Beijing and Shenzhen first-line investigation: Three mysteries of mortgage New deal

Wangfangyan Lucion soldiers Ding Yuping April 19, the State Council on resolutely curb the price of some cities in the rapid rise of the notice issued after the first working day.　　A bank of the Shenzhen branch of the retail director of the office, dozens of of the backbone of the loan business, a staff of a document to explore the new deal on the banks and the impact of the strategy.　　This scene, almost become the day of the domestic banks "universal picture." Reporter in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen Three survey found that with the two suites first Shengcheng, the interest rate has been generally tightened different, almost all banks to three suites and more housing loans approval, have stalled.　　If in Shenzhen, in addition to ICBC took the lead in announcing the implementation of the State Council loan New Deal, CCB, ABC, deep Development, Merchants Bank has stopped orders, static waiting for the introduction of the rules.　　Commercial banks, including China Merchants Bank, Huaxia, Everbright, CCB and BOC, said that they were studying the establishment of mortgage rules to strictly implement the policy requirements of the State Council. At present, it can be determined that the new deal will be "the old and newly zoned", the stock of mortgage customers do not request. "All bank mortgage rules are expected to be in full before the end of April," he said. "But the rules set out by the head office are still framed and have some flexible operating space for different regions," a banker predicts. "The common suspense facing the three banks is: Who will finalize the three-room parking in which areas?" What is the definition standard of the second suite?　　How do retail banks get out of the impact of the new deal?　　Three-room parking area, who hammered out?　　The State Council requests that commodity housing prices are too high, rising too fast, supply tight areas, commercial banks may, according to the risk situation, suspend the purchase of third sets of housing loans and above. The key to the new deal is how to define "commodity housing prices are too high, rising too fast, the supply of tension areas"?　　Who defines it? Statistics show that in March 2010, the country's 70 large and medium-sized cities, compared with the same month last year, the largest increase in sales price of new commodity housing 5 cities are: Haikou 64.8%, Sanya 57.5%, Wenzhou 22.3%, Jinhua 20.9%, Guangzhou 20.3%.　　Second-hand housing sales price year-on-year rise of the largest 5 cities are: Sanya 50.4%, Haikou 40.4%, Shenzhen 23.9%, Wenzhou 18.6%, Yinchuan 16.2%. "How to define price rises quickly?" Horizontal comparison or longitudinal comparison, the chain or year-on-year?　　"A joint-stock Commercial bank loan head confused. "Although the increase is not conspicuous, but said that Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen is not the national price is too high, rising too fast, tight supply areas, it is expected to become a joke."　　Said a lender in charge of a large state-owned Shanghai branch.　　In fact, the bank to identify the "region" is very difficult, one is that the standard is not clear, and two if the banks in the region to implement the policy is not the same, the mortgage policy enforcement banks will be bound to shrink market share, obviously for their business development disadvantage. As a result, banks are currently not clear about the three suite policy. "There is no uniform definition of a bank scuffle that is bound to affect the seriousness of policy, I think it's up to the local governments to come up with their own policies.　　The bank said. China Merchants Bank's reply to this newspaper said that for the three-suite mortgage policy, the branches will be strictly implemented according to the requirements of local government and regulatory authorities.　　This has laid the groundwork for the "principle of territorial delimitation". April 19, the Shanghai municipal government has convened an emergency meeting, the Shanghai Housing Security Bureau, Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau and other relevant participants.　　The Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau has consulted some banking institutions before the meeting to solicit policy opinions and suggestions.　　However, local government revenue depends on land transfer, and its interests are closely related to real estate prices, so the local government's attitude to the new deal is inevitably ambiguous.　　One regulator believes that housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have been significantly out of the income level, with regulators demanding a substantial increase in the down-payment ratio for multiple suites, or even the current 40% down payment, and proposing to raise the level of loan interest rates, or even 1.1 times times the benchmark rate.　　This means that, whether or not to stop the loan, the three-room mortgage threshold significantly increased is the inevitable trend.　　How many suites are defined by number?　　According to the State Council "more stringent differentiated housing credit policy" requirements, for loans to buy a second housing households, the first payment of loans shall not be less than 50%, the loan interest rate must not be less than 1.1 times times the benchmark rate. April 19, ICBC, BOC has been implemented immediately.　　ICBC 16th, said that the purchase of the first set of home and set the building area of 90 square meters above the family, the first payment ratio of loans should not be less than 30%. Two suites, such as the definition of the standard, has always been a new deal on the vague area of property. The notice said, "People's Bank, CBRC to guide and supervise commercial banks strict housing consumption loan management." The Ministry of Housing and Urban construction shall work with the People's Bank and the CBRC to establish a second set of housing standards.　　"The interpretation of the market is that the second suite of standards will be more and more stringent, and may not even be based on the number of loans, but the family name of a few units to define the latter is significantly more stringent than the former." There are media reports, for new customers, the CBRC-related leadership clear instructions "not to the limit of the loan occurrence, in strict accordance with the first set, two sets, many sets."　　The implication is that, as long as the customer family name registered property, loans to buy a second housing, regardless of whether the previous use of loans, must be in accordance with the new rules of the State Council implementation. "No such document has been received yet."　　"A number of commercial bank lenders said that the second set of housing standards based on loan records, but the conditions are significantly higher than before."　　The supplementary circular on strengthening the management of commercial real estate credit, issued in December 2007, had made it clear that the first set of home ownership households had been used for loans from banks, for example, if the household per capita of the borrower's home was below the local average, it could be compared with the first home loan policy. "Although there are many improvements in the two suite demand, but also a lot of investors to take advantage of this policy gap, access to the first suite loan concessions."　The regulators said.　A commercial bank personage told the reporter, since January this year, they have gradually abolished to improve the housing loan discount, also means that regardless of the per capita area is below the local level, regardless of whether the loan is repaid, as long as the credit, is counted as the second suite.　　However, there are commercial banks in the April 15 after the new deal, only to tighten the gap.　　In fact, even if the country issued two suites to determine the standard policy, in practice, there is still a wide range of "circumvention" of the alternative, the first Shengcheng number can also be flexible treatment.　　Prior to this, Shenzhen has a bank account manager and real estate agents in private "cooperation" to customers "fake divorce" form, will be two or even multiple suites customers packaged into the first suite of customers, to get low down payment and preferential rates. "Online has a special agent for this fake divorce certificate information, 300 pieces." "In the view of the Shenzhen stock Bank, this is not a bank's inability to detect it," he said.　　In the future even if the standard norms, due to differential credit costs, is expected to still have many customers gray operation, reduce the cost of home purchase. The first Shengcheng number of housing loans to deal with, some banks also by doing high assessment price to reduce the customer down payment in disguise. A small number of small and medium-sized banks will work with two or three types of assessment companies to lend at assessed prices after the assessment price of their homes, with a more than 10% or more than 20% down payment in the past, according to a large mortgage broker.　　Some large banks will "spared" the quality of customers, such as customers can bring a comprehensive benefit, can be based on the loan assessment benchmark on the basis of 10% floating, to give preferential loans. Recently, the CBRC asked for an increase in the "visit" procedure, or to a certain extent, to reduce the number of high assessment prices.　　However, the Shenzhen stock Bank people said frankly, "by the pen to implement more difficult." Many bankers believe that the most effective way to curb the false appraisal of real estate is the abolition of the "yin-yang contract."　　If the land sector is forced to transfer by the property mortgage price, through the tax means to increase the cost of housing, will greatly curb the false assessment and speculation.　　Retail banks fall to freezing point? From the banking business, the new deal will obviously bring a certain impact on retail banks.　　Another state-owned bank estimates that its credit targets will be half done by the end of the new deal. In the first quarter, the Shanghai new RMB personal consumption loan 37.84 billion yuan, more than 32.69 billion yuan year-on-year increase. Housing loans accounted for the bulk of this, personal housing loans increased by 33.81 billion yuan.　　The real estate enterprise credit and individual housing loan increment sum amounted to about 80 billion yuan, occupies the Shanghai first quarter renminbi credit increment 163.9 billion yuan about half. "Shanghai personal mortgage accounted for a very high, accounting for real estate loans about two-thirds."　　"said one person familiar with the matter. Haitong Securities analysts believe that the short-term requirements of the increase in down payment and unreasonable demand will reduce the growth of bank personal housing loans, it is expected that the start of new loans in May will come down, two sets of housing interest rates and above the sharp increase in the level of the bank can be to a certain extent by the price replenishment, but the new mortgage rates are expected to increase the rate of not fullyTo make up for the decline in loans, interest income may be a short-term drop in the situation.　　At present, the joint-stock banks, China Merchants Bank, Societe Generale, and deep development have clearly put forward the business direction.　　With interest rate discounts, lower yields and tighter loan lines, the bank is inclined to do business with High-yield "commercial loans" (shops, offices).　　Societe Generale, said that in recent years, the bank has deliberately compressed the mortgage, February or March, the amount of small, instead of encouraging grassroots research "operating loans", in the assessment, the rating is also tilted to such loans. But in the deep development view, the mortgage in the bank's total loan proportion already high, the latent risk is bigger. An insider says the bank is expected to reduce its mortgage business, but it can make up for mortgage losses by expanding its business, with tighter regulation and a tightening of home mortgages. With the state-owned large branch of the strengthening branches of the growth rate and market share assessment, the bank did not give the mortgage line pressure, just to reach the beginning of the target can be set.