An analysis of O2O's career choice for his friends

Carving ye made a nail industry O2O products, so that the United States and industry craftsmen to serve you, than to shop convenient, affordable. Let's hear how the Eagle analyzes O2O's business.

--to a friend O2O career analysis

Hi, Old Zhou, this article is written to you. Know that you have recently been entangled in O2O's career analysis, because you are a very high value of people, so choose to be cautious, choose the wrong, not the thousand million losses, but also a lifetime of glory bets and ups and downs.

"Strategy is to stand in the future to see today"--this is the most important word I learned from Professor Zeng. But what is tomorrow's appearance? Just want to analyze yesterday, then bet tomorrow, and then do well today. Just like the big bat trio, must have time successively rise, this is the logic of "Yesterday"--Baidu must first rise, because he directly from information advertising to make money, this does not need too many related industries mature, so the first implementation will be the flow of liquidity; Because Tencent's model is to the flow of traffic to the game can be changed, and bandwidth speed, it is necessary to rely on others, broadband is not popular, is unable to drive the network game boom; Taobao last, no way, from payment to logistics, to "integrity system", early 10 years without a reliable, must wait slowly mature, live their own cultivation, But all mature, Ma Yun became China's richest man ... And you see, the later mature, the greater the harvest, the higher the market value.

Baidu model, I call it "the";
Tencent mode, I call it "the universe to be moved";
Taobao model, I call it "nothing."
O2O also has such a "mature" process.

The earliest mature, undoubtedly and Baidu a truth, pure information diversion. For example, the public comment network is like this ... Will line the customer, through the information means, "leads", diversion to the offline entity shop, the way of making money, they find is buys. This everyone can understand, not much to say.

Currently being mature, is to "Hungry Mody", "Home Gourmet" and other app as representative, will be the real restaurant food, end to the customer's home-the point is that these restaurants are not sold out, and they are hard to help restaurant delivery, look forward to one day unification, with the Emperor to make princes, to make a "Heaven and the Universe move" money.

Beaver Home nail A bit like Taobao, the third model, does not necessarily have to work with the offline entity shop, simply do not shop, "out of Nothing", will be offline entity nail shop down, the liberation of those nail division, simply door-to-door to do nail. Of course, this is the slowest, the most risky, the most toil ... In the future, the service industry is the most thoroughly subversive part of the Internet, in this third phase.

Above, is an "industrial mature axis", in fact, it is not too important.

Here's what's more important: the consumer decision side.

Any business, only involved in the decision of consumers, is the core of the comparison. The corresponding, why some O2O industry rise so fast? Because the secret is that the consumer's decision-making mechanism, there is a huge difference. And at least three levels:

1, the random decision-the so-called "light decision", representing the industry such as taxi, cleaning, foot therapy, etc., these industries are characterized by low-cost, high-frequency or even UHF words, consumers spend a few minutes to decision-making, decision-making wrong, loss is not small. And there is little difference in the level of service providers, which need not be deliberately chosen, because services are relatively "standardised".

2. At the discretion of the decision-the so-called "medium decision", representative industry such as hair, nail, photography, modelling and so on, these industries are characterized by medium-priced, medium frequency, a two weeks to a few months, consumers will spend half an hour or more to make decisions, homework, to choose, for BAA? Because of the haircut, Mom's one months are very upset, okay? Do men think it's important to be a bad nail? Not important, because men are not beautiful. And women feel like a piece of crap as ugly nail, is determined not to go out. These industries are characterized by a large gap in service provider standards and no "standardization" at all.

3, prudent decision-making-that is, the so-called "heavy decision", representing the industry such as wedding planning, real estate agents, divorce lawyers ... The characteristic is the life not to use several times, but regrets the life with the mistake. The service provider's level gap can be in the sky or underground ... Even consumers do not know what service they expect to receive, and there is no "standardized" concept. The advantage is that the customer unit price is really expensive, a single is tens of thousands of dollars or even hundreds of thousands of.

This column out, at a glance, why tick a taxi, quick taxi so fast rise? Without him, the standard features of light decision, low price and high frequency. However, there is a great mystery-light decision-making business, is the platform side the most difficult to make money! Because as I said before, the service relative "standardization", and this is behind the service provider (that is, taxi drivers, cleaning aunts) in fact, the income is similar, are unwilling to be divided into the platform side. To say the worst, you don't want to "exploit" them.

Once you want to charge, you're screwed. Because another platform is free, replace you immediately. Think of that year the biggest electric business platform is ebay, because the largest, so I think the charge is OK? Later？ There is no later ... Today, Taobao also does not charge, and never charge-the charge is the day cat, and the logic of the cat, is what I want to talk about:

"Industry boundary" issue.

This is a more important topic, close to my use of the title, "Win-win hand" problem. This problem is wrong, or ignorant, it is likely that the next in O2O brutal competition, death do not know how to die ... Even, it is likely to engage in a half-day, become 8848 and fun, up early to catch a late set, you become a paving stone, education industry and consumers, watch others when the milestone and the richest man.

The boundary divides into "four axes"--first said first axis, is "the profession axis", takes the industry as the Axis development and the expansion. This example is the most, drip, fast of course is the "travel car" on this axis. The Magic Net is the axis of all legal services ... Beautiful armour, doodle nail? Is around the nail industry this axis. (Just beautiful A is want to when the United States nail industry, the public comment network for the physical store diversion; and doodle Nail Direct Cottage Beaver Home, no cottage understand, later will speak. ）

The second axis is the "crowd axis". For example, 58 and the fair, are around the "blue-collar crowd" axis, you see although they carry out countless business, but no matter recruitment, second-hand or find cleaning aunt, cleaning hood, are focused on blue-collar people. And we beaver home, in fact, is the "crowd axis" on the product, our strategy is "first-line urban white-collar women in the United States." A few words, sketched is a crowd, rather than a specific industry-the United States is actually very big ~ ~ One day the beaver home out of photography, you should not be surprised, because we define the female photo photography inside the United States.

The third axis, is "scene axis", the representative app is Ding Dong Community, the community worry-free, the love fresh Bee and so on, the business is also very complex, the crowd is difficult to be specific, the core is: serves the specific area, basically is the community scope, the scene is the basic localization.

The fourth axis, is "buy the axis", oh, this basic can also be counted as "resource axis" ... All can provide "coupons" of the industry, the public comments, the United States are involved in the group, the brain can be complementary.

After talking about these four basic axes, and combining the rich information of the opening one, I will judge it.

I call it "four beats."

1, "low-frequency" not hit "high-frequency";

2, "The general type" cannot beat "the expert type";

3, "Wool out on the sheep" beat "wool out of the pig";

4, "Monopoly consumers" cannot fight "monopoly service".

The first best explanation, in the app age, is that the frequency of open, still iron law, similar to the "decision-making mechanism" and "industry relevance" under, who the frequency of high who survived. At this point, I will see all the current "generation driving" industry, for example, you can not put the drip, fast pure as "taxi industry", you see, they have now begun to encroach on the "Car" field. Then, minutes will be involved in the "driving" field-for 99% of ordinary people, a taxi to find the frequency of car, far higher than the frequency of future generations, but also the key is that all taxi drivers can not take taxis to the side, and then temporarily as a substitute driving it? As long as the price is reasonable, also save fuel money.

When all of the "x generation" industry has at least 15 minutes or even half an hour to come to you for a ride, drop fast they can be a driver in 3 minutes, and cheaper, who do you use? Industry relevance is exactly the same, the mental correlation is exactly the same, are random decision-making areas, to a skilled driver is good, handsome no one cares, and the taxi driver is probably more reliable than the people who have a driver's license? ...... So forgive me for being blunt, just like the Amoy that was too vertically broken down and the good music to buy, playing in the field of shoe sales ... Finally, also do not have to win----Taobao continued to be big, unknowingly put the two of the crush was gone ... Your core business in other people's "industry boundaries", and you are low-frequency others high-frequency, remember the three-body language? "I destroy you, but it has nothing to do with you." ”

Then you must ask, is it easy to use the car? Easy to be a typical "travel car" field Ah! Yes, what I'm going to say is, it's easy to conform to the second theorem I'm talking about: "Generic" Can't beat "expert type".

I happen to be a drop-and-go user, so I have a very good say: when I temporarily randomly use the car, definitely drop better so that they can always send a taxi or a limousine, the problem is, sometimes I travel in cities, business with cars, or to take into account the face, at this time, models good or bad, condition, The driver service quality, is all I care about the details-the price is not very sensitive at this time, I experienced several times the result is easy to the business people with the car level ahead.

Note-At this point, I transition from "random decision" to "discretionary decision".

Do not underestimate this transition, this is what I often say why give home to please a cleaning and to the home please a month sister-in-law is two professions completely! Because your focus is completely different, speak more rudely: Well done cleaning the company will not force dry month sister-in-law! The converse is also true. Because "generic" companies must focus on market share and cost control, these upside down, is a set of enterprise internal strength and concept of molding, once the fight up, and the same positioning of the opponents, must be tough to do, can be tough, the more difficult to transform ... "expert" enterprises, often not enough emphasis on cost control and share, But for the understanding of a particular consumer--such as my business car--it's easy to focus on the details--unmatched sophistication and sophistication that can be easily seen in the "car-making" crowd.

3rd What do you mean? "Wool out of sheep" beats "wool out of pigs"--tell us about the Beaver family. At present, a lot of Shanzhai copy Beaver Home, but interestingly, they are not easy to dig from the traditional physical shop of the nail division, not long ago, the resignation ran to the beaver home ... Why? Because the beaver's platform has no commission (and promises never), and a lot of money from the nail teacher, such as training, equipment, even endowment insurance. And those cottage Beaver home nail, the main is to earn commission, this comparison, no wonder the nail division-job-Beaver home earn what? Future money. Now lose a few billion, but the future of China's hundreds of millions of of the U.S. share, there are too many lucrative industries ...

Fourth, mainly on the areas of "discretionary decision-making" and "prudent decision-making". In these two areas, service providers differ too much, and bad services only accelerate the death of the platform. And good service, it can not be like to find a cleaning aunt that training for three days on the job (who will not clean the housework?) I will! , but you casually find a personal month sister-in-law try?

Of course, the extension of this, you have to talk about 3 hours, old week, or recently met chat, I spent the last one months, plus years of internal force accumulation, thinking of the "Beaver home Seven Weapons" thinking map to tell you. For "Discretionary decision" field, at least at seven levels of simultaneous exerting force, it is possible to laugh to the end, any one link is missing, will create an advantage of the opponent, resulting in the loss of a full plate.

An inattentive, found code more than 3,000 words. Although there are some details did not unfold, but I think, the big pattern analysis is this. O2O the next few years of "victory and defeat Hand", should not run out of these basic logic of the comb! As for who loses who wins, is in the above a few big frame, competition development speed, financing rhythm, team execution ability ... But after all, some O2O team "starting point" now look has been wrong, do not be careful, as if you are familiar with the early years of the Amoy brand "Mai Bao Bao" and "green Box", team and financing (hundreds of millions of) are very cattle, but the strategic choice of a big problem, a brand, ran out of Taobao to do independent official website, the result of a mess ...

Business leaders, or to learn a little strategy, in case the wrong direction?

Strategic mistake, delay can not only VC, there are countless small partners of the future and hope. So thinking about it, I decided to send this letter alone in the hope of helping more entrepreneurs with a little bit of strategic thinking.