A white paper published by China Mobile at the World Mobile Communications Conference

February 25, 2014, a white paper released by China Mobile at the World Mobile Communications Conference (Congress) caused a wave of waves.

The "Next Generation Fusion communications white paper" says that operators, including China Mobile, will directly integrate mobile terminals ' communication capabilities and mobile Internet experience from the operator's level.

For example, users do not need to install the application alone, you can directly like micro-letter, WhatsApp, imessage like, through the flow of data to send text, pictures, location and other content, in the absence of data networks, the case, only through text messages sent.

Subsequently, the move was interpreted as a mobile phone and other operators have "abandoned the text message."

But in fact, is that the right thing to read? I think there is a problem.

First, not operators to give up the text message, but users are giving up text messages.

A week ago, I have written an article, "The horse inflection point of telecom operators": The Chinese Spring Festival in 2014, the number of text messages sent by more than 2013 dropped by more than 40%, in this trend, means that operators of SMS has come to a historical inflection point, and the decline may be higher than expected.

Why is that? Obviously, as the user's social migration, habits change, and cost considerations (the cost of social tools is much lower than SMS by traffic charges), instant messaging tools such as micro-mail have replaced the main functions of SMS and MMS.

So, if the message is going to be "abandoned", then it is only the user, not the operator, who abandons it.

Second, the message function is still irreplaceable, at least in the short term, can not be completely abandoned.

1, SMS more stable. In many places where there is no data transmission or data transmission instability, SMS still ensures timely delivery of information.

2, in some specific scenes, SMS still has advantages. For example, user flow exhaustion, or not open (or has been actively closed) data services, as well as the international roaming process (at present, users receive text messages abroad for free, but the data roaming charges are high).

3, in the payment, shopping and other security requirements for the high network applications, SMS is widely used for cross authentication.

4, in the instant communication brought about by the information explosion, the other party in time to read the message may be much larger than instant messaging.

5, to sum up, SMS is only part of the functional market is replaced with diversion, but it is not really "give up", at least, not now.

Thirdly, there are still a lot of uncertainties in the fusion communication.

1, the future integration of communications charges, how to charge (on time or by flow, as well as specific costs), is not clear.

2, the operator's fusion communication implementation, is through the app or mobile phone transformation??

If it is an app, can it form a scale??

If it is a mobile phone, then, these features to be built into the mobile phone, and allow users to complete the machine, this is not a short time to complete the work.

3, to the operator's support system, to complete the integration of communication transformation, still need time to transform/new, and running-in trial and error.

4, for operators, the integration of communications to the business formation of the impact will be greater than expected.

If the change is limited to information, data and other links, the voice business is still intact, it and the past, flying, fly chat and other applications are not obvious, it is difficult to shake the micro-letter has formed an advantage.

If according to the official saying, to call, short message, contact and so on full integration and flow, it is expected to create a new experience for users, but this will also bring another problem: it will not only impact SMS revenue, in fact will be the life of voice income.

How will the operators choose??

In any case, as far as I am personally, the convergence of communication is the general trend, this is the operator has long been a step forward.