility of reserve ratio. The chief economist of CICC advises that there is a need to increase policy flexibility in the future, and that after the introduction of more measures, it may be possible to consider entering a period of policy wait-and-see period. "It was expected to appreciate in the two quarter., the three-quarter rate hike, now seems to be postponed. Economists say the exchange rate is not just an economic issue, but also influenced by political factors. Therefore, the time window of the exchange rate adjustment should also be more mature in the political environment. The use of exchange rates and interest-rate instruments should be weighed against policy effects.